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Bitcoin bear market will last ‘2-3 months max’ —Interview with BTC analyst Philip Swift



Bitcoin bear market will last ‘2-3 months max’ —Interview with BTC analyst Philip Swift

Bitcoin (BTC) may see more pain in the near future, but the bulk of the bear market is already “likely” behind it.

That is one of many conclusions from Philip Swift, the popular on-chain analyst whose data resource, LookIntoBitcoin, tracks many of the best-known Bitcoin market indicators.

Swift, who together with analyst Filbfilb is also a co-founder of trading suite Decentrader, believes that despite current price pressure, there is not long to go until Bitcoin exits its latest macro downtrend.

In a fresh interview with Cointelegraph, Swift revealed insights into what the data is telling analysts — and what traders should pay attention to as a result.

How long will the average hodler need to wait until the tide turns and Bitcoin comes storming back from two-year lows?

Cointelegraph (CT): You’ve pointed out that some on-chain metrics such as HODL Waves and RHODL Ratio are hinting at a BTC bottom. Could you expand on this? Are you confident that history will repeat this cycle?

Philip Swift (PS): I believe we are now at the point of maximum opportunity for Bitcoin. There are numerous key metrics on LookIntoBitcoin that indicate we are at major cycle lows.

We are seeing the percentage of long-term holders peak (1yr HODL Wave), which typically happens in the depths of bear market as these long-term holders don’t want to take profit until price moves higher.

This has the effect of restricting available supply in the market, which can cause price to increase when demand does eventually kick back in.

Bitcoin HODL Waves chart. Source: LookIntoBitcoin

We are also seeing metrics like RHODL Ratio dip into their accumulation zones, which shows the extent to which euphoria has now been drained from the market. This removal of positive sentiment is necessary for a bottom range to form for BTC.

RHODL Ratio is highlighting that the cost basis of recent Bitcoin purchases is significantly lower than prices paid 1–2 years ago when the market was clearly euphoric and expecting +$100k for Bitcoin. So it is able to tell us when the market has reset in preparation for the next cycle to start.

Bitcoin RHODL ratio chart. Source: LookIntoBitcoin

CT: How is this bear market different from previous BTC cycles? Is there any silver lining?

PS: I was around for the 2018/19 bear market and it actually feels pretty similar. All the tourists have left and you just have the committed passionate crypto people remaining in the space. These people will benefit the most in the next bull run — as long as they don’t go crazy trading with leverage.

In terms of silver linings, I have a couple! First, we are actually a fair way through the market cycle, and likely through the majority of this bear market already. The chart below shows Bitcoin performance each cycle since the halvening, and we are already around the capitulation points of the previous two cycles.

Bitcoin bull market comparison chart. Source: Philip Swift/ Decentrader

Second, the macro context is very different now. While it has been painful for bulls to see Bitcoin and crypto so heavily correlated to struggling traditional markets, I believe we are soon going to see a bid on Bitcoin as confidence in (major) governments crosses downwards beyond a point of no return.

I believe this lack of confidence in governments and their currencies will create a rush towards private “hard” assets, with Bitcoin being a major beneficiary of that trend in 2023.

CT: What other key on-chain metrics would you also recommend to keep an eye on to spot the bottom?

PS: Be wary of Twitter personalities showing Bitcoin on-chain charts cut by exotic/ weird variables. Such data very rarely adds any genuine value to the story shown by the major key metrics and these personalities just do it as a way to grab attention rather than genuinely trying to help people.

Two metrics that are particularly useful in the current market conditions:

The MVRV Z-Score is an important and widely used metric for Bitcoin. It shows the extremes of Bitcoin price moving above or below its realized price. Realized price is the average cost basis of all Bitcoin purchased. So it can be thought of as an approximate break-even level for the market. Price only ever dips below that level in extreme bear market conditions.

When it does, the indicator on this chart dips into the green “accumulation” zone. We are currently in that zone, which suggests that these may be very good levels for the strategic long-term investor to accumulate more Bitcoin.

Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score chart. Source: LookIntoBitcoin

The Puell Multiple Looks at miner revenues versus their historical norms. When the indicator dips into the green accumulation band, like it is now, it shows many miners are under significant stress. This often occurs at major cycle lows for Bitcoin. This indicator suggests we are close to a major cycle low for Bitcoin if we have not already bottomed.

Bitcoin Puell Multiple chart. Source: LookIntoBitcoin

CT: Your fellow analyst Filbfilb expects BTC to reverse course in Q1 2023. Do you agree?

PS: Yes, I do. I think traditional markets probably have a bit more downturn going into early 2023. At worst, I see crypto having a tough time until then, so probably another 2–3 months max. But I think the majority of fear will soon switch toward governments and their currencies — rightly so. Therefore I do expect private assets like Bitcoin to outperform in 2023 and surprise many of the doomers who are saying Bitcoin has failed and is going to zero.

Related: Bitcoin analyst who called 2018 bottom warns ‘bad winter’ may see $10K BTC

CT: October is a historically bad month for stocks — not so much for Bitcoin. How long do you expect BTC to be in lockstep with risk-on assets and what will be the catalyst?

PS: Bitcoin has been a useful forward-looking risk indicator for the markets throughout much of 2022. What will change in 2023 is that market participants will appreciate [that] most of the risk in fact lies with governments, not with traditionally defined “risk” assets. As a result, I expect a narrative shift that will benefit Bitcoin next year.

The actions of the United Kingdom’s government around their mini-budget two weeks ago were a key turning point for that potential narrative shift. Markets showed they were prepared to show their disapproval of poor policy and incompetence. I expect that trend to accelerate not only for the U.K. but in other countries also.

CT: Are you surprised at Ethereum’s poor performance post-Merge? Are you bullish on ETH longer term with its supply-burning mechanisms?

PS: [Ether] (ETH) had a strong short-term narrative with the Merge, but it was within the context of a global bear market. So it is not surprising that its price performance has been lackluster. Ultimately, the overall market conditions dominated, which was to be expected.

Long term, though, Ethereum is set up to do exceptionally well. It is a critical component of Web3, which is growing exponentially. So I am very bullish on Ethereum over the next couple of years.

CT: What is the best jurisdiction for a Bitcoin/ crypto trader today?

PS: Somewhere that is low-tax and crypto-friendly. I personally think Singapore is great and there is a growing crypto scene here, which is good fun too. I have friends who are in Bali, which also sounds great and is more affordable.

CT: Anything you would like to add?

PS: Resist any temptation to quit crypto near the bottom of the bear market. Just be patient and use some good tools to help manage your emotions.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Whale Watching: The Top 5 Crypto Transactions of the Week



Whale Watching: The Top 5 Crypto Transactions of the Week

Bitcoin takes the throne for this week’s 127,351 BTC ($2,062,504,721) whale transfer out of Binance into an unknown wallet on Nov. 28, 2022, while an Ethereum whale transferred about 231,782 ETH ($274 million) on Nov. 28, 2022.

Binance reportedly paid $0.42 in transaction fees to move the large volume of Bitcoin in a bid as part of an audit process with the goal of greater transparency following the collapse of FTX. It assured users of the exchange that all their funds were safe.

Three Major Whale Transactions Done by Binance, Admits CZ

Additionally, the crypto exchange made at least two other whale transactions of around 200,000,000 BUSD, its native stablecoin, on Nov. 30, 2022. Binance was responsible for 81% of the roughly $3.2 billion of all whale transfers in the past week, with these two similar transfers tied for the fifth position.

Binance CEO Changpeng ‘CZ’ Zhao took to Twitter to allay fears of malpractice at the exchange, stating that a third-party auditor requires Binance to transfer a certain amount of crypto to itself to prove that the company owns the wallet. The remainder goes to another address, called a “Change Address.”

This is part of the Proof-of-Reserve Audit. The auditor require us to send a specific amount to ourselves to show we control the wallet. And the rest goes to a Change Address, which is a new address. In this case, the Input tx is big, and so is the Change. Ignore FUD! https://t.co/36wUPphIZk pic.twitter.com/2NkH5L5J9j

— CZ 🔶 Binance (@cz_binance) November 28, 2022

Other cryptos coming in close behind Binance’s Bitcoin transfer is the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, Ethereum, with almost $560 million transferred in two transactions of 231,736 ETH ($272 million) and 231,782 ETH ($274 million). Validators were later rewarded with $1.32 and $2.51 in transaction fees.

In both cases, the source and destination addresses were unknown. Crypto Twitter has speculated that the first transaction could have involved Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin. Earlier this year, he reportedly dumped 3,000 ETH to DeFi protocol Uniswap V3 shortly after news broke of the failure of FTX.

Fueling the speculation was the fact that Buterin had moved 30,000 ETH out of his self-custodial wallet in May 2022, prompting speculation that Ethereum would dump later. However, it turned out that the transferred funds were set aside for charitable donations.

Whale Transaction Unlocks XRP From Escrow

Rounding up the top five is the transfer of 500,000,000 XRP ($204 million) from an escrow wallet to an unknown address on Dec. 1, 2022. The escrow is essentially a smart contract on the XRP Ledger, written to dispense locked tokens once certain external conditions are met.

In 2018, Ripple launched an initiative to release 1,000,000,000 XRP at the start of each month through an escrow to create a predictable supply of its native coin. 

Accordingly, the transfer of 500,000,000 XRP was followed by transfers of 400 million and 100 million coins to unlock 1,000,000,000 XRP for Dec. 2022. In the past, Ripple has kept 800,000,000 coins, choosing to lock up the remaining 200,000,000 XRP for a new release.

Summary of the Top 5 Whale Transactions

The top five transactions for the week were:

5. 200,000,000 BUSD ($200,080,000) was transferred from Binance to an unknown wallet on Nov. 30, 2022, followed by a transfer of the same amount of BUSD from an unknown wallet to Binance.

Tx costs: $3.31 and $1.27

4 – 500,000,000 XRP ($204,402,898) was unlocked from escrow at an unknown wallet on Dec. 1, 2022.

Tx cost: Not available

3 – 231,736 ETH ($271,829,771) was transferred from an unknown wallet to another unknown wallet on Nov. 28, 2022.

Tx cost: $1.32 

2 – 231,782 ETH ($274,046,462) was transferred from one unknown wallet to another on Nov. 28, 2022.

Tx cost: $2.51

1 – 127,351 BTC ($2,062,504,721) was transferred from Binance to an unknown wallet, likely another new Binance address, on Nov. 28, 2022.

Tx cost: $0.42

For Be[In]Crypto’s latest Bitcoin (BTC) analysis, click here.


All the information contained on our website is published in good faith and for general information purposes only. Any action the reader takes upon the information found on our website is strictly at their own risk.

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Bybit announces second round of layoffs in 2022 to survive bear market



Bybit announces second round of layoffs in 2022 to survive bear market

Ben Zhou, the co-founder and CEO of Bybit, announced a reorganization plan amid a prolonged bear market, which involves a steep reduction in the workforce.

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Bybit announces second round of layoffs in 2022 to survive bear market

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Yes, the bear market weeds out the bad actor, but it also forces the existing players to rethink their business strategies to offset resultant losses. In this effort, crypto exchange Bybit announced mass layoffs for the second time in 2022.

Ben Zhou, the co-founder and CEO of Bybit, announced a reorganization plan amid a prolonged bear market, which involves a steep reduction in the workforce. The “planned downsizing” will affects employees across the board:

“We are all saddened by the fact this reorganization will impact many of our dear Bybuddies and some of our oldest friends.”

Independent reporter Colin Wu highlighted that the layoff ratio is 30%. On June 20, Bybit silently laid off employees, citing unsustainable growth, which was confirmed via leaked internal documents. Bybit’s employee headcount grew from a few hundred to over 2000 in 2 years.

1) Difficult decision made today, but tough times demand tough decisions. I have just announced plans to reduce our workforce as part of an ongoing re-organisation of the business as we move to refocus our efforts for the deepening bear market.

— Ben Zhou (@benbybit) December 4, 2022

While announcing the incoming downsizing, Zhou shared his intent to make the offboarding process as smooth as possible. Sufficing this need for restructuring, Zhou said:

“It’s important to ensure Bybit has the right structure and resources in place to navigate the market slowdown and is nimble enough to seize the many opportunities ahead.”

For affected Bybit employees, the revelation is a hard pill to swallow, but Wu reported that employees would receive three months of salary as compensation.

Related: Bybit releases reserve wallet addresses amid calls for transparency

On Nov. 24, Bybit launched a $100 million support fund to provide liquidity to institutional traders following the FTX collapse.

The fund was made available to eligible market makers and high-frequency trading institutions and distributed at a 0% interest rate.

The maximum amount distributed per applicant was $10 million under the condition that the funds would be used for spot and Tether (USDT) perpetual trading on Bybit.

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Elon Musk alleges SBF donated over $1B to Democrats: “Where did it go?”



Elon Musk alleges SBF donated over $1B to Democrats: “Where did it go?”

SBF made the “highest ROI trade of all time” by donating $40 million to the right people for getting away with stealing over $10 billion, said Will Manidis, the CEO of ScienceIO.

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Elon Musk alleges SBF donated over B to Democrats: "Where did it go?"

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The attempts of mainstream media to water down the frauds committed by FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) did not fare well in convincing the crypto community and entrepreneurs. Instead, the misinformation campaign collided with Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s drive to position Twitter as “the most accurate source of information.”

The world is yet to overcome the shock after witnessing the legal leniency awarded to SBF for misappropriating users’ funds and shady investment practices via trading firms Alameda Research and FTX. Will Manidis, the CEO of ScienceIO, a healthcare data platform, pointed out that SBF made the “highest ROI trade of all time” by donating $40 million to the right people for getting away with stealing over $10 billion.

That’s just the publicly disclosed number. His actual support of Dem elections is probably over $1B. The money went somewhere, so where did it go?

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 3, 2022

On the other hand, Musk alleged that SBF donated over $1 billion to Democratic candidates, which is way more than the publicly disclosed amount of $40 million. SBF previously admitted to making backdoor donations to the Democratic Party. Musk asked:

“His actual support of Dem elections is probably over $1B. The money went somewhere, so where did it go?”

The United States House Financial Services Committee chair Maxine Waters, a Democrat, and ranking member Patrick McHenry, a Republican, have requested SBF to appear in an investigative hearing scheduled for Dec. 13.

.@SBF_FTX, we appreciate that you’ve been candid in your discussions about what happened at #FTX. Your willingness to talk to the public will help the company’s customers, investors, and others. To that end, we would welcome your participation in our hearing on the 13th.

— Maxine Waters (@RepMaxineWaters) December 2, 2022

To this request, prominent entrepreneurs, including Polygon CEO Ryan Wyatt, informed Waters that “he’s (SBF) a criminal” after being shocked at the leniency shown by the people in power to the fugitive.

Related: FTX collapse drives curiosity around Sam Bankman-Fried, Google data shows

The crypto community openly criticizes paid narratives that try to show SBF in good light. The latest backlash is related to SBF’s interviews in New York Times DealBook Summit and Good Morning America interviews.

Speaking to the news outlets during the ‘apology tour,’ SBF portrayed himself as a victim and got applauded at the end. “Watching SBF’s interview is kind of like watching Casey Anthony’s documentary. They’re so mechanical, they’re so inauthentic in their delivery. If you feel any emotion, at all, it slows people down. The way it is expressed is a separate subjective matter,” said Twitter user and developer Naom.

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