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How low can Ethereum price drop versus Bitcoin amid the DeFi contagion?

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How low can Ethereum price drop versus Bitcoin amid the DeFi contagion?

Ethereum’s native token Ether (ETH) has declined by more than 35% against Bitcoin (BTC) since December 2021 with a potential to decline further in the coming months.

ETH/BTC weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

ETH/BTC dynamics

The ETH/BTC pair’s bullish trends typically suggest an increasing risk appetite among crypto traders, where speculation is more focused on Ether’s future valuations versus keeping their capital long-term in BTC. 

Conversely, a bearish ETH/BTC cycle is typically accompanied by a plunge in altcoins and Ethereum’s decline in market share. As a result, traders seek safety in BTC, showcasing their risk-off sentiment within the crypto industry.

Ethereum TVL wipe-out

Interest in the Ethereum blockchain soared during the pandemic as developers started turning to it to create a wave of so-called decentralized finance projects, including peer-to-peer exchange and lending platforms.

That resulted in a boom in the total value locked (TVL) inside the Ethereum blockchain ecosystem, rising from $465 million in March 2020 to as high as $159 billion in November 2021, up more than 34,000%, according to data from DeFi Llama.

Ethereum TVL performance since 2019. Source: DeFi Llama

Interestingly, ETH/BTC surged 345% to 0.08, a 2021 peak, in the same period, given an increase in demand for transactions on the Ethereum blockchain. However, the pair has since dropped over 35% and was trading for 0.057 BTC on June 26.

ETH/BTC’s drop coincides with a massive plunge in Ethereum TVL, from $159 billion in November 2021 to $48.81 billion in June 2022, led by a contagion fears in the DeFi industry.

Also, institutions have withdrawn $458 million this year from Ethereum-based investment funds as of June 17, suggesting that interest in Ethereum’s DeFi boom has been waning.

Bitcoin struggling but stronger than Ether

Bitcoin has faced smaller downsides compared to Ether in the ongoing bear market.

BTC’s price has dropped nearly 70% to around $21,500 since November 2021, versus Ether’s 75% drop in the same period.

Also, unlike Ethereum, Bitcoin-focused investment funds have seen inflows of $480 million year-to-date, showing that BTC’s drop has done little to curb its demand among institutional investors.

Investment flows into/out of crypto funds by assets. Source: CoinShares

ETH/BTC downside targets

Capital flows, coupled with an increasing distrust in the DeFi sector, could keep benefiting Bitcoin over Ethereum in 2022, resulting in more downside for ETH/BTC.

Related: Swan Bitcoin CEO against crypto lenders: Users are way under-compensated for the risk

From a technical perspective, the pair has been holding above a support confluence defined by a rising trendline, a Fibonacci retracement level at 0.048 BTC, and its 200-week exponential moving average (200-week EMA; the blue wave in the chart below) near 0.049 BTC.

ETH/BTC weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

In a rebound, ETH/BTC could test the 0.5 Fib line next near 0.062. Conversely, a decisive break below the support confluence could mean a decline toward the 0.786 Fib line at 0.027 in 2022, down more than 50% from today’s price.

The ETH/BTC breakdown might coincide with an extended ETH/USD market decline, primarily due to the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightenig that has recently pressured crypto prices lower against the U.S. dollar. 

— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) June 25, 2022

Conversely, weaker economic data could prompt the Fed to cool down on its tightening spree. This could limit Ether and the other crypto assets’ downside bias in the dollar market, per Informa Global Markets.

The firm noted:

“Macroeconomic conditions need to improve and the Fed’s aggressive approach to monetary policy has to subside before crypto markets see a bottom.”

But given Ethereum has never reclaimed its all-time high against Bitcoin since June 2017 despite a strong adoption rate, the ETH/BTC pair could remain under pressure with the 0.027-target in sight.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Nearly Taps $25,000 Level For the First Time Since June

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Bitcoin (BTC) Nearly Taps $25,000 Level For the First Time Since June

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing several bullish signs in the daily time frame but has yet to break out from a short-term corrective pattern.

Bitcoin has been moving upwards since reaching a long-term low of $17,622 on June 18. On July 19, it broke out from a long-term descending resistance line, which had been in place since the end of March. 

On Aug. 11, BTC reached a local high of $24,918, which was the highest since June 12. However, it failed to sustain this increase and created a long upper wick in its daily candlestick (red icon).

If the upward movement continues, the closest resistance area would be found at $29,370. This target is the 0.382 Fib retracement resistance level.

An interesting reading comes from the daily RSI, which moved above 50 at the same time which the price broke out from the descending resistance line. 

Since then, the RSI has created an ascending triangle (dashed), which is often considered a bullish pattern. The indicator is currently at 61, right at the resistance line of this pattern. 

Therefore, a breakout above it would likely also cause the price to accelerate upwards.

Short-term BTC pattern

Despite the relative bullishness from the daily time frame, the six-hour chart shows that BTC has been trading inside an ascending parallel channel since the June 18 bottom. Such channels usually contain corrective patterns, meaning that an eventual breakdown from it would be expected. 

Moreover, the price has created what resembles an even shorter-term double top (red icons), which is considered a bearish pattern made at the resistance line of the channel.

On Aug. 9 (green circle), the price rebounded from the midline of this channel and at a short-term ascending support line. 

So, whether BTC breaks out from the channel or breaks down from the support line will likely determine the direction of the future trend.

Wave count analysis

The main wave count indicates that BTC is likely in wave three of a five-wave upward move (black). The sub-wave count is shown in yellow, and also suggests that the price is in wave three. So, this seems to be a 1-2/1-2 wave formation. If correct, it would mean that the upward move will accelerate in the near future. 

In order for the count to remain correct, Bitcoin has to hold on above the slope of the original 1-2 (black).

The most likely long-term wave count is also bullish, aligning with the proposed short-term count.

For Be[in]Crypto’s previous Bitcoin (BTC) analysis, click here

Disclaimer

All the information contained on our website is published in good faith and for general information purposes only. Any action the reader takes upon the information found on our website is strictly at their own risk.

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Binance recovers the majority of funds stolen from Curve Finance

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Binance recovers the majority of funds stolen from Curve Finance

Binance recovered and froze around $450,000 worth of the stolen assets, which is around 80 percent of the stolen funds.

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Binance recovers the majority of funds stolen from Curve Finance

Crypto exchange Binance has recovered a big part of the funds from the recent hack that targeted the decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol Curve Finance. 

In a tweet, Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao announced that the exchange has frozen and recovered $450,000 of the stolen assets, which is more than 80 percent of the stolen funds. According to Zhao, the hacker tried to send the funds to the exchange in various ways but was detected by Binance. The exchange is currently working to return the funds to their rightful owners.

The Curve Finance team detected the hack on Tuesday and alerted their users to refrain from using their website. An hour after the warning, the team announced that it was able to find and resolve the issue. However, the attackers were still able to hijack around $537,000 worth of USD Coin (USDC) before the issue was resolved.

According to experts from the blockchain analytics firm Elliptic, a hacker compromised the domain name system (DNS) of Curve Finance, which ended with malicious transactions getting signed. The experts told Cointelegraph that the funds were then sent to various exchanges and crypto mixers in an attempt to hide the trail. In the end, the funds were sent to Binance and were caught by its team.

Related: Cross-chains in the crosshairs: Hacks call for better defense mechanisms

This is not the first time this week that the good actors in the crypto community have worked to return stolen funds. On Monday, whitehat hackers and researchers returned an estimated $32.6 million worth of USDC, Tether (USDT) and other altcoins to Nomad, following the recent $190 million exploit.

The Curve Finance exploit is only one of the many attacks that happened in 2022. According to analytics firm Chainalysis, $2 billion worth of funds were drained because of cross-chain bridge hacks. This is 69% of the overall stolen amount in the year.

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Institutional staking won’t take off unless asset lock-up solved: Coinbase CFO

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Institutional staking won’t take off unless asset lock-up solved: Coinbase CFO

Coinbase’s new institutional-focused staking product won’t be a “near-term phenomenon” while liquid staking is still being worked out.

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Institutional staking won’t take off unless asset lock-up solved: Coinbase CFO

Institutional staking of crypto assets, including the post-Merge Ethereum, could become a “phenomenon” in the future, but not while their assets still need to be “locked up.”

Speaking during a Q2 earnings call on Tuesday, chief financial officer Alesia Haas noted that she didn’t expect their new exclusive institutional staking service, rolled out in Q2, to be a “near-term phenomenon” until a “truly liquid staking option” is available:

“This is the first time we had the products available. Previously, the way that institutions could have access to staking is via Coinbase Cloud […] But offering it as the delegated staking service similar to what we have for retail customers.”

However, Haas said it was still “early days” for their new staking service, adding they’ll likely only see a “real material impact” when they have created a liquid staking option for post-Merge Ethereum, also known as Eth2.

Liquid staking is the process of locking up funds to earn staking rewards, while still having access to the funds. 

Haas explained that many financial institutions “don’t want their assets held indefinitely:”

“So when you stake ETH2 you are locking in your assets into Ethereum until the Merge and then some period after. For some institutions, that liquidity lock-up is not palatable to them. And so, while they may be interested in staking, they want to have staking on a liquid asset.”

Haas reaffirmed this issue is “something we are looking to solve,” and added that once this liquid staking is available for financial institutions that can pool in funds at higher proportions, “we’ll see the real material impact of institutional revenue.”

Related: Coinbase partners with BlackRock to create new access points for institutional crypto investing

Investors and institutions have been able to access Coinbase’s delegated staking service through Coinbase Prime, which was first launched in Sep. 2021. The platform also offers other integrated services, such as access to a custody wallet with enhanced security, real-time crypto market data and analytics, and other crypto-native features like decentralized governance.

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