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Bitmex’s Arthur Hayes: I am a Buyer of Bitcoin at $20k and Ethereum at $1,300

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Bitmex’s Arthur Hayes: I am a Buyer of Bitcoin at $20k and Ethereum at $1,300

Quick take:

  • Bitmex Founder Arthur Hayes says that he is a buyer of Bitcoin at $20k and Ethereum at $1,300
  • He cites that these values of Bitcoin and Ethereum make sense as they were previous all-time highs
  • Mr. Hayes also cautions that the crypto-meltdown is not over, and the LUNA
  • He warns that the Fed rate increments ‘will continue the destruction of long-duration risky assets’
  • Arthur Hayes also admits that he did not expect Bitcoin to retest $30k as fast as it did

The Founder and Former CEO of Bitmex, Arthur Hayes, has once again offered his valuable insights into the probable future of digital assets, including Bitcoin and Ethereum.

In a recent blog post, Mr. Hayes stated that he will be a buyer of Bitcoin and $20k and Ethereum at $1,300 as these values correspond to previous all-time highs set in the 2017 to 2018 bull market.

This Bitcoin and Crypto Meltdown ‘Ain’t Over’

His analysis is based upon the ongoing crypto-meltdown brought about by UST depegging and the Luna Foundation possibly selling its entire Bitcoin holdings to attempt to save the stablecoin.

According to Mr. Hayes, the market turmoil is not over, for the US Fed will continue on its mission to increase interest rates to fight inflation. Consequently, assets deemed as risky, such as Bitcoin, will continue to suffer in the markets. He said:

During a proper meltdown, the market seeks out those indiscriminate sellers and forces their hands. This week’s plunge was accentuated by the forced selling of all Luna Foundation Bitcoin in order to defend the UST:USD peg.

US CPI for April came in at 8.3% YoY, which is lower than the previous reading of 8.5% YoY. 8.3% is still too hot to handle, and the Fed in firefighter mode can’t abandon their quixotic quest against inflation. A June 50bps hike is the expectation, and this will continue the destruction of long-duration risky assets.

Hayes Did Not Expect Bitcoin to Drop to $30k So Quickly

Furthermore, Arthur Hayes admitted that his earlier forecast of Bitcoin at $30k and Ethereum at $2,500 happened faster than he expected. But the meltdown proved that the crypto markets could not handle the rising interest rates by the US Fed. He explained:

I dutifully sold my Bitcoin $30,000 and Ether $2,500 June puts…

I did not expect the market to trade through these levels so quickly. This meltdown happened less than one week after the Fed raised rates to the expected 50bps.

Let me repeat the pertinent fact that the market EXPECTED a 50bps hike, and still puked afterwards.

This market cannot handle rising nominal rates. It astounds me that anyone can believe long duration risk assets at all-time-high price multiples will not succumb to rising nominal rates.

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Ethereum

CZ Declines Suggestion to Take Over from Do Kwon as Head of Terra (LUNA) and Bail out UST in Recent Reddit AMA

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CZ Declines Suggestion to Take Over from Do Kwon as Head of Terra (LUNA) and Bail out UST in Recent Reddit AMA

Summary:

  • In a recent AMA, Binance CEO was asked whether he would consider taking over from Do Kwon at LUNA and bailing out UST.
  • CZ responded by stating he was humbled by the request, but such a scenario was unlikely given that he is ‘pretty busy already.’
  • CZ also clarified that the exact details of a possible LUNA airdrop after the Terra hardfork would be worked out after an official consensus.

Yesterday, May 21st, CZ held an AMA (Ask Me Anything) session on the r/Cryptocurrency subreddit page.

Reddit AMA starting soon. Ask your questions there.https://t.co/gIcMstB6qf pic.twitter.com/wFzAvK01Pp

— CZ 🔶 Binance (@cz_binance) May 21, 2022

For one hour, the CEO of Binance answered various questions spanning different topics in the crypto-verse, such as crypto adoption, the future of the Binance Smart Chain, and the recent events surrounding Terra (LUNA) and TerraUSD (UST).

CZ Declines Offer to Take Over from Do Kwon and Bailout UST

With respect to LUNA and UST, one community member known as u/emptystats asked CZ whether he would consider bailing out UST and taking over from Do Kwon as the head of Terra (LUNA).

According to u/emptystats, all CZ had to do was invest $3 to 6 billion to partially collateralize the remaining 10 billion UST. In return, Binance would get a significant allocation of the new LUNA tokens after the planned hardfork. Furthermore, there would be an additional mechanism whereby to redeem UST, users would have to buy and unlock BNB for three to seven years.

u/emptystats concluded that such an act from CZ would make him the most beloved man in the crypto space, and he ‘would likely make money too with BNB forced to be bought and locked.’

In his response, CZ stated that he was humbled by the request, but such a scenario was unlikely given how busy he is already. He said:

I am humbled by such a request. Thanks for the trust in me. But short answer is: unlikely.

I am pretty busy already, and algo stable coins is not my speciality. We should each do what we do best. I hope the community eventually settle on a good solution, and we will be here to support it.

Exact Details of the Pending LUNA Airdrop Will Be Worked Out

Concerning the possible hardfork of Terra into Terra Classic (LUNC) and a new Terra (LUNA) chain, CZ was asked whether Binance will distribute the new tokens according to individual user balances of the old tokens during the snapshot.

In his answer, CZ clarified that Binance ‘works hard to ensure users that hold coins/tokens on our exchange can receive airdrops intended for holders.’ He also added that ‘the exact details will be worked out after there is an official consensus on what the Terra team plans to do.’

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LUNA, UST Investors Can’t Catch a Break as Scammers Are Now Posting Fake Terra Community Proposals

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LUNA, UST Investors Can’t Catch a Break as Scammers Are Now Posting Fake Terra Community Proposals

Summary:

  • Malicious actors have been purchasing LUNA and posting fake proposals on Terra Station with phishing sites.
  • Terra has also witnessed an increment in spam proposals as the ‘cheapness’ of LUNA makes it economically easier.
  • The team at Terra has now added an allowlist for new proposals in the ecosystem.
  • The Terra community continues to vote on proposal 1623 to fork the chain with 66.3% for the idea.

LUNA and UST investors cannot seem to catch a break as malicious actors have been capitalizing on the recent events surrounding both digital assets to post fake proposals on Terra Station, with additional links to phishing sites.

Furthermore, the fake proposals claim to lead users to a preview of Terra 2.0 and Dapps launched by the team at Terra, while in reality, they are out to steal from the community.

2/ In addition, we have also seen a rapid increase in spam proposals as the discount on $LUNA made it economically cheap to post anything one desired. pic.twitter.com/dd524u8ndk

— Terra 🌍 Powered by LUNA 🌕 (@terra_money) May 20, 2022

The Cheap Value of LUNA Makes it Easier to Purchase Enough Coins to Submit Fake Proposals.

According to the team at Terra, the significant low price of Terra (LUNA) has made it possible for scammers to purchase vast amounts of the digital asset to carry out their phishing attacks.

New Terra Proposals To be Added to an Allowlist

Consequently, the team at Terra will now add proposals to an allowlist as they try to find a more sustainable solution to the situation. The Terra team also clarified that their end goal is not to censor viable proposals but to protect users from scams. They said:

Our goal is not to censor viable proposals, but rather to protect users from scams & ensure an excellent user experience. For those who would like to view all proposals, including potential scams/spam, simply click the “Show all” button on the “Governance” page on Station.

IMPORTANT. Clicking on the “Show all” button may reveal potential scam proposals. Please beware of these types of posts to keep your funds safe.

Votes for Terra Proposal 1623 Decreases to 66.31%

To note is that the Terra Community is currently voting on proposal 1623, which is geared towards forking the chain into Terra Classic (LUNC) and a new chain of Terra (LUNA).

Mid-last week, 90% of the Terra community were for the proposal, with Do Kwon adding three quick amendments by Friday, May 20th. However, a glance at the ongoing voting on Terra Station reveals that only 66.31% of the votes cast are now for the modified proposal.

LUNA, UST Investors Can't Catch a Break as Scammers Are Now Posting Fake Terra Community Proposals 16
Progress of Terra Proposal 1623 with three days left to vote. Source, station.terra.money/proposal/1623

At the time of writing, a total of 252.745 million votes have been cast, with 167.606 million for proposal 1623. The vote has already passed the minimum 50% threshold needed to sail through. Therefore, it can be concluded that the Terra Community will go along with the proposal to fork the chain despite there being three more days of voting left.

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Crypto is Worth Nothing and Based on Nothing, Says ECB President Lagarde

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Crypto is Worth Nothing and Based on Nothing, Says ECB President Lagarde

Quick take:

  • European Central Bank President, Christine Lagarde, has said cryptocurrencies are worth nothing and based on nothing.
  • She added that cryptocurrencies do not have an underlying asset to act as an anchor of safety.
  • ECB President Lagarde said that a digital Euro would be a better store of value than cryptocurrencies.
  • The EU Commission on a digital euro (CBDC) is still accepting consultations from experts on the topic.

Christine Lagarde, the European Central Bank President, has said that cryptocurrencies are based on nothing and should be regulated to protect people from the possibility of speculating over them with their life savings.

Ms. Lagarde made the comments during a Dutch television discussion where she also added that digital assets are not backed by anything as an anchor. Her exact statements on cryptocurrencies were as follows:

[I’m concerned about people] who have no understanding of the risks, who will lose it all and who will be terribly disappointed, which is why I believe that that should be regulated.

My very humble assessment is that it is worth nothing, it is based on nothing, there is no underlying asset to act as an anchor of safety.

A Digital Euro Would be a Safer Bet

Ms. Lagarde also admitted that she does not hold any cryptocurrencies because she wants to practice what she preaches. She, however, was optimistic about the prospects of a Digital Euro being a safer alternative. She said:

The day when we have the central bank digital currency out, any digital euro, I will guarantee — so the central bank will behind it and I think it’s vastly different than many of those things.

EU Commission on a Digital Euro Is Still Accepting Comments from Experts on the Topic

Concerning the feasibility of a Digital Euro, the EU Commission on a Central Bank Digital Currency within the region is still accepting comments from industry experts on the topic.

Patrick Hansen highlighted this fact through the following Tweet. Mr. Hansen is a crypto venture advisor at Presight Capital and has on numerous occasions provided valuable insights on the status of digital asset regulation in Europe.

If you don’t share Christine Lagarde’s opinion that the digital euro is the way forward, you still have three weeks to raise your concerns in the EU commission CBDC consultation – deadline June 14. https://t.co/p5eMF5ySo5

— Patrick Hansen (@paddi_hansen) May 22, 2022

The deadline to submit statements on the topic of a Digital Euro is June 14th, and the following individuals and entities are encouraged to submit their opinion on the matter.

Payment industry specialists, payment service providers (including credit institutions, payment and e-money institutions), payment infrastructure providers, developers of payment solutions, merchants, merchant associations, consumer associations, retail payments regulators, and supervisors, anti-money laundering (AML) supervisors, Financial Intelligence Units, and other relevant authorities and experts.

Concerning the object of the consultation for a digital euro, the EU Commission tasked with the process explains that it is meant to ‘ to collect further information on expected impacts on key industries (financial intermediation, payment services, merchants), users (consumer associations, retailers’ associations), chambers of commerce and other stakeholders in international trade.’

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