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3 reasons why the Bitcoin price bottom is not in

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3 reasons why the Bitcoin price bottom is not in

Bitcoin (BTC) recovered modestly on Aug. 20 but remained on course to log its worst weekly performance in the last two months.

Bitcoin hash ribbons flash bottom signal

On the daily chart, BTC’s price climbed 2.58% to $21,372 per token but was still down by nearly 14.5% week-to-date, its worst weekly returns since mid August. Nonetheless, some on-chain indicators suggest that Bitcoin’s correction phase could be coming to an end.

That includes Hash Ribbons, a metric that tracks Bitcoin’s hash rate to determine whether miners are in accumulation or capitulation mode. As of Aug. 20, the metric is showing that the miners’ capitulation is over for the first time since August 2021, which could result in the price momentum switching from negative to positive.

Bitcoin Hash Ribbon. Source: Glassnode

Nonetheless, Bitcoin has been unable to shrug off a flurry of prevailing negative indicators, ranging from negative technical setups to its continued exposure to macro risks. Therefore, despite optimistic on-chain metrics, a bearish continuation cannot be ruled out. 

Here are three reasons why Bitcoin’s market bottom may not be in yet.

BTC price rising wedge breaks down

Bitcoin’s price decline this week has triggered a rising wedge breakdown, suggesting more losses for the crypto in the coming weeks.

Rising wedges are bearish reversal patterns that form after the price rises inside a contracting, ascending channel but resolve after the price breaks out of it to the downside, which could result in a drop to as low as the maximum wedge’s height.

BTC/USD daily price chart featuring “rising wedge” breakdown setup. Source: TradingView

Applying the technical principles on the BTC chart above presents $17,600 as the rising wedge breakdown target. In other words, the Bitcoin price could fall by approximately 25% by September.

Bitcoin bulls are misjudging the Fed

Bitcoin had surged by approximately 45% during its rising wedge formation, after bottoming out locally at around $17,500 in June.

Interestingly, the period of Bitcoin’s upside moves coincided with investors’ growing expectations that inflation has peaked—and that the Federal Reserve would start cutting interest rates as soon as March 2023.

The expectations emerged from the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s FOMC statement from July 27. 

Powell:

“As the stance of monetary policy tightens further, it likely will become appropriate to slow the pace of increases while we assess how our cumulative policy adjustments are affecting the economy and inflation.”

Nonetheless, the most recent Fed dot plot shows that most officials anticipate the rates to reach 3.75% by the end of 2023 before sliding back down to 3.4% in 2024. Therefore, the prospects of rate cuts remain speculative.

Implied Fed funds target rate. Source: Federal Reserve

St Louis Fed president James Bullard also noted that he would support a third consecutive 75 basis point raise at the central bank’s policy meeting in September. The statement falls in line with the Fed’s commitment to bring inflation down to 2% from its current 8.5% level.

Related: Options data shows Bitcoin’s short-term uptrend is at risk if BTC falls below $23K

In other words, Bitcoin and other risk-on assets, which fell into a bear market territory when the Fed began an aggressive tightening cycle in March, should remain under pressure for the next few years.

If history is any indicator…

The ongoing Bitcoin price recovery risks turning into a false bullish signal given the asset’s similar rebounds during previous bear markets.

BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

BTC’s price rebounded by nearly 100%—from around $6,000 to over $11,500—during the 2018 bear market cycle, only to wipe-off the gains entirely and drop toward $3,200. Notably, similar rebounds and corrections also took place in 2019 and 2022.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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4 On-Chain Metrics Show the Bitcoin Price Is Primed for Bullish Explosion

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4 On-Chain Metrics Show the Bitcoin Price Is Primed for Bullish Explosion

Amid recent macroeconomic extremes, Bitcoin has maintained a quiet stance, almost eerie for its HODLers. Nonetheless, its hashrate and accumulation are soaring — what could this mean for its price?

Bitcoin has been consolidating in a narrow range between $18,800 and $20,200 since the mid-Sept price fall. In volatile markets like cryptocurrency, similar quiet periods of consolidation are rare. 

Recent Glassnode findings show that the current BTC price action resembles both pre-crash November 2018 and pre-rally March 2019. Despite price downturns, mining and accumulation statistics are improving. Let’s look into what this means for the health of the network.

Bitcoin hashrate makes new ATH 

Last week, the Bitcoin hashrate made a new all-time high of 242 exahashes per second.

Source: Glassnode

In the chart below, we can see that Bitcoin’s longer-term, slower hash ribbon was once again overtaken by the faster ribbon, indicating improved mining conditions in late August. Since the price saw no major uptick during this time, the rise in hashrate was likely due to more efficient mining hardware and more mining rigs working in general.

Source: Glassnode

Historically, these hash ribbon moving average swaps precede price gains. Historically, when the hash-rate drops and subsequently recovers, major BTC price bottoms have been made. 

Is a price bottom in?

Apart from the hashrate, Bitcoin accumulation levels also reached a 7-year high. CryptoQuant data shows that 6-month-old and older Bitcoins now make up 74% of the realized cap. During the 2019 and 2015 bottoms, this score sat at 70% and 77%, respectively.

Source: CryptoQuant 

Lastly, for the first time in this cycle, the percentage of supply in loss has reached the 50% level.

CryptoQuant data shows that the price bottoms during previous cycles normally occur when the percentage of supply in loss reaches 50% or more.

Source: CryptoQuant

The current data shows the highest percentage of losses at 52% on the daily chart, 50.4% on the weekly (7DMA), and 48% on the monthly (30DMA). 

While quite a few metrics suggest that BTC should be near a bottom, the overall momentum will likely still depend on macroeconomic conditions as well as its correlation with the Nasdaq and S&P 500. 

Disclaimer

All the information contained on our website is published in good faith and for general information purposes only. Any action the reader takes upon the information found on our website is strictly at their own risk.

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Bitcoin price sees first October spike above $20K as daily gains hit 5%

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Bitcoin price sees first October spike above $20K as daily gains hit 5%

BTC price action sees a new October peak amid a declining U.S. dollar and a successful prior day’s trading for U.S. equities.

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Bitcoin price sees first October spike above K as daily gains hit 5%

Bitcoin (BTC) saw its first trip above $20,000 on Oct. 4 as traders expected familiar resistance to cap gains.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Multi-week dollar lows fuel Bitcoin bulls

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/United States dollar climbing prior to the Wall Street open, up over 5% in 24 hours.

The pair had shaken off macroeconomic concerns at the start of the week, with trouble at Credit Suisse and the escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict failing to slow performance.

Now, the short-term analysis focused on a run potentially topping out closer to $21,000 — as was the case late last month, as sell-side pressure at that level remained significant.

“20500-21000 is a sell zone. If price gets there, which should, don’t be too bullish,” popular trader Il Capo of Crypto told Twitter followers on the day.

Razzoorn, an analyst at international trade group The Birb Nest, noted that the current charge was Bitcoin’s fifth attempt at escaping a major liquidity cloud in several weeks.

Despite the potentially limited upside opportunity, Bitcoin rallied in line with a broader risk asset tide which saw United States equities finish noticeably higher the day prior.

At the same time, the U.S. dollar suffered, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) extending losses to approach 111 points and threaten support in place since mid-September.

U.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-day candle chart. Source: TradingView

“Up the market goes,” a more optimistic Michaël van de Poppe, CEO and founder of trading platform Eight, continued:

“Flipping $19,500 for support. Now, if range-high at $19,600 holds for Bitcoin, I assume we’ll continue towards $22,400.”

Altcoins attempt to change sticky trend

Across major altcoins, it was Ether (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) leading daily performance at the time of writing. 

Related: CoinShares’ Butterfill suggests ’continued hesitancy’ among investors

ETH/USD traded above $1,350, still yet to break out of its sideways trend in place for several weeks since major losses entered during the post-Merge breakdown.

ETH/USD 1-day candle chart (Binance). Source: TradingView

XRP, on the other hand, faced a more stubborn band of resistance after prior gains, bouncing off multi-week support just below $0.45.

XRP/USD 1-day candle chart (Binance). Source: TradingView

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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McDonald’s starts to accept Bitcoin and Tether in Swiss town

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McDonald’s starts to accept Bitcoin and Tether in Swiss town

The global fast food chain is among the first to participate in a crypto-friendly experiment in the town of Lugano.

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McDonald’s starts to accept Bitcoin and Tether in Swiss town

Multinational fast food chain McDonald’s started to accept Bitcoin (BTC) as a payment method in the 63,000-populated city of Lugano in Italian Switzerland, which is becoming a hotspot for crypto adoption in Western Europe. 

A one-minute video of ordering food on McDonald’s digital kiosk and then paying for it at the regular register with the help of a mobile app was uploaded on Twitter by Bitcoin Magazine on Oct. 3. The Tether (USDT)  logo could be spotted next to the Bitcoin symbol on the credit cash machine, which is not surprising, as in March 2022 the city of Lugano announced it would accept Bitcoin, Tether and the LVGA token as a legal tender.

On March 3, 2022, the city signed a memorandum of understanding with Tether Operations Limited, launching the so-called “Plan B.” According to this plan, Tether has created two funds — the first one is a $106 million, or 100 million Swiss francs, investment pool for crypto startups, and the second is around $3 million, or 3 million Swiss francs, attempt to encourage the adoption of crypto for shops and businesses across the city.

In addition to allowing Lugano residents to pay their taxes using crypto, the project will extend payments to parking tickets, public services and tuition fees for students. More than 200 shops and businesses in the area are also expected to accept crypto payments for goods and services.

Related: Swiss Post’s banking arm developing in-house crypto custody platform

Speaking to Cointelegraph in June, Paolo Ardoino, chief technology officer of Tether and Bitfinex, claimed that Plan B “is going great,” announcing a two-week educational activity on blockchain and cryptocurrencies in the city.

In September 2021 El Salvador became the first country in the world to allow using Bitcoin as a legal tender. Since that time, McDonald’s has been accepting Bitcoin at all its 19 outlets in the country.

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