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Bearish pennant breakdown confirmed? 5 things to watch in Bitcoin this week

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Bearish pennant breakdown confirmed? 5 things to watch in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week in a precarious place — below $45,000 and below some key moving averages. What’s next?

Almost a week after a cascade of leveraged position unwinding forced the market to $42,800, Bitcoin has erased most of its subsequent recovery.

The weekend produced little by way of a paradigm shift, and now, downside volatility is firmly in place. With BTC/USD down 13% in a week, Cointelegraph takes a look at five things that may help traders to anticipate what the next move could be.

Stocks due for a rebound

Stocks are expected to perform better this week after selling pressure added to Bitcoin’s woes in the first half of September.

With a red week behind them, expectations are that equities will now rally, continuing a trend that had characterized markets since the coronavirus crash in March 2020.

“Expecting equities to bounce this week and provide some relief for Bitcoin,” Charles Edwards, CEO of investment manager Capriole, forecast.

Bitcoin’s overall relationship with macro trends has been increasingly called into question over the past year. Nonetheless, shocks to the system continue to influence BTC price action, as evidenced by the Federal Reserve Jackson Hole virtual summit earlier in September.

“The world still sees Bitcoin as a risk on asset,” Edwards added in comments alongside a comparative chart.

“Almost every Bitcoin correction in 2021 has correlated with a S&P500 correction of -2% or more.”

BTC/USD vs. S&P 500 annotated chart. Source: Charles Edwards/Twitter

On the flip side, strong stocks may serve to keep the strength of the United States dollar in check, something that also gives Bitcoin more room to breathe.

The U.S. dollar currency index (DXY) saw a brisk move toward 93 last week before halting to consolidate its gains, a process that continues.

Spot price sags further below bullish metrics

Macro moves could be the deal-breaker when it comes to this week’s BTC price trajectory, forecasts argue.

After ranging over the weekend, Sunday saw last-minute volatility that ended in BTC/USD slipping below $45,000.

With spot traders hedging their bets on more downside, there has arguably never been a bigger disparity between on-chain metrics, adoption phenomena and price.

“Stablecoin liquidity increasing, bitcoin on exchanges hit a 3-year low, normies awaken,” Moskovski Capital CEO Lex Moskovski summarized.

“If macro doesn’t shit the bed, the next leg up is programmed.”

Moskovski later added that macro markets had indeed begun the week in the green and that stablecoins, not used as shorting collateral, made a clear bullish argument.

Stablecoins are at all time high and not used as a collateral for shorts.

Legacy finance opened green.

What is your thesis for selling, soldier? pic.twitter.com/J2PMtsRVWn

— Lex Moskovski (@mskvsk) September 13, 2021

As Cointelegraph reported, current estimates eye $43,000 and $38,000 as potential price floors, with a rebound from such levels still possible despite being well below important moving averages.

September has been a historically poor-performing month for Bitcoin, and as such, price predictions favor the “real” upside to recommence from October onward.

“Remember more often than not bitcoin has a red month in September and a big price move in Q4,” popular Twitter account Lark Davis told followers Monday.

“BTC can still hit 100k by end of year.”

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Nonetheless, veteran trader Peter Brandt is sounding the alarm — at least for the time being.

“There is a name for this chart pattern. Anybody want to take a guess what it’s called?” he tweeted alongside the daily chart showing what appears to be a breakdown of a bearish pennant construction.

“Dancing with 2017”

It’s not all doom and gloom — when it comes to this halving cycle, Bitcoin this year is still “dancing with 2017” in terms of price gains.

That’s according to data from trading platform Decentrader, which this week signals that BTC/USD in 2021 is still on track for the year after a block subsidy halving.

“Dancing with 2017 at the moment,” Decentrader analyst Filbfilb said in comments over the weekend.

Bitcoin bull run comparison chart. Source: Decentrader

The chart shows the extent to which May’s miner rout upended progress. Formerly between 2013 and 2017 gains, Bitcoin then dropped to forge a new lower paradigm in May, a trend that ultimately continues.

As Cointelegraph reported, a “double top” phenomenon remains analysts’ bet for how Bitcoin will round out 2021 — just like in 2013 and 2017 — with a price dip in between correlating to May’s trip to $29,000.

New all-time high for monthly illiquid supply

A feature that has set last week’s price dip environment apart from previous ones is investor behavior — everyone kept buying.

Unlike the panic during episodes such as March 2020, last week saw excess supply dumped onto the market by speculators eagerly bought up by strong hands.

According to statistician Willy Woo, every class of Bitcoin investors has either added to its positions or stayed neutral through the recent turbulence.

“Whales added recently. Minnows continue to stack. 10-1000 BTC holders mainly flat,” he revealed Sunday alongside data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode.

“Reserves held publicly reducing (mainly exchanges and ETFs reducing while corporates adding).”

Bitcoin supply distribution chart. Source: Willy Woo/Twitter

If Bitcoin’s supply is more in demand than ever, similar data reinforces the point. As analyst William Clemente noted, last week had little no impact on hodler patterns.

“93% of Bitcoin’s supply hasn’t moved in at least a month. This is an all-time high. Just another metric showing how bullish supply dynamics are,” he commented, citing Glassnode data.

Bitcoin HODL waves annotated chart. Source: William Clemente/Twitter

Where once was greed now comes fear…

It’s all change for investor sentiment gauge, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which this week is posting some curious data about market emotions.

Related: Top 5 cryptocurrencies to watch this week: BTC, ALGO, ATOM, XTZ, EGLD

The dip to $42,800 slashed its readings from “extreme greed” to “fear,” a sentiment zone that lingered all the way until Sunday.

As the weekend ended, however, the Index added some fresh “greed” to the mix — despite price action actually falling further.

At the time of writing Monday, Fear & Greed stood at 44/100 — still in “fear” territory — while BTC/USD traded below $45,000.

Crypto Fear & Geed Index. Source: Alternative.me

Funding rates across exchanges, being slightly positive, nonetheless do not discount the possibility of a “short squeeze” boosting price performance.

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BTC, ETH, XRP, ZEN, UNI, OMG, AXS — Technical Analysis Sept 28

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BTC, ETH, XRP, ZEN, UNI, OMG, AXS — Technical Analysis Sept 28

Bitcoin (BTC) was rejected by the $44,000 horizontal resistance area.

Ethereum (ETH) is following a descending resistance line and potentially trading inside a descending wedge.

XRP (XRP) is following a descending support line.

Horizen (ZEN) has broken down from an ascending support line.

Uniswap (UNI) has broken out from a descending wedge.

OMG Network (OMG) is following an ascending support line.

Axie Infinity (AXS) has broken out from a descending resistance line.

BTC

On Sept 27, BTC was rejected by the $44,000 resistance area and created a long upper wick (red icon). This is a bearish sign since the area had previously been acting as support, and the rejection now validates it as resistance.

Technical indicators in the daily time frame are bearish. Both the RSI and MACD are decreasing. The former is negative while the latter has just fallen below 50.

The next closest support area is found at $38,000.

ETH

ETH has been decreasing underneath a descending resistance line since Sept 3. Most recently, it was rejected by the line on Sept 16.

Due to the long lower wicks, the support line cannot be accurately determined. However, it’s possible that ETH is trading inside a descending wedge.

Despite the wedge normally being considered a bullish pattern, technical indicators are neutral. The RSI is right at the 50-line and the MACD is below 0, although it is increasing.

Therefore, the direction of the trend cannot be accurately determined at the current time.

XRP

XRP has been following a descending support line since Aug 17. So far, it has been validated multiple times, most recently on Sept 21. The final touch of the support line (green icon) also coincided with the 0.618 Fib retracement support level at $0.85.

Despite the fact that XRP is trading above a confluence of support levels, technical indicators are not bullish. The RSI is at the 50-line and the MACD is negative, even though it is moving upwards.

The closest support and resistance levels are found at $0.76 and $1.07 respectively.

ZEN

ZEN has been decreasing since Sept 15, after creating a double top pattern and a long upper wick. The pattern was also combined with a bearish divergence in the RSI.

Shortly after, it broke down from an ascending support line. The breakdown is supported by the MACD and RSI, which are both decreasing.

The closest support area is found at $53.

UNI

UNI has been decreasing since Sept 2. After the Sept 7 drop, it created a descending wedge, which led to a low of $17.73 on Sept 26.

However, UNI rebounded and broke out from the wedge. The breakout is supported by the increasing MACD and RSI.

The closest resistance area is found at $26.15, created by the 0.618 Fib retracement resistance levels.

If UNI is successful in moving above it, it may move toward new highs.

OMG

OMG has been following an ascending support line since July 20. However, since Sept 6, it has failed to break out above the $10.60 area, which is the 0.618 Fib retracement resistance level.

Despite the rejection, technical indicators are bullish. The RSI has generated a hidden bullish divergence and the MACD is positive.

Therefore, an eventual breakout would be likely. This could take OMG toward the $15.33 all-time high price.

AXS

AXS has been increasing since Sept 21 when it bounced at the $48.28 support area. The next day, it created a bullish engulfing candlestick and broke out from a descending resistance line.

Following this, it reclaimed the $63 horizontal area and validated it as support.

Both the MACD and RSI are increasing, supporting the continuation of the upward movement.

The next resistance area is found at the all-time highs of $94.50.

For BeInCrypto’s latest Bitcoin (BTC) analysis, click here.

Disclaimer

All the information contained on our website is published in good faith and for general information purposes only. Any action the reader takes upon the information found on our website is strictly at their own risk.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Fails to Move Above $44,000 Resistance

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Bitcoin (BTC) Fails to Move Above $44,000 Resistance

Bitcoin (BTC) attempted to move upwards on Sept 27 but was rejected by the $44,000 resistance area.

While BTC is still trading inside the upper portion of a descending parallel channel, the price action is lacking bullish signals.

BTC gets rejected

On Sept 27, BTC made an attempt at moving above the $44,000 area but was promptly rejected (red icon). The area had acted as support in August and the beginning of September but turned to resistance after the breakdown on Sept 20. The rejection created an upper wick and a bearish candlestick. 

Besides trading below resistance, technical indicators for BTC have turned bearish as both the RSI and MACD are decreasing. The MACD has just crossed into negative territory while the RSI is below 50. 

If BTC were to continue moving downwards, the next closest support area would be found at $38,000.

Current channel

The six-hour chart shows a descending parallel channel, which usually contains corrective structures.

Currently, BTC is trading inside its upper portion. Furthermore, it’s trading just above the 0.5 Fib retracement support level.  

Despite being above a confluence of support levels, technical indicators are bearish/undecided. The MACD is negative and has lost its strength while the RSI has just fallen below 50.

The two-hour chart shows that BTC is following an ascending support line and has made three higher lows since Sept 21. While this can be seen as a bullish structure, the price action is not bullish. 

The previous resistance area at $43,000 that was expected to act as support did not. On the contrary, BTC fell right through it. Furthermore, both the MACD and RSI have turned bearish.

While there is very strong support at $41,500, created by the 0.786 Fib retracement support level and the ascending support line, the price action does not seem bullish.

Wave count

The most likely wave count still indicates that the decrease from Sept 7 to Sept 21 was part of an A-B-C corrective structure, in which waves A:C had an exact 1:1 ratio. This is also supported by the presence of the descending parallel channel.

However, the movement since the low does not seem impulsive, casting some doubt on the possibility of this being the correct count.

Alternative counts could see the movement as a flat A-B-C corrective structure (upper image), or in the more bearish case a 1/2-/1-2 wave structure (lower image). 

At the current time, the correct count cannot be determined.

For BeInCrypto’s previous Bitcoin (BTC) analysis, click here.

Disclaimer

All the information contained on our website is published in good faith and for general information purposes only. Any action the reader takes upon the information found on our website is strictly at their own risk.

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Europe becomes largest crypto economy with over $1T in transactions — Chainalysis

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Europe becomes largest crypto economy with over $1T in transactions — Chainalysis

DeFi has become a major catalyst for Europe’s crypto economy. Large institutions have also upped their share of transactions significantly.

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Europe becomes largest crypto economy with over T in transactions — Chainalysis

The region of central, northern and western Europe, or CNWE, has emerged as the world’s most active cryptocurrency block, receiving over $1 trillion worth of digital assets over the past year, according to new research from blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis. 

The report, which was released Tuesday, found that the CNWE region accounted for 25% of global crypto activity between July 2020 and June 2021. The region witnessed a sharp uptick in transaction volume across all crypto sub-categories, especially decentralized finance, or DeFi.

Chainalysis describes crypto transactions as anything involving trade, investments and business dealings.

Europe has also become a hotbed for institutional investing, with transactions values in this category growing to $46.3 billion in June 2021 compared with just $1.4 billion in July 2020. Perhaps surprisingly, the United Kingdom is the single largest crypto economy in the region at $170 billion worth of transactions. Nearly half, or 49%, of the value was sent via DeFi protocols.

“The U.K.’s growth is driven mostly by growing institutional investment, based on the large-sized transfers driving most of its transaction volume,” Chainalysis senior content marketing manager Henry Updegrave told Cointelegraph. 

A secular bull market for Bitcoin (BTC), the growth of competing smart contract platforms and the arrival of decentralized finance all contributed to crypto’s massive rally during the study period. It comes as no surprise that CNWE’s crypto market activity peaked in May 2021 during the height of the bull market, which was one month removed from Bitcoin hitting $64,000.

Chainalysis’ data corroborates a growing body of evidence showing that large institutional investors have become a driving force within crypto. Wealth managers, family offices and other institutional players have poured billions of dollars into Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) investment products offered by Grayscale, CoinShares, 21Shares and others.

Related: Crypto asset manager Cobo raises $40M to launch DeFi-as-a-service

Beyond the advanced economies of Europe, Chainalysis research has documented the growing uptake of crypto in emerging markets. The Chainalylsis 2021 Global Crypto Adoption Index named Vietnam, India and Pakistan as the leading countries for adoption based on on-chain value received, retail transactions and peer-to-peer exchange trade volume.

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