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China mining shock may not be over yet, experts suggest

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China mining shock may not be over yet, experts suggest

Earlier this year, the Chinese government took the momentous step to ban any crypto mining operations based within its borders, causing a massive exodus of hashing power — 168 exa hashes per second (EH/s) to nearly 86 EH/s as of June 23, representing a drop of nearly 40% — from China to surrounding countries. 

As a quick refresher, the hash rate refers to the total computational power needed to acquire a single Bitcoin (BTC). In other words, one can say that while central banks issue fiat currencies, miners are provided with new Bitcoin for solving pieces of complex mathematical code referred to as blocks.

Prior to the ban, China laid claim to 65% of the world’s total Bitcoin hashing power. Since the aforementioned move, however, a massive number of mining pool operators have packed up their suitcases and left for greener pastures. In one example, Canadian mining firm Bitfarms noted that its revenue had increased by nearly 30% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2021, with the company mining 26% more BTC than it had done so in comparison to the previous quarter.

What’s happening exactly?

After a couple of months of turmoil, BTC’s hash rate levels now seem to have stabilized once again, with numbers seemingly returning to where they once were a few months ago. In this regard, data made available by crypto analytics firm CryptoQuant shows that the metric seems to have once again topped the 150 Exahashes mark at 152 EH/s, tripling the levels it had reached on June 28 (52 EH/s).

It is also worth mentioning that on May 13, Bitcoin’s average hash rate scaled up to an all-time high of 197.6 EH/s, only for the figure to slump by more than 65% as mining rigs across China were faced with the “great migration.” That said, with the metric now approaching early June levels, it is estimated that new all-time high values could be registered in the next couple of months.

Providing his thoughts on the matter, Kevin Zhang, vice president of business development at crypto mining firm Foundry, told Cointelegraph that despite the perceived recovery, things are still far from returning “back to normal,” adding that the 152 EH/s reading was based on a short 24-hour hash rate estimate window, where luck was high across the entire network and blocks were solved faster than expected, adding:

“Right now, the 24 hour moving average for hash rate is once again hovering around ~130EH/s, which is in line with its three- and seven-day moving averages. BTCs hash rate is certainly recovering and returning back to normal. However, a majority — if not all — of the large-scale miners in China that were displaced from the crackdowns have either shipped their mining fleets abroad or are warehousing them until they can find open hosting capacity.”

He further highlighted that, as things stand, the entire world is still constrained on readily available infrastructure that can support all of the displaced mining units to help maintain Bitcoin’s hash difficulty.

“It certainly is exciting to see hash rate come online and a lot of it is coming from new orders finally being delivered. By the end of the year, we very well could be setting new all-time-highs for network difficulty and hash rate”, Zhang closed out by saying.

Effects of China’s ban will linger

Philip Salter, chief technical officer for Bitcoin mining firm Genesis Digital Assets, told Cointelegraph that many Chinese miners have continued to hold out, hoping for an improvement of the situation inside China or possibly wait for an attractive opportunity to relocate overseas. 

However, he added that most sizable mining sites have been bought up over the course of 2021, and there is simply no short-term capacity for deploying 5-8 gigawatts of mining hardware, basically implying that the situation hasn’t really reached any sort of tangible resolution just yet. Salter added:

“So, the situation isn’t over yet and I think we’ll be seeing the effects of China’s mining exodus for at least another year. Probably most mining hardware will resurface sooner or later and the hash rate will return. But, we will need to wait and see if it will happen slowly over time, or if panic fueled hardware sales will dump the market prices.”

Similarly, founder and CEO of mining firm BitRiver Igor Rugnets told Cointelegraph that while a rebound in BTCs hash rate figures was bound to occur — as previously ordered machines continue to be delivered to their international buyers — he still believes that most machines that went offline in China due to the crackdown are still yet to find a home abroad.

On a technical note, Rugnets pointed out that in the few weeks following the crackdown Bitcoin’s total hash rate lost over 60 exahashes of computing power. And given that most of those mining machines were not the latest-generation machines, he believes that a total of 750,000 machines would have most likely gone offline as a result of the crackdown.

Lastly, in Rugnets’ view, Bitcoin’s hash rate will continue to rise as previously ordered machines continue to be shipped by manufacturers. Furthermore, he pointed out that every unit of these new mining machines packs in about eight-times more hash rate compared with older generation machines that dominated the Chinese market previously. “Bitcoin’s hash rate may even set a new all-time-high before year-end,” he said.

North American mining companies step up

As per data released by the Cambridge Electricity Index, United States-based mining pools have started sweeping up large portions of BTC’s hash rate even before June, a time when China’s local ban hadn’t even come into full effect. In this regard, Riot, a U.S.-based mining firm, reported $31.5 million in mining-related revenues for the three-month period — up over 1,500% from its Q2 2020 revenue of $1.9 million. 

The firm also reported a 38% increase in the total number of Bitcoin it was able to mine compared with the previous quarter, generating 675 BTC compared with 491 BTC in Q1. In fact, Riot recently initiated a $650-million 400 megawatt expansion project with Whinstone US, with a total of four additional power production facilities currently under construction.

Other North American mining firms that have recorded staggering year-to-date gains include Marathon (268%), Bitfarms (210%), Riot (126%) and Hut8 (180%). Not only that, data suggests that the aforementioned companies were able to generate an average of 58% more Bitcoin during the month of July than in June.

Commenting on his company’s recent performance, Marathon Digital Holdings CEO Fred Thiel revealed that during the second quarter of the year, the firm’s revenue rose by a sizable 220% (to nearly $30 million) in comparison with the previous quarter. Additionally, the company’s hash rate also increased by a whopping 196% over the aforementioned time window.

Thus, it will be interesting to see how Bitcoin’s hash rate recovery proceeds from here on out, especially with an increasing number of firms across the globe stepping up their production capacities.

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BTC, ETH, XRP, ZEN, UNI, OMG, AXS — Technical Analysis Sept 28

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BTC, ETH, XRP, ZEN, UNI, OMG, AXS — Technical Analysis Sept 28

Bitcoin (BTC) was rejected by the $44,000 horizontal resistance area.

Ethereum (ETH) is following a descending resistance line and potentially trading inside a descending wedge.

XRP (XRP) is following a descending support line.

Horizen (ZEN) has broken down from an ascending support line.

Uniswap (UNI) has broken out from a descending wedge.

OMG Network (OMG) is following an ascending support line.

Axie Infinity (AXS) has broken out from a descending resistance line.

BTC

On Sept 27, BTC was rejected by the $44,000 resistance area and created a long upper wick (red icon). This is a bearish sign since the area had previously been acting as support, and the rejection now validates it as resistance.

Technical indicators in the daily time frame are bearish. Both the RSI and MACD are decreasing. The former is negative while the latter has just fallen below 50.

The next closest support area is found at $38,000.

ETH

ETH has been decreasing underneath a descending resistance line since Sept 3. Most recently, it was rejected by the line on Sept 16.

Due to the long lower wicks, the support line cannot be accurately determined. However, it’s possible that ETH is trading inside a descending wedge.

Despite the wedge normally being considered a bullish pattern, technical indicators are neutral. The RSI is right at the 50-line and the MACD is below 0, although it is increasing.

Therefore, the direction of the trend cannot be accurately determined at the current time.

XRP

XRP has been following a descending support line since Aug 17. So far, it has been validated multiple times, most recently on Sept 21. The final touch of the support line (green icon) also coincided with the 0.618 Fib retracement support level at $0.85.

Despite the fact that XRP is trading above a confluence of support levels, technical indicators are not bullish. The RSI is at the 50-line and the MACD is negative, even though it is moving upwards.

The closest support and resistance levels are found at $0.76 and $1.07 respectively.

ZEN

ZEN has been decreasing since Sept 15, after creating a double top pattern and a long upper wick. The pattern was also combined with a bearish divergence in the RSI.

Shortly after, it broke down from an ascending support line. The breakdown is supported by the MACD and RSI, which are both decreasing.

The closest support area is found at $53.

UNI

UNI has been decreasing since Sept 2. After the Sept 7 drop, it created a descending wedge, which led to a low of $17.73 on Sept 26.

However, UNI rebounded and broke out from the wedge. The breakout is supported by the increasing MACD and RSI.

The closest resistance area is found at $26.15, created by the 0.618 Fib retracement resistance levels.

If UNI is successful in moving above it, it may move toward new highs.

OMG

OMG has been following an ascending support line since July 20. However, since Sept 6, it has failed to break out above the $10.60 area, which is the 0.618 Fib retracement resistance level.

Despite the rejection, technical indicators are bullish. The RSI has generated a hidden bullish divergence and the MACD is positive.

Therefore, an eventual breakout would be likely. This could take OMG toward the $15.33 all-time high price.

AXS

AXS has been increasing since Sept 21 when it bounced at the $48.28 support area. The next day, it created a bullish engulfing candlestick and broke out from a descending resistance line.

Following this, it reclaimed the $63 horizontal area and validated it as support.

Both the MACD and RSI are increasing, supporting the continuation of the upward movement.

The next resistance area is found at the all-time highs of $94.50.

For BeInCrypto’s latest Bitcoin (BTC) analysis, click here.

Disclaimer

All the information contained on our website is published in good faith and for general information purposes only. Any action the reader takes upon the information found on our website is strictly at their own risk.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Fails to Move Above $44,000 Resistance

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Bitcoin (BTC) Fails to Move Above $44,000 Resistance

Bitcoin (BTC) attempted to move upwards on Sept 27 but was rejected by the $44,000 resistance area.

While BTC is still trading inside the upper portion of a descending parallel channel, the price action is lacking bullish signals.

BTC gets rejected

On Sept 27, BTC made an attempt at moving above the $44,000 area but was promptly rejected (red icon). The area had acted as support in August and the beginning of September but turned to resistance after the breakdown on Sept 20. The rejection created an upper wick and a bearish candlestick. 

Besides trading below resistance, technical indicators for BTC have turned bearish as both the RSI and MACD are decreasing. The MACD has just crossed into negative territory while the RSI is below 50. 

If BTC were to continue moving downwards, the next closest support area would be found at $38,000.

Current channel

The six-hour chart shows a descending parallel channel, which usually contains corrective structures.

Currently, BTC is trading inside its upper portion. Furthermore, it’s trading just above the 0.5 Fib retracement support level.  

Despite being above a confluence of support levels, technical indicators are bearish/undecided. The MACD is negative and has lost its strength while the RSI has just fallen below 50.

The two-hour chart shows that BTC is following an ascending support line and has made three higher lows since Sept 21. While this can be seen as a bullish structure, the price action is not bullish. 

The previous resistance area at $43,000 that was expected to act as support did not. On the contrary, BTC fell right through it. Furthermore, both the MACD and RSI have turned bearish.

While there is very strong support at $41,500, created by the 0.786 Fib retracement support level and the ascending support line, the price action does not seem bullish.

Wave count

The most likely wave count still indicates that the decrease from Sept 7 to Sept 21 was part of an A-B-C corrective structure, in which waves A:C had an exact 1:1 ratio. This is also supported by the presence of the descending parallel channel.

However, the movement since the low does not seem impulsive, casting some doubt on the possibility of this being the correct count.

Alternative counts could see the movement as a flat A-B-C corrective structure (upper image), or in the more bearish case a 1/2-/1-2 wave structure (lower image). 

At the current time, the correct count cannot be determined.

For BeInCrypto’s previous Bitcoin (BTC) analysis, click here.

Disclaimer

All the information contained on our website is published in good faith and for general information purposes only. Any action the reader takes upon the information found on our website is strictly at their own risk.

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Europe becomes largest crypto economy with over $1T in transactions — Chainalysis

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Europe becomes largest crypto economy with over $1T in transactions — Chainalysis

DeFi has become a major catalyst for Europe’s crypto economy. Large institutions have also upped their share of transactions significantly.

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Europe becomes largest crypto economy with over T in transactions — Chainalysis

The region of central, northern and western Europe, or CNWE, has emerged as the world’s most active cryptocurrency block, receiving over $1 trillion worth of digital assets over the past year, according to new research from blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis. 

The report, which was released Tuesday, found that the CNWE region accounted for 25% of global crypto activity between July 2020 and June 2021. The region witnessed a sharp uptick in transaction volume across all crypto sub-categories, especially decentralized finance, or DeFi.

Chainalysis describes crypto transactions as anything involving trade, investments and business dealings.

Europe has also become a hotbed for institutional investing, with transactions values in this category growing to $46.3 billion in June 2021 compared with just $1.4 billion in July 2020. Perhaps surprisingly, the United Kingdom is the single largest crypto economy in the region at $170 billion worth of transactions. Nearly half, or 49%, of the value was sent via DeFi protocols.

“The U.K.’s growth is driven mostly by growing institutional investment, based on the large-sized transfers driving most of its transaction volume,” Chainalysis senior content marketing manager Henry Updegrave told Cointelegraph. 

A secular bull market for Bitcoin (BTC), the growth of competing smart contract platforms and the arrival of decentralized finance all contributed to crypto’s massive rally during the study period. It comes as no surprise that CNWE’s crypto market activity peaked in May 2021 during the height of the bull market, which was one month removed from Bitcoin hitting $64,000.

Chainalysis’ data corroborates a growing body of evidence showing that large institutional investors have become a driving force within crypto. Wealth managers, family offices and other institutional players have poured billions of dollars into Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) investment products offered by Grayscale, CoinShares, 21Shares and others.

Related: Crypto asset manager Cobo raises $40M to launch DeFi-as-a-service

Beyond the advanced economies of Europe, Chainalysis research has documented the growing uptake of crypto in emerging markets. The Chainalylsis 2021 Global Crypto Adoption Index named Vietnam, India and Pakistan as the leading countries for adoption based on on-chain value received, retail transactions and peer-to-peer exchange trade volume.

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