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Look out below! Ethereum derivatives data hints at further downside from ETH

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Look out below! Ethereum derivatives data hints at further downside from ETH

Ether (ETH) is down 38% in three weeks and the current $2,000 level is 59% below the $4,870 all-time high that was reached in November 2021. Additional newsflow that added to the current market wide volatility were the bankruptcy fears that emerged after Coinbase, the largest U.S. exchange reported a $430 million first-quarter 2022 loss

In the most recent 10-Q filing Coinbase included the following disclosure:

“In the event of a bankruptcy, the crypto assets we hold on behalf of our customers may be subject to bankruptcy proceedings.”

Regulatory uncertainty was also partially responsible for Ether’s sharp correction. On May 11, Kukmin, a South Korea-based newspaper, reported a leaked draft of the upcoming governmental “Digital Asset Basic Act (DABA)” bill. The administration of South Korea expects to introduce a regulatory framework for initial coin offerings (ICOs), along with a 20% tax on crypto gains above $2,100 per year.

Another factor impacting markets is investors’ confidence in stablecoins. On May 11, USD Tether (USDT), the largest stablecoin by market capitalization, broke below its peg, and traded under $0.99 on major exchanges. However, Tether and Bitfinex chief technology officer Paulo Ardoino highlighted that USDT has maintained its stability through multiple black swan events and “continues to process redemptions normally.”

Options traders are unwilling to offer downside protection

To understand how larger-sized traders are positioned, one should look at Ether’s futures and options market data. The 25% delta skew is a telling sign whenever arbitrage desks and market makers overcharge for upside or downside protection.

If those traders fear an Ether price crash, the skew indicator will move above 10%. On the other hand, generalized excitement reflects a negative 10% skew. That is precisely why the metric is known as the pro traders’ fear and greed metric.

Ether 30-day options 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas.ch

The skew indicator has been above 10% since April 23 and it skyrocketed to a 29% peak on May 12. In addition to signaling extreme fear from options traders, the metric has reached the highest level ever registered.

The past three weeks showed a remarkable sentiment deterioration and the current 27% delta skew shows a clear unbalanced risk for unexpected upward and downward price swings.

Related: Untethered – Here’s everything you need to know about TerraUSD, Tether and other stablecoins

Long-to-short data confirms traders are avoiding risk

The top traders’ long-to-short net ratio excludes externalities that might have impacted specific derivatives instruments. By analyzing these top clients’ positions on the spot, perpetual and futures contracts, one can better understand whether professional traders are leaning bullish or bearish.

There are occasional methodological discrepancies between different exchanges, so viewers should monitor changes instead of absolute figures.

Exchanges’ top traders Ether long-to-short ratio. Source: Coinglass

Even though Ether plunged 29% since March 11 to a $1,700 low, professional traders reduced their bullish bets according to the long-to-short indicator. OKX’s top traders’ ratio decreased from 1.25 to the current 0.85 level.

Binance data also shows these traders reducing their longs from 1.03 to 0.98, while at Huobi it stood unchanged at 1.00. This signals that there has been hardly any buying activity from whales and market makers amid the sharp correction in Ether price.

There is simply no way to sugarcoat Ether’s current derivatives data because both indicators reflect a lack of confidence from professional investors. The option traders overcharging for downside protection suggests that Ether can go below $1,700 according to risk metrics.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Grayscale Launches New Investment Product While Bitcoin Trust Crashes to 35%

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Grayscale Launches New Investment Product While Bitcoin Trust Crashes to 35%

Grayscale Investments is offering investors an opportunity to invest in Bitcoin mining hardware in the bear market.

The new investment opportunity, called the Grayscale Digital Infrastructure Opportunities LLC (GDIO), is now open to qualified individual and institutional investors, even as the asset manager allows ETF-related court proceedings to run their course.

Grayscale putting capital to work

Grayscale will use investor capital from the GDIO to buy mining hardware for a minimum of three years. It will use the hardware to mine and subsequently sell bitcoin. Mining is the energy-intensive process undertaken by a computer network to create a new transaction block and verify it. The node in the network that creates the block is known as a miner. A miner is rewarded in bitcoin for his effort, which typically requires large amounts of cheap electricity and computing power.

Part of the proceeds Grayscale will earn from its efforts will be paid out quarterly to GDIO investors.

“Grayscale’s unique position at the center of the crypto ecosystem enables us to create offerings that allow investors to put capital to work through differing market cycles,” stated Michael Sonnenshein, Grayscale’s chief executive.

GDIO represents another way the company has sought to provide investors with exposure to bitcoin without directly holding the asset.

Investors can also purchase shares from its GBTC trust and gain exposure to bitcoin through Grayscale’s legally regulated business in the U.S.

But Grayscale has a problem. Because investors cannot redeem shares in the trust for bitcoin, the price per share has dropped drastically, trading at a discount of 35% to its Net Asset Value. 

At the close of the trading day on Oct. 5, shares were trading at a shade over $12, despite being backed by $18.45 worth of bitcoin.

To mitigate this discount, Grayscale has pursued the conversion of GBTC into a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund, which has so far been unsuccessful. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission denied the company’s latest application in June 2022, prompting Grayscale to pursue legal action against the federal agency. 

Nic Carter of Castle Island Ventures, a venture capital firm focused on early-stage public blockchain startups, said that Grayscale could wind down the ETF:

watching the GBTC discount. looks like ATL at -35%. on top of discounted spot BTC. paths to breaking open the piggy bank: SEC can approve ETF conversion, or Grayscale can wind down the trust themselves if they so choose.

— nic carter (@nic__carter) June 17, 2022

The SEC maintains that spot bitcoin ETFs are prone to underlying market manipulation.

Grayscale undeterred by SEC rejection

Despite consistent resistance from U.S. regulators, Grayscale launched its first European ETF in May 2022, which tracks the Bloomberg Grayscale Future of Finance Index, offering customers exposure to institutions at the crossroads of finance, technology, and cryptocurrencies.

Grayscale raised investors’ eyebrows recently when it announced that it had applied with the SEC to distribute 3 million ETHPoW tokens that were distributed to all Ethereum (ETH) holders after the controversial proof-of-work fork went live. 

At the time, Grayscale said it was seeking the rights to sell the tokens and pay out shareholders. 

Disclaimer

All the information contained on our website is published in good faith and for general information purposes only. Any action the reader takes upon the information found on our website is strictly at their own risk.

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Colorado is accepting crypto for tax payments — it could be a mess or a shining example

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Colorado is accepting crypto for tax payments —  it could be a mess or a shining example

Colorado is now accepting crypto for tax payments — but if you choose to use that option, it could change the amount you owe…
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BNB Chain confirms BSC halt due to ‘potential exploit’

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BNB Chain confirms BSC halt due to ‘potential exploit’

Rumors of a significant hack on the BNB Chain were confirmed by the blockchain’s team, with all deposits and withdrawals suspended on the network…
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