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Dreading September? Bitcoin price hopes to break the slump trend

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Dreading September? Bitcoin price hopes to break the slump trend

Bitcoin (BTC) has been struggling to break the $50,000 mark for over 10 days now. However, on Sept. 2, the premium cryptocurrency briefly surpassed the milestone, sending positive ripples across the market. Since then, the token has dropped below the mark to trade in the $49,000 range before rebounding to hit the $50,000 mark yet again on Sept. 3.

As Bitcoin often behaves in a cyclical pattern, a look at the monthly trends for September could reveal patterns in the price, which in turn could be helpful to gauge the outlook for the upcoming month. Historically, September has been one of the more lackluster months for BTC. A look at the monthly price data since 2013 reveals that the token has posted positive gains in September twice in eight years — in 2015 and 2016 — with a maximum of 6%, which could be considered to be almost flat.

Pete Humiston, manager of Kraken Intelligence — the research department of the Kraken exchange — told Cointelegraph about what this trend could mean for this year:

“September is historically Bitcoin’s worst-performing month. That said, it has been verging on $50,000 for the past three weeks or so now. Should Bitcoin stage a breakout above this psychologically significant milestone, it could renew investor interest and spark the momentum needed to carry it all the way back to $60,000.”

In fact, BTC has posted red in September in four of the last five years, making it the bleakest period for the coin. However, the $50,000 mark is considered to be one of the significant resistance levels for this asset ever since it broke the barrier just days after Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk announced that the company had bought BTC worth $1.5 billion on Feb. 8, along with starting to accept Bitcoin as a payment method. The token briefly going past this resistance level at the onset of this month could be a positive sign for the asset.

Cointelegraph discussed the current scenario with Hunain Naseer, senior analyst at OKEx Insights — the research team at cryptocurrency exchange OKEx. He said, “As things stand today, BTC’s struggle under $50,000 is the big fight bulls need to win before we can look at $60,000. The move from $50K to $60K is likely to be much faster than the current move between $40K to $50K.”

S2F model sees lesser deflection

Twitter user PlanB’s stock-to-flow (S2F) model has been one of the most accurate quantitative models that attempt to evaluate and forecast the price of Bitcoin. It does this based on the supply injections of the asset into circulation in a certain period. According to the model, the price of Bitcoin is supposed to have gone past $100,000 to exchange hands around the $105,000 mark.

However, BTC is currently recovering from a larger deflection from S2F at the end of July when it seemed like the model could be invalidated. This is not the first time that the price of Bitcoin negatively deviated from the model. The deviation began at the end of October 2018 and lasted until mid-June 2019 for a duration of nearly seven months. In comparison, the current ongoing negative variation has lasted only about three months. It is noteworthy here that for the rest of the year, the S2F model is considerably flat and forecasts a similar range at the beginning of the fourth quarter.

Naseer further discussed the model’s forecasts in comparison to the market price, saying, “Given the current sentiment and long-term fundamentals, it is not out of the question for BTC to hit $100K by December, especially since October and November have historically been big months for Bitcoin. They could easily set it up to touch $100K by mid-December before any corrections.”

Concerning this model, Jake Wujastyk, chief market analyst at TrendSpider, a technical analysis software company, told Cointelegraph, “Based on using the measured move from the March 2020 low to the October 2020 candle (seven months), applying this measured move to the June 2021 low would put this right around $100,000 by the end of the year, assuming the move is the same.”

Related: Mass appeal: Could a Bitcoin futures EFT electrify US investors?

Even though the S2F model has been highly accurate in forecasting the price of Bitcoin until now, it is important to note that all technical indicators have their limitations. Humiston spoke more on the broader perspective of the cryptocurrency market, saying, “A move to $100,000 in four months would require a significant inflow of capital. While certainly not impossible, it seems improbable now that investors’ attention has turned to alternative crypto assets such as Ether, Cardano and Solana.”

Altcoin boom may prevent $100K BTC this year

While Bitcoin has been slowly creeping towards the $50,000 mark and, in fact, struggling to hold it currently, altcoins like Ether (ETH), Cardano (ADA) and Solana (SOL) have been on an absolute tear in the last few weeks.

According to data from CoinMarketCap, in the previous seven days at the time of writing, BTC has posted 6.40%. In comparison, altcoins have dwarfed these numbers, with SOL posting 73.83%, ETH posting 26.57% and ADA posting 15.97% in the same duration. SOL and ADA have recently posted new all-time highs as well in September.

This altcoin boom has put the Bitcoin Dominance (BTCD) Index down to 41.46% at the time of writing, according to data from TradingView.com. This is similar to the levels it had reached back in June 2018. The CEO of crypto exchange KuCoi, Johnny Lyu, told Cointelegraph:

“It is important to understand how ETH and other altcoins are able to compete with BTC for the money of new investors and how those who have been on the market for a long time can behave[…] Crypto mass adoption cannot be achieved without the prosperity of altcoins. Many market participants believe that at the current price level, it is the value of altcoins that is more prone to a multiple increase.”

The price of Solana, for example, has grown more than 100 times since the beginning of the year. Even PlanB’s optimistic S2F model for BTC forecasts its value to be just over $100,000 by the end of the year, only three times the token’s value at the beginning of the year. Such vast differences in returns could even push investors to choose altcoins as their investment vehicle over Bitcoin.

However, the institutional interest in Bitcoin is seeing an upwind as compared with the levels seen in June and July. Microstrategy made yet another purchase of BTC on Aug. 24, this time worth $177 million. This amounts to a total of 105,085 BTC, valued at $5.2 billion currently and is 0.5% of the maximum supply of 21 million BTC.

Related: How to prepare for the end of the bull run, Part 1: Timing

Even one of the most prominent financial institutions globally, Citigroup Inc., is considering trading Bitcoin futures offered by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the largest derivatives exchange in the world. According to the recent report, the banking firm is waiting for regulatory approval to trade in this derivatives instrument.

Lyu further talked about how the growth of the cryptocurrency market as a whole is renewing institutional interest in the industry, stating, “The gradual recovery of institutional interest in cryptocurrency is already obvious. Positive news about SpaceX’s investments in Bitcoin, the network upgrades of Ethereum in August and Cardano in September — all of this neutralizes the bear market of May and June and strengthens the confidence of market participants in further growth.”

Wujastyk also suggested that the price movements that Bitcoin has made over the last few months require the injection of large amounts of capital to move the market, which indicates that institutional capital is definitely involved. This market momentum that currently exists for both Bitcoin and altcoins could be the differentiating factor leading to a historically dreaded month for the cryptocurrency market.

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BTC, ETH, XRP, ZEN, SNX, WAVES, AVA – Technical Analysis Sept 16

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BTC, ETH, XRP, ZEN, SNX, WAVES, AVA – Technical Analysis Sept 16

Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) have broken out from descending parallel channels.

XRP (XRP) is trading above the $1.05 horizontal support area.

Horizen (ZEN) is trying to break out above the $108 resistance area.

Synthetix (SNX) has broken out from an ascending triangle.

Waves (WAVES) has moved above the $26.80 resistance area.

Travala.com (AVA) has broken out from a descending resistance line.

BTC

BTC has been moving upwards since Sept 14. On Sept 15, it managed to break out from a descending parallel channel and accelerated. 

The upward move is supported by both the RSI and MACD, which are increasing. The former has even crossed above 50. 

BTC is approaching the 0.618 Fib retracement resistance level at $49,050. However, due to a confluence of Fib levels, it’s possible that it could increase all the way to $50,750.

ETH

On Sept 15, ETH broke out from a descending parallel channel that had been in place since Sept 7. It has been increasing at an accelerated rate since. 

The upward move is supported by both the increasing MACD and RSI readings. 

However, ETH has reached a confluence of Fib resistance levels between $3,625 and $3,635. These levels are the 1:1.61 length of waves A:C and the 0.618 Fib retracement resistance level (white).

XRP

On Aug 13, XRP broke out from the $1.05 horizontal resistance area. It proceeded to reach a high of $1.41 on Sept 6 before dropping sharply the next day. 

Following this, it validated the $1.05 area as support. 

However, even though XRP is trading above the $1.05 support area, indicators are bearish. The MACD and RSI are both decreasing.

ZEN

ZEN has been increasing above an ascending support line since July 16. On Sept 6, it was rejected by the $108 horizontal resistance area and returned to validate the support line once again. 

However, ZEN rebounded and made another breakout attempt on Sept 15. 

Despite the strong bounce, ZEN failed to break out. In addition, both the RSI and MACD have created bearish divergences. 

Therefore, at the current time, we cannot determine if ZEN will be able to move above this resistance.

SNX

SNX began trading inside an ascending triangle on May 21. After several unsuccessful attempts, it managed to break out on Sept 15. 

The breakout is supported by the increasing MACD and RSI values. 

The closest resistance area is found at $23.80.

WAVES

WAVES has been increasing above an ascending support line since July 20. 

On Aug 31, it broke out above the $26.80 resistance area. 

After this, it returned to validate the area as support, also touching the ascending support and Supertrend lines (green icon). It has been moving upwards since. 

The closest resistance area is at the all-time high level near $38. 

AVA

On Aug 14, AVA broke out from a descending resistance line that had been in place since April and reached a high of $5.40 on Sept 6. 

However, it was rejected by the $5.40 resistance area and fell. 

It then found support at $3.50, creating two lower wicks. In addition to this, the RSI has generated a hidden bullish divergence, which is a common sign of trend continuation.

Therefore, AVA could be on its way to revisit the $5.40 resistance area.

For BeInCrypto’s latest Bitcoin (BTC) analysis, click here.

Disclaimer

All the information contained on our website is published in good faith and for general information purposes only. Any action the reader takes upon the information found on our website is strictly at their own risk.

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AMC to Support Ethereum, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash Following BTC Adoption

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AMC to Support Ethereum, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash Following BTC Adoption

AMC Theatres will accept payments in Ethereum, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash by the end of 2021, in addition to bitcoin.

AMC Theatres, the world’s largest theater chain, has announced that it will accept more cryptocurrencies for payment by the end of 2021. The cryptocurrencies that it will support include bitcoin, ethereum, litecoin, and bitcoin cash. This marks yet another notable adoption for the cryptocurrency market, which has had a stellar 2021.

AMC expands crypto payment options

The company’s CEO, Adam Aron, tweeted the news on Sept 16, saying that crypto could be used to pay for online ticket and concession payments by the year’s end. AMC revealed that it would accept bitcoin in August 2021, to much fanfare.

This year has already seen Tesla accept bitcoin as payments for its electric vehicles, though it suspended that later. PayPal has also expanded into cryptocurrencies and is ramping up its support for the market.

The news of AMC Theatres accepting cryptocurrency payments will please investors, as the chain is a notable brand with some clout. The firm has also come to the attention of the public lately for its support from within Reddit’s wallstreetbets community. While the support was not quite as strong as it was for GameStop, those retail investors have helped drive the price of AMC’s stock up.

In short, the acceptance of crypto payments should stir further interest from a community that is already knowledgeable about crypto. Incidentally, GameStop also announced a foray into the blockchain and crypto space when it announced that it was working on a series of NFTs.

Bitcoin and crypto steadily seeing greater adoption

The crypto world has been subject to a lot of good news in terms of adoption this year. The support coming for crypto payments has been varied, with entities in a highly varied set of industries taking the step. The signs have been very optimistic at the retail level.

The travel industry can benefit a great deal from bitcoin payments — and a luxury hotel in Switzerland has gone to facilitate that. Switzerland, which is known for its hub of crypto companies and entrepreneurs, has over 85,000 merchants supporting crypto payments.

Other established companies supporting crypto payments include auction house Lloyd’s. Auction houses have been very interested in blockchain technology, particularly NFTs. Many of them have conducted auctions for NFTs, selling them for many millions.

Disclaimer

All the information contained on our website is published in good faith and for general information purposes only. Any action the reader takes upon the information found on our website is strictly at their own risk.

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El Salvador’s Chivo Bitcoin Wallet Crosses 500,000 Users

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El Salvador’s Chivo Bitcoin Wallet Crosses 500,000 Users

El Salvador’s Chivo bitcoin wallet has already crossed 500,000 users, as revealed by local news reports.

El Salvador’s digital bitcoin wallet Chivo has already hit half a million users, according to reports from local media. The country introduced the wallet on Sept 7.

Users receive $30 in bitcoin when they download the wallet for the first time as an incentive. As of Sept 7, the country had purchased 400 bitcoins for its coffers — which by all accounts is ambivalent in terms of its success.

El Salvador’s bitcoin integration is off to a somewhat rocky start, as there have been several protests against its adoption. Protests have come from both opposition forces and citizens — with the latter marching in the streets and even filing a lawsuit.

The country has used a number of measures to incentivize people to use bitcoin. Foreigners, for example, are exempt from paying capital gains tax on their bitcoin profits. In addition, they receive permanent residency if they decide to move and have an entrepreneurial venture.

https://s32659.pcdn.co/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/El-Salvador.mp4
Source: /u/kiarga

Some El Salvadorians have taken to Reddit to talk about the general sentiment surrounding bitcoin. The country celebrated its Independence Day on Sep. 15, and many protested against the current government in the streets. News broke that vandals destroyed bitcoin ATMs in the country, which is further evidence of displeasure with the new law.

One Redditor spoke about bitcoin further cementing existing inequalities — a concern that was one of the major issues citizens have with the government. They also note that the bitcoins in the Chivo wallet could be seized by the government.

One thing that cannot be denied is the fact that BTC payments do indeed reduce costs for cross-border payments. Other countries in the region are keeping a close eye on the development, which is the first of its kind.

Will more countries follow?

It’s unlikely that a large swathe of countries will follow El Salvador’s lead. Most governments are determined to release their own central bank digital currency (CBDC). Those that have accepted cryptocurrencies as an asset class have done so begrudgingly and are laboring to form a regulatory framework.

The idea of making bitcoin legal tender has been rebutted by China, India, and Russia. With important economies dismissing the asset as having such an important role in the economy, most other countries will likely take the same position.

Having said that, the El Salvador bitcoin experiment could turn up some surprising results. If bitcoin does indeed become the medium for cross-border transactions, then this could encourage more countries to do the same.

Disclaimer

All the information contained on our website is published in good faith and for general information purposes only. Any action the reader takes upon the information found on our website is strictly at their own risk.

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