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Bitcoin price broke out this week, but has the trend changed?

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Bitcoin price broke out this week, but has the trend changed?

Welcome readers, and thanks for subscribing! The Altcoin Roundup newsletter is now authored by Cointelegraph’s resident newsletter writer Big Smokey. In the next few weeks, this newsletter will be renamed Crypto Market Musings, a weekly newsletter that provides ahead-of-the-curve analysis and tracks emerging trends in the crypto market. 

The publication date of the newsletter will remain the same, and the content will still place a heavy emphasis on the technical and fundamental analysis of cryptocurrencies from a more macro perspective in order to identify key shifts in investor sentiment and market structure. We hope you enjoy it!

Time to go long?

This week, Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has perked up, with a surge to $21,000 on Oct. 26. This led a handful of traders to proclaim that the bottom might be in or that BTC is entering the next phase of some technical structure like Wyckoff, a range break or some sort of support resistance flip.

Prior to getting all bullish and opening 10x longs, let’s dial back to a previous analysis to see if anything in Bitcoin’s market structure has changed and whether the recent spat of bullish momentum is indicative of a wider trend change.

When the last update was published on Sept. 30, Bitcoin was around $19,600, which is still within the bounds of the last 136 days of price action. At the time, I had identified bullish divergences on the weekly relative strength index (RSI) and moving average confluence divergence (MACD). There were also a handful of potential “bottoming” signals coming from multiple on-chain indicators, which were at multi-year lows.

Let’s take a look at how things are looking now.

The Bollinger Bands are tight

The Bollinger Bands on the daily time frame remains constricted, and this week’s surge to $21,000 was the expansion or spike in volatility that most traders have been expecting. As is par for the course, after breaking out from the upper arm, the price has retraced to test the mid-line/mid-band (20MA) as support.

Despite the strength of the move, the price remains capped below the 200-MA (black line), and it is unclear at this moment if the 20-MA will now serve as support for Bitcoin’s price.

BTC/USD daily chart with Bollinger Bands. Source: TradingView

After bouncing off a near-all-time low at 25.7, the weekly RSI continues to trend upward and the bullish divergence identified in the previous analysis remains in play. A similar trend is also being held by BTC’s weekly MACD.

In the same chart, we can see that the most recent weekly candle is en route to creating a weekly higher high. If the candle closes above the range high of the previous five weeks and the price sees continuation over the coming weeks with a daily or weekly close above $22,800, this could be the makings of a trend reversal.

BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView

On the daily timeframe, BTC’s Guppy multiple moving averages (GMMA or Super Guppy) indicator is eyebrow-raising. There is compression of the short-term moving averages, and they are converging with the long-term moving averages, which typically indicates an impending directional move or, in some instances, a macro trend reversal in the making.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

For the past few weeks, Bitcoin’s “record-low volatility” has been the talk of the town and when using the Bollinger Bands, the GMMA and BVOL, the tightening price range does hint at expansion, but to what direction remains a mystery.

Bitcoin has been trading in the $18,600–$24,500 range for 36 days and from the perspective of technical analysis, the price remains near the middle of that range. The move to $21,000 did not set a significant daily higher high nor escape from the current range, which essentially is a sideways chop.

The price is holding above the 20-day moving average for now, but we have yet to see the 20-MA cross above the 50-MA, and the majority of the Oct. 26 rally has retraced back to the low $20,000 level.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

A more convincing development would involve Bitcoin breaking out of the current range block to test the 200-MA at $24,800 and eventually making some attempt to flip the moving average to support.

A further extension to the $29,000–$35,000 range would inspire confidence from bulls looking for a clearer sign of a trend reversal. Until that happens, the current price action is simply more consolidation that is pinned by resistance extending all the way to $24,800.

Related: Why is the crypto market up today?

Bitcoin on-chain data says to accumulate

Like BTC’s spot price, the MVRV Z-Score has also bounced around in the -0.194 to -0.023 zone for the past three months. The on-chain metric reflects a ratio of BTC’s market capitalization against its realized capitalization (the amount people paid for BTC compared to its value today).

Bitcoin 3-month MVRV Z-Score. Source: Glassnode

In short, if Bitcoin’s market value is measurably higher than its realized value, the metric enters the red area, indicating a possible market top. When the metric enters the green zone, it signals that Bitcoin’s current value is below its realized price and that the market could be nearing a bottom.

Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score. Source: Glassnode

According to the MVRV Z-Score chart, when compared against Bitcoin’s price, the current -0.06 MVRV Z-Score is in the same range as previous multiyear lows and cycle bottoms.

Reserve Risk

Bitcoin’s Reserve Risk metric displays how “confident” investors are contrasted against the market price of BTC.

When investor confidence is high, but BTC’s price is low, the risk-to-reward or Bitcoin attractiveness versus the risk of buying and holding BTC enters the green area.

During times when investor confidence is low, but the price is high, Reserve Risk moves into the red area. Historical data suggests that building a Bitcoin position when Reserve Risk enters the green zone has been a good time to establish a position.

Bitcoin 6-month Reserve Risk. Source: Glassnode

Currently, we can see that over the past six months, the metric has been carving out what investors might describe as a bottom. At the time of writing, reserve risk is rising toward 0.0009, and typically, crossing the 0.001 threshold into the green zone has marked the start of a recovery.

Bitcoin Reserve Risk. Source: Glassnode

Looking forward

Multiple data points appear to suggest that Bitcoin’s price is undervalued and still in the process of carving out a bottom, but none confirms that the actual market bottom is in.

This week, and in previous months, multiple Bitcoin mining businesses have publicly announced the need to restructure debt, the possibility of missed debt payments, and some have even hinted at potential bankruptcy.

Most publicly listed miners have been selling the majority of their mined BTC since June, and the recent headlines concerning Compute North and Core Scientific hint that Bitcoin’s price is still at risk due to solvency issues among industrial miners.

Data from Glassnode shows the aggregate size of miner balances hovering around 78,400 BTC being “held by miners we have labelled (accounting for 96% of current hashrate).”

According to Glassnode, in the event of “income stress,” it is possible that miners will be forced to liquidate tranches of these reserves in the open market, and the knock-on effect on Bitcoin’s price could be the next catalyst of a sell-off to new yearly lows.

This newsletter was written by Big Smokey, the author of The Humble Pontificator Substack and resident newsletter author at Cointelegraph. Each Friday, Big Smokey will write market insights, trending how-tos, analyses and early-bird research on potential emerging trends within the crypto market.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Whale Watching: The Top 5 Crypto Transactions of the Week

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Whale Watching: The Top 5 Crypto Transactions of the Week

Bitcoin takes the throne for this week’s 127,351 BTC ($2,062,504,721) whale transfer out of Binance into an unknown wallet on Nov. 28, 2022, while an Ethereum whale transferred about 231,782 ETH ($274 million) on Nov. 28, 2022.

Binance reportedly paid $0.42 in transaction fees to move the large volume of Bitcoin in a bid as part of an audit process with the goal of greater transparency following the collapse of FTX. It assured users of the exchange that all their funds were safe.

Three Major Whale Transactions Done by Binance, Admits CZ

Additionally, the crypto exchange made at least two other whale transactions of around 200,000,000 BUSD, its native stablecoin, on Nov. 30, 2022. Binance was responsible for 81% of the roughly $3.2 billion of all whale transfers in the past week, with these two similar transfers tied for the fifth position.

Binance CEO Changpeng ‘CZ’ Zhao took to Twitter to allay fears of malpractice at the exchange, stating that a third-party auditor requires Binance to transfer a certain amount of crypto to itself to prove that the company owns the wallet. The remainder goes to another address, called a “Change Address.”

This is part of the Proof-of-Reserve Audit. The auditor require us to send a specific amount to ourselves to show we control the wallet. And the rest goes to a Change Address, which is a new address. In this case, the Input tx is big, and so is the Change. Ignore FUD! https://t.co/36wUPphIZk pic.twitter.com/2NkH5L5J9j

— CZ 🔶 Binance (@cz_binance) November 28, 2022

Other cryptos coming in close behind Binance’s Bitcoin transfer is the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, Ethereum, with almost $560 million transferred in two transactions of 231,736 ETH ($272 million) and 231,782 ETH ($274 million). Validators were later rewarded with $1.32 and $2.51 in transaction fees.

In both cases, the source and destination addresses were unknown. Crypto Twitter has speculated that the first transaction could have involved Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin. Earlier this year, he reportedly dumped 3,000 ETH to DeFi protocol Uniswap V3 shortly after news broke of the failure of FTX.

Fueling the speculation was the fact that Buterin had moved 30,000 ETH out of his self-custodial wallet in May 2022, prompting speculation that Ethereum would dump later. However, it turned out that the transferred funds were set aside for charitable donations.

Whale Transaction Unlocks XRP From Escrow

Rounding up the top five is the transfer of 500,000,000 XRP ($204 million) from an escrow wallet to an unknown address on Dec. 1, 2022. The escrow is essentially a smart contract on the XRP Ledger, written to dispense locked tokens once certain external conditions are met.

In 2018, Ripple launched an initiative to release 1,000,000,000 XRP at the start of each month through an escrow to create a predictable supply of its native coin. 

Accordingly, the transfer of 500,000,000 XRP was followed by transfers of 400 million and 100 million coins to unlock 1,000,000,000 XRP for Dec. 2022. In the past, Ripple has kept 800,000,000 coins, choosing to lock up the remaining 200,000,000 XRP for a new release.

Summary of the Top 5 Whale Transactions

The top five transactions for the week were:

5. 200,000,000 BUSD ($200,080,000) was transferred from Binance to an unknown wallet on Nov. 30, 2022, followed by a transfer of the same amount of BUSD from an unknown wallet to Binance.

Tx costs: $3.31 and $1.27

4 – 500,000,000 XRP ($204,402,898) was unlocked from escrow at an unknown wallet on Dec. 1, 2022.

Tx cost: Not available

3 – 231,736 ETH ($271,829,771) was transferred from an unknown wallet to another unknown wallet on Nov. 28, 2022.

Tx cost: $1.32 

2 – 231,782 ETH ($274,046,462) was transferred from one unknown wallet to another on Nov. 28, 2022.

Tx cost: $2.51

1 – 127,351 BTC ($2,062,504,721) was transferred from Binance to an unknown wallet, likely another new Binance address, on Nov. 28, 2022.

Tx cost: $0.42

For Be[In]Crypto’s latest Bitcoin (BTC) analysis, click here.

Disclaimer

All the information contained on our website is published in good faith and for general information purposes only. Any action the reader takes upon the information found on our website is strictly at their own risk.

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Bybit announces second round of layoffs in 2022 to survive bear market

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Bybit announces second round of layoffs in 2022 to survive bear market

Ben Zhou, the co-founder and CEO of Bybit, announced a reorganization plan amid a prolonged bear market, which involves a steep reduction in the workforce.

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Bybit announces second round of layoffs in 2022 to survive bear market

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Yes, the bear market weeds out the bad actor, but it also forces the existing players to rethink their business strategies to offset resultant losses. In this effort, crypto exchange Bybit announced mass layoffs for the second time in 2022.

Ben Zhou, the co-founder and CEO of Bybit, announced a reorganization plan amid a prolonged bear market, which involves a steep reduction in the workforce. The “planned downsizing” will affects employees across the board:

“We are all saddened by the fact this reorganization will impact many of our dear Bybuddies and some of our oldest friends.”

Independent reporter Colin Wu highlighted that the layoff ratio is 30%. On June 20, Bybit silently laid off employees, citing unsustainable growth, which was confirmed via leaked internal documents. Bybit’s employee headcount grew from a few hundred to over 2000 in 2 years.

1) Difficult decision made today, but tough times demand tough decisions. I have just announced plans to reduce our workforce as part of an ongoing re-organisation of the business as we move to refocus our efforts for the deepening bear market.

— Ben Zhou (@benbybit) December 4, 2022

While announcing the incoming downsizing, Zhou shared his intent to make the offboarding process as smooth as possible. Sufficing this need for restructuring, Zhou said:

“It’s important to ensure Bybit has the right structure and resources in place to navigate the market slowdown and is nimble enough to seize the many opportunities ahead.”

For affected Bybit employees, the revelation is a hard pill to swallow, but Wu reported that employees would receive three months of salary as compensation.

Related: Bybit releases reserve wallet addresses amid calls for transparency

On Nov. 24, Bybit launched a $100 million support fund to provide liquidity to institutional traders following the FTX collapse.

The fund was made available to eligible market makers and high-frequency trading institutions and distributed at a 0% interest rate.

The maximum amount distributed per applicant was $10 million under the condition that the funds would be used for spot and Tether (USDT) perpetual trading on Bybit.

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Elon Musk alleges SBF donated over $1B to Democrats: “Where did it go?”

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Elon Musk alleges SBF donated over $1B to Democrats: “Where did it go?”

SBF made the “highest ROI trade of all time” by donating $40 million to the right people for getting away with stealing over $10 billion, said Will Manidis, the CEO of ScienceIO.

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Elon Musk alleges SBF donated over B to Democrats: "Where did it go?"

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The attempts of mainstream media to water down the frauds committed by FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) did not fare well in convincing the crypto community and entrepreneurs. Instead, the misinformation campaign collided with Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s drive to position Twitter as “the most accurate source of information.”

The world is yet to overcome the shock after witnessing the legal leniency awarded to SBF for misappropriating users’ funds and shady investment practices via trading firms Alameda Research and FTX. Will Manidis, the CEO of ScienceIO, a healthcare data platform, pointed out that SBF made the “highest ROI trade of all time” by donating $40 million to the right people for getting away with stealing over $10 billion.

That’s just the publicly disclosed number. His actual support of Dem elections is probably over $1B. The money went somewhere, so where did it go?

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 3, 2022

On the other hand, Musk alleged that SBF donated over $1 billion to Democratic candidates, which is way more than the publicly disclosed amount of $40 million. SBF previously admitted to making backdoor donations to the Democratic Party. Musk asked:

“His actual support of Dem elections is probably over $1B. The money went somewhere, so where did it go?”

The United States House Financial Services Committee chair Maxine Waters, a Democrat, and ranking member Patrick McHenry, a Republican, have requested SBF to appear in an investigative hearing scheduled for Dec. 13.

.@SBF_FTX, we appreciate that you’ve been candid in your discussions about what happened at #FTX. Your willingness to talk to the public will help the company’s customers, investors, and others. To that end, we would welcome your participation in our hearing on the 13th.

— Maxine Waters (@RepMaxineWaters) December 2, 2022

To this request, prominent entrepreneurs, including Polygon CEO Ryan Wyatt, informed Waters that “he’s (SBF) a criminal” after being shocked at the leniency shown by the people in power to the fugitive.

Related: FTX collapse drives curiosity around Sam Bankman-Fried, Google data shows

The crypto community openly criticizes paid narratives that try to show SBF in good light. The latest backlash is related to SBF’s interviews in New York Times DealBook Summit and Good Morning America interviews.

Speaking to the news outlets during the ‘apology tour,’ SBF portrayed himself as a victim and got applauded at the end. “Watching SBF’s interview is kind of like watching Casey Anthony’s documentary. They’re so mechanical, they’re so inauthentic in their delivery. If you feel any emotion, at all, it slows people down. The way it is expressed is a separate subjective matter,” said Twitter user and developer Naom.

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