Summary:

• Su Zhu has admitted via Twitter that his Bitcoin supercycle thesis ‘was regrettably wrong.’
• Mr. Zhu’s Bitcoin supercycle thesis had forecasted that BTC could reach $2.5 million if it took a large portion of Gold’s market share.

The co-founder of Three Arrows Capital, Su Zhu, has admitted via Twitter that his Bitcoin supercycle price thesis was regrettably wrong. In the tweet that can be found below, Mr. Zhu went on to express optimism that the crypto industry will still ‘thrive and change the world every day.’

Supercycle price thesis was regrettably wrong, but crypto will still thrive and change the world every day

— Zhu Su 🔺 (@zhusu) May 27, 2022

Su Zhu’s Bitcoin Supercycle Thesis Explained

Su Zhu’s Bitcoin supercycle thesis dates back to a February 2021 interview on the UpOnly podcast where he suggested that BTC could hit $2.5 million if it were successful in capturing a significant portion of Gold’s market share. He explained his $2.5 million Bitcoin target as follows:

I mean, I think there’s an argument that gold itself is very undervalued. If it was the dominant store of value cause this thing was at like $1,700 years ago… and let’s say gold should have 5X’d if there wasn’t Bitcoin, then really we’re looking at a $50 trillion market cap.

So then you’re already halfway there to $100 trillion and that will get you to $2.5 million per BTC and I think that that is definitely possible.

Bitcoin Has Dropped by Almost 50% Since His Interview on UpOnly.

At the time of the interview back in February 2021, Bitcoin was trading at about $50,000 and would go on to post a new all-time high of $69k in November of the same year. However, the King of Crypto has since entered a bear market that has seen Bitcoin hit a local low of $26,700 earlier this month due to the crypto market panic caused by UST’s depegging.

This, in turn, translates to an almost 50% drawback of Bitocin since Su Zhu appeared on the UpOnly podcast and explained his Bitcoin supercycle thesis.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $28,400 as the US Federal Reserve starts the process of Quantitative Tightening beginning next week, June 1st. As a result, analysts and crypto traders remain bearish on the short-term future of Bitcoin as it could drop to $22k or even $20k.

Summary:

• Four top Coinbase officials have sold $1 billion worth of COIN shares since the company went public.
• The Coinbase executives include Co-founders Brian Armstrong and Fred Ehrsam, its President and Chief Operating Officer Emilie Choi, and Chief Product Officer Surojit Chatterjee.
• They sold their shares at prices ranging from $189 to $422.
• Such sales are sometimes expected, particularly for founders, after having ‘their stakes locked up for so long.’
• COIN is trading at $73 and looks to be entering a consolidation zone.

Four top Coinbase executives have netted close to $1.2 billion in proceeds by selling their COIN holdings from when the company went public in April 2021, till February of this year.

According to a report by the Wall Street Journal, the four Coinbase officials who sold their shares of COIN include ‘Co-founders Brian Armstrong and Fred Ehrsam, as well as President and Chief Operating Officer Emilie Choi and Chief Product Officer Surojit Chatterjee.’

Furthermore, they sold their Coinbase shares at values of COIN ranging from $189 to $422. A full breakdown of the $1.2 billion in COIN shares sold can be found below.

• Brain Amstrong and his living trust sold shares worth $292 million.
• Emilie Choi exercised options at a cost of $9.7 million and sold shares worth $226 million.
• Surojit Chatterjee exercised options at a cost of $9.7 million and sold shares worth $226 million.
• Fred Ehrsam sold almost $0.5 billion worth of COIN and bought back $75 million worth on behalf of a crypto investment firm he co-founded, Paradigm One LP.

It is ‘Expected’ for Founders to Sell After an IPO or Public Offering

The report by the Wall Street Journal goes on to point out that some analysts see the sale of stock by founders such as Coinbase’s as being expected, given that they have had their stakes locked up for so long.

This fact was further reiterated by a Coinbase spokesperson who said:

These Coinbase executives maintain large positions in the company, reflecting their commitment to our long-term opportunities.

COIN Has Lost 80% of its Value Since Listing

To note is that Coinbase (COIN) opened trading at roughly $381 in April last year. At the time of writing, COIN is trading at $73, signifying an 80% decrement in value since its public listing.

Furthermore, and from the daily COIN chart below, the value of the stock is in a clear downtrend, given that it is trading below the 50-day (white), 100-day (yellow), and 200-day (green) moving averages.

However, COIN’s daily MACD, MFI, and RSI hint at an oversold scenario that could assist in the stock moving towards the 50-day moving average and possibly retesting the $100 mark. But caution is advised going long on COIN given that the US Fed plans to initiate Quantitative Tightening beginning June 1st, which is next week.

Quick take:

• Tether (USDT) has launched on the Polygon (MATIC) network.
• Polygon’s DeFi ecosystem is set to benefit from Tether’s availability on the network.
• USDT issued on Tron continues to be higher than that issued on Ethereum.
• A total of $72.537 billion Tether is in circulation with the stablecoin remaining at the number three spot in terms of market capitalization.

The stablecoin of Tether (USDT) has launched on a new chain. The stablecoin will now be available on the Polygon (MATIC) network as announced by the team at the project through the following tweet.

Big news!📣

The largest stablecoin by market cap, @Tether_to, is now offering their $USDT stablecoin tokens #onPolygon.

Find out more 👇https://t.co/vgCkRIRpab

— Polygon – MATIC 💚 (@0xPolygon) May 27, 2022

Tether Aims to Boost Polygon’s DeFi Ecosystem

According to the official announcement of Tether’s launch on Polygon, the latter network’s DeFi ecosystem ‘will benefit greatly from Tether’s role in its development.’

Tether’s integration into Polygon means that it’s over 19,000 Dapps and 8,000 development teams can now access the liquidity provided by the stablecoin. Polygon’s over 142 million unique user addresses ‘will have a major stable digital currency to generate returns from while moving freely within and across the network.’

Tether’s CTO, Paolo Ardoino, further pointed out that the Polygon ecosystem had witnessed tremendous growth and Tether will continue to help it thrive. He said:

We’re excited to launch USDt on Polygon, offering its community access to the most liquid, stable, and trusted stablecoin in the digital token space.

The Polygon ecosystem has witnessed historical growth this year and we believe Tether will be essential in helping it continue to thrive.

USDT on Tron Still Exceeds that on Ethereum as Tether’s Circulating Supply Remains Stable at $72.537 billion

With respect to the amount of Tether issued on the various blockchains, USDT issued on Tron continues to exceed that issued on Ethereum. At the time of writing, there is a $72.537 billion worth of Tether in circulation, broken down on the various blockchains as follows:

• Tron – $38.735 billion
• Ethereum – $36.815 billion
• Solana – $1.889 billion
• Omni – $1.335 billion
• Avalanche – $651 million
• Algorand – $158.99 million
• EOS – $85.251 million
• Liquid – $36.561 million
• SLP – $5.987 million
• Statemine – $500k
• Polygon  – $0

Tether’s Market Cap Remains Stable After This Month’s Stablecoin Jitters

To note is that Tether is still ranked third in terms of market capitalization and has witnessed an $11 billion reduction in its market cap as a result of stablecoin jitters in the crypto market catalyzed by UST’s massive depegging event.

However, zooming out to view Tether’s market capitalization data over the years, it can be concluded that USDT’s growth is still unmatched in the stablecoin arena. The chart below, courtesy of Coinmarketcap, further provides a visual cue of Tether’s growth over the years.