Tech
Media Briefing: A snapshot of the digital media economy at the start of earnings season
In this week’s Media Briefing, media editor Kayleigh Barber examines the state of the digital media economy as major tech platforms report quarterly earnings and advertising and commerce businesses remain in flux.
Businesses on the brink
The key hits:
- IAC’s Dotdash Meredith saw an 18% decrease in its pro forma digital revenue in June 2022 compared to June 2021.
- Platforms like Google, Twitter and Snap are already reporting lower revenue than expected, blaming “macroeconomic headwinds” as a primary reason for down ad revenue.
- Media advisors and analysts say they’re seeing warning signs but are waiting to see how much of a hit certain advertising categories take before proclaiming a recession.
Not all media analysts are ready to call it a recession, but there are plenty of red flags popping up in the digital advertising economy.
Earlier this month, IAC issued its June Monthly Metrics report revealing its media subsidiary Dotdash Meredith had an 18% decrease in pro forma digital revenue in June 2022 compared to June 2021 — pro forma measures Dotdash’s comparable revenue from before and after its acquisition of Meredith last December. For context, this decrease followed a smaller 3% year-over-year decline in pro forma digital revenue in May.
Representatives from Dotdash Meredith declined to speak further about the reasons for why pro forma digital revenue was down in June, stating that the company does not break out the various businesses — commerce, programmatic advertising, branded content, licensing and others — in its monthly or quarterly earnings reports.
While one company does not speak for the whole of the industry, it does beg the question if Dotdash Meredith is alone in experiencing a decrease in revenue at the halfway point of the year. And beyond that, how much the economic slowdown of 2022 mirrors the pandemic-induced recession of 2020.
“That was a quick recovery [in 2020]. Q2 was rough but then Q3 bounced back. I don’t know if this one’s going to be so quick. It will for sure take us into 2023,” said one publishing exec.
Programmatic ebbs and slows
The programmatic open marketplace is experiencing dips in CPMs compared to the weekly averages it saw in 2021. According to Operative’s STAQ Benchmarking Data, the first week of June 2022 had an average CPM of $1.58, nearly $0.20 lower than the average CPM the same week in 2021. By the first week of July, however, average CPMs fell to $1.41, the second lowest CPM of the year after the week of January 2, 2022. That was more than $0.20 lower than the same week’s average in 2021.
“There’s always a dropoff [in programmatic ad prices] at the end of the quarter and start of the new quarter,” said another publishing executive. “The drop we saw was not terrible. It was there. It wasn’t bigger than expected, but I think the recovery from the drop is slower than expected.”
Big Tech sees weak advertiser demand
The official second-quarter earnings reports for many public media companies won’t be out until August. At that point, they will help further unpack just how significant of an impact the economic slowdown has had on the digital media industry, but in the meantime, some of the major platforms are already reporting that 2022 is not the growth year executives once hoped for.
- Meta reported its first-ever revenue decline in its Q2 earnings report of a 1% decrease year-over-year to $28.8 billion. The company also predicts that its total revenue will be lower in Q3 in the range of $26-28.5 billion as a result of the “continuation of the weak advertising demand environment we experienced throughout the second quarter, which we believe is being driven by broader macroeconomic uncertainty.”
- Google’s “18-month run of blistering growth” is over, according to The Information, after second-quarter revenue for the search engine’s parent company Alphabet was only 13% year-over-year as opposed to the 20-plus percent growth it saw for the past six quarters.
- Snap opened its letter to investors by saying: “The second quarter of 2022 proved more challenging than we expected.” Revenue for the social media platform company was also up 13% year-over-year, but “revenue growth has substantially slowed,” and “we are also seeing increasing competition for advertising dollars that are now growing more slowly,” the letter read.
- Twitter’s Q2 revenue decreased by 1% year-over-year to $1.18 billion, 11% below the estimated 10.5% growth, according to CNBC. The company blamed its down revenue on the uncertain status of Elon Musk buying the social media platform, but its advertising revenue increased by only 2% year-over-year, totaling $1.08 billion. The remainder of its revenue comes from its subscription business Twitter Blue, which totaled $101 million, representing a decrease of 27% year-over-year.
“It’s not a slam dunk to pronounce [a recession] today. There are plenty of warning flags, though,” said Todd Krizelman, CEO of MediaRadar. “Google’s [second quarter] results reinforced what we see, which is, some segments have slowed down but others are going like gangbusters.”
Up and down ad categories
Krizelman is correct in saying that what’s going on in the industry is not a blanket statement. Just like in Q2 2020, certain advertising categories are experiencing decreases while others are growing.
- Travel is up 82% year-over-year in the first six months of 2022 versus the same period in 2021. This category expands from airlines and luggage companies to helicopter charter flights and local ice rinks, Krizelman said.
- Meanwhile, all food advertising, including CPG brands, is down about 2% in the first half of 2022 compared to 2021. Wine, beer and spirits is also down a whopping 21% year-over-year, per MediaRadar.
- Beauty is up 20% with people going out and about more, and home furnishings is up 12% as many major retailers are now sitting on a surplus of products after supply chain issues were resolved, Krizelman said.
- Restaurants and bars are down 11% in marketing spend as they return to a state of normalcy post-COVID and the pet category is down 9% after the surge of people adopting dogs and cats in the early months of the pandemic has finally waned.
With the categories in flux — and with many “up” categories being different in 2022 than the ones up in 2020 — advertising agencies and ad tech vendors are also readjusting their predictions for revenue growth this year.
Financial advisory Macquarie Group released a set of research from its clients in the media and entertainment, ad tech and advertising categories revealing the decreases in predicted annual revenue for 2022 as of June.
At the mid-year point, Macquarie found the average revenue growth rate predicted for the full year of 2022 decreased from 9.9% to 9.7% year-over-year for media & entertainment, from 23.2% to 21.4% for ad tech and from 6% to 5.1% for advertising. While this might not seem like a drastic dip — the aforementioned stats would all mark year-over-year increases, after all — it’s important to recognize that many companies across the industry are reconciling with the fact that initial growth goals will not be met this year.
No business is safe, not even commerce
Ad revenue is not the only area of publishers’ businesses that are at risk. Earlier this week, Shopify laid off 10% of its staff — approximately 1,000 employees — as “consumers resume old shopping habits and pull back on the online orders that fueled the company’s recent growth,” according to a report by The Wall Street Journal.
This trend of consumer behavior, of course, threatens publishers’ e-commerce businesses as well, and if a recession leads to shoppers spending less altogether, the whole industry will be in a vicious cycle. In July, the U.S. consumer confidence index fell for the third consecutive month.
“A [gross domestic product] slowdown will lead to an ad slowdown, which will impact everybody,” said Tim Nollen, a director and senior analyst for the media, entertainment, advertising & ad tech division of Macquarie. The U.S. will report GDP growth — or lack thereof — for Q2 on Thursday. – Kayleigh Barber
What we’ve heard
“[Podcast revenue] will probably get to 50% [of total revenue this year]. A lot of that depends on how the other lines are growing. We have three lines of business: digital business, audio business, and subscription business that we’re leaning into quite hard.”
The post-cookie identity picture is a freeze frame
A little more than a year ago, Google’s decision to delay its deprecation of third-party cookies in its Chrome browser put publishers’ post-cookie preparations in something of a holding pattern. A year later, they’re still in it (and might be for another couple of years).
“We’re definitely in a holding pattern waiting to see what comes next,” said one publishing executive.
To be clear, publishers haven’t been sitting on their hands while waiting. They continue to develop their first-party data capabilities and assess alternative identifiers like Unified ID 2.0 — as they were doing before Google’s postponement. But they’re still waiting for the buy side to decide on which alternative IDs advertisers will support. “That’s the sticking point, and I don’t know what we can do to move them along,” said a second publishing executive.
Well, that’s not the only sticking point. Publishers remain leery of the potential for all this alternate ID effort to be for naught (or at least not yet).
“You’ve gotta ask if Google is going to actually kill the cookie,” said the first publishing executive on Tuesday.
The next day, Insider reported that Google plans to postpone its third-party cookie deprecation deadline once again, this time to 2024… at least, and Google confirmed as much in a company blog post stating, “we now intend to begin phasing out third-party cookies in Chrome in the second half of 2024.” Cue Wilson Phillips: I know that there is pain, but you hold on for one more day… — Tim Peterson
Numbers to know
4.4 million: Number of podcasts that were distributed on Spotify during the second quarter of 2022.
84%: Percentage share that came from unregistered non-subscribers across 670 publishers’ sites that have subscription models.
$87 million: Enterprise value of 3BlackDot, a gaming-centric media company that has been purchased by its CEO from Webedia.
27: Number of Twitter Spaces events that The New York Times has held this year, as of its July 8 event on U.K. prime minister Boris Johnson’s resignation.
$60 million: Amount of revenue that Newsweek generated in 2021.
Digiday experiments with NFTs
Digiday launched a special editorial project called Token to Play, including 10 stories exploring the challenges and opportunities associated with NFTs in media, marketing and gaming & esports. In addition to this editorial package, we have also created 10 NFTs of robot avatars as art and are using this drop as an opportunity for experimental journalism where we try our hand at creating and minting NFTs to get a better grasp of these digital assets to inform future reporting. Check out the project here.
What we’ve covered
Instagram makes some meaningful gains with publishers:
- Digiday+ Research surveyed 72 publisher professionals in June about where Instagram fits into the social strategy.
- 58% of respondents said they’re investing a little or a moderate amount on original Instagram content.
Read more about Instagram here.
BDG’s comedy content studio attracts ad dollars to its parenting vertical:
- The BDG Comedy Studio has generated at least $10 million in revenue since BDG acquired it through its purchase of Some Spider Studios in September.
- The comedy studio has worked with 22 different advertisers, roughly 90% of whom are new to BDG.
Read more about BDG here.
How Slate’s Charlie Kammerer is prioritizing frequency to boost podcast revenue:
- The podcast publisher is producing shorter seasons of its shows that can be released more regularly.
- “Slowburn,” “Decoder Ring” and “One Year” are moving from one season per year to two or three.
Listen to the latest Digiday Podcast here.
Publishers hope NFTs will increase event revenue, but slow adoption of blockchain tech leaves attendees unsure:
- Blockworks and CoinDesk have offered NFTs as VIP tickets or freebies for attendees.
- However, even crypto enthusiasts haven’t exactly raced to take the publishers up on the offers.
Read more about NFTs as event revenue here.
NFT holders might become the new membership model but could threaten other revenue streams:
- Blockworks, Playboy and Time have formed communities out of the people who have purchased their NFTs.
- However, the one-time purchases could preclude or disrupt other revenue streams.
Read more about NFTs as membership models here.
What we’re reading
Media execs prep for a recession:
Media executives say their businesses have yet to take a nosedive, but they are girding up for the economic downturn to intensify, such as by slowing hiring and putting on a brave face, according to Vanity Fair.
Layoffs at Vox Media:
Speaking of media companies preparing for a recession, Vox Media has laid off 39 employees and slowed hiring to head off any further economic downturn, according to Axios.
The New Yorker’s archive editor controversy:
The New Yorker fired its archive editor Erin Overbey last week after she spoke out against the publication, alleging the publication had subverted her work after she had called out The New Yorker for a lack of diversity and equity, according to The Daily Beast.
MEL Magazine goes under again:
A year after Recurrent Ventures acquired MEL Magazine following the branded content publication’s shutdown by original owner Dollar Shave Club, its new parent company has shut down the outlet and laid off its entire staff, according to Observer.
The Washington Post reinforces its return-to-office policy:
Post staffers have not been psyched about the news organization’s mandate that employees work from the office three days per week, but the Post’s leadership is holding its ground while allowing for some exemptions, according to Politico.
Tech
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Tech
Web3 and the transition toward true digital ownership
Image Credit: ArtemisDiana/Getty
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How do you think you would answer if I asked you the following question: “What do you own online?”
In real life, you own your home, the car you drive, the watch you wear, and anything else you have purchased. But do you own your email address or your business’s website? How about the pictures that populate your Instagram account? Or the in-game purchases on Fortnite or FIFA video games or whatever else you are playing?
My best guess is, after casting your mind through the things you use the internet for (which for everybody is pretty much everything, social and professional), you would struggle to find a solid answer.
Maybe you would ask me to explain what I mean by “ownership.” But it doesn’t really matter. And while I don’t mean this to be a trick question, it kind of is. Because in the current version of the internet, we don’t have ownership rights online.
Event
MetaBeat 2022
MetaBeat will bring together thought leaders to give guidance on how metaverse technology will transform the way all industries communicate and do business on October 4 in San Francisco, CA.
Digital ownership: Participants and products
To understand why we don’t own anything online, we must first understand the evolution of the internet and how it gave rise to the business model that has dominated its current iteration.
In the 1990s — the decade of desktop computers and dial-up connections — the internet was predominantly a content delivery network consisting of simple static websites showcasing information. What we refer to today as Web1 was slow, siloed, and disorganized.
Next came the platforms, such as Facebook (now Meta) and Google, driven by wireless connectivity and the development of handheld devices like laptops, smartphones, and tablets, which gave us free-to-use services that enabled us to edit, interact with and generate content. These platforms centralized the web, putting in place a top-down structure that saw users reliant on their systems and services.
This evolution of the internet took place in the mid-2000s and is the version we know today. We call it Web2. It is a model based on connectivity and user-generated content, made in the image and interests of companies like Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, and YouTube.
In this environment, netizens are both participants and products. We sign up for services in exchange for our data, which is sold to advertisers, and we create content that generates value and fuels engagement for these platforms. We do all this while having no rights to anything online.
Our social media profiles can be taken down and our access to email accounts or messenger apps suspended. We don’t own any of the digital assets we purchase and have no autonomy over our data. Businesses we build online are often reliant on platforms and are therefore vulnerable to algorithms, data breaches and shadow bans.
The deck is stacked against us. Because the option not to be involved, when so much of the commerce and communication in the world takes place online, is not really an option at all. And yet there is nothing that we can point to and call ours. Nothing we have any actual authority over.
And, it is this dynamic that Web3 is determined to change.
Web3 and the “internet of value”
Right now, when most people hear the term “Web3” they probably think “metaverse”. But a better way to think about Web3 is as the evolution of the internet.
Today, the digital experience is very corporate and very centralized. Web3 will offer the dynamic, app-driven user experience of the current mobile web in a decentralized model, shifting the power from big tech back to the users. It will do this by spreading the data outward — putting it back in the hands of netizens who are then free to use, share and monetize it as they see fit — and expanding the scale and scope of interactions between users and the internet.
Underpinning that expansion will be guaranteed access, which means anyone can use any service without permissions and no one can block, restrict or remove any user’s access.
The idea then is that Web3 will not only be more egalitarian but that it will create an “Internet of Value” because the value generated by the web will be shared much more equitably between users, companies, and services, with much better interoperability. Users will have full ownership, authority, and control over both the content they create and their data. But how will this help us transition toward true digital ownership?
NFTs hold the key to digital ownership
The truth is that digital ownership is not too hard a problem to solve. And we already have the solution: NFTs.
In the public consciousness, NFTs are known for the projects that have garnered the most media attention, such as CryptoPunks and Bored Ape Yacht Club. While projects such as these have catapulted the term into the zeitgeist, the usefulness of the underlying technology has been much less discussed.
Simply put, NFTs act as proof of ownership. The details of the NFT’s holder are recorded on the blockchain, all transactions and transfers are tracked and transparent and available to the public, and everything is managed by the token’s unique ID and metadata.
So, how does this work in practice? Let’s say I create an NFT. As soon as I upload it, a “smart contract” is created that tracks its creation, the current owner, and the royalties I will receive. If someone decides to purchase it, they own that NFT and any additional perks that come with ownership. Their details are registered on the blockchain and nobody can edit or remove them.
Now, let’s say that the market for my NFTs starts to heat up, demand grows and the value of my collection begins to rise. If the owner decides to sell, they make a profit and I earn a small royalty from the resale. The change in ownership is tracked on-chain in real-time and the smart contract ensures my royalty fee is deposited directly in my wallet. This is the key value proposition of NFTs: Verifiable ownership and the option to liquidate digital assets.
What’s next for Web3?
This is what ownership looks like in Web3. It is the promise that netizens will be able to own their digital assets in the same way that they own their home, car and watch. NFTs will usher in a more equitable digital economy and will play a central role in the future of digital commerce.
The fact is that as of right now, we are still writing the Web3 rulebook. This is still a very new, very young space. And while few things are certain, what we can say for sure is that the internet is only moving in one direction: ownership.
The guiding principle in Web3 is to accelerate the transition towards a more equitable digital environment. It is very much opt-in, an internet built by the people for the people. It is one in which ownership is the foundation upon which new products, networks, and experiences are being built. And it is fundamental to establishing the internet of value.
Over the next few years, as Web3 develops it will operate alongside Web2. The infrastructure supporting Web2 is very strong and I don’t see us completely shifting away from that any time soon. However, in the medium-to long-term, Web3 will completely reshape our relationship with the internet.
Filip Martinsson is cofounder and chief operating officer of Moralis.
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Tech
Apple blocked the latest Telegram update over a new animated emoji set
Ever since Apple launched the App Store, developers big and small have gotten caught up in the company’s approval process and had their apps delayed or removed altogether. The popular messaging app Telegram is just the latest, according to the company’s CEO Pavel Durov. On August 10th, Durov posted a message to his Telegram channel saying the app’s latest update had been stuck in Apple’s review process for two weeks without any real word from the company about why it was held up.
As noted by The Verge, the update was finally released yesterday, and Durov again took to Telegram to discuss what happened. The CEO says that Apple told Telegram that it would have to remove a new feature called Telemoji, which Durov described as “higher quality vector-animated versions of the standard emoji.” He included a preview of what they would look like in his post — they’re similar to the basic emoji set Apple uses, but with some pretty delightful animations that certainly could help make messaging a little more expressive.
“This is a puzzling move on Apple’s behalf, because Telemoji would have brought an entire new dimension to its static low-resolution emoji and would have significantly enriched their ecosystem,” Durov wrote in his post. It’s not entirely clear how this feature would enrich Apple’s overall ecosystem, but it still seems like quite the puzzling thing for Apple to get caught up over, especially since Telegram already has a host of emoji and sticker options that go far beyond the default set found in iOS. Indeed, Durov noted that there are more than 10 new emoji packs in the latest Telegram update, and said the company will take the time to make Telemoji “even more unique and recognizable.”
There are still a lot of emoji-related improvements in the latest Telegram update, though. The company says it is launching an “open emoji platform” where anyone can upload their own set of emoji that people who pay for Telegram’s premium service can use. If you’re not a premium user, you’ll still be able to see the customized emoji and test using them in “saved messages” like reminders and notes in the app. The custom emoji can be interactive as well — if you tap on them, you’ll get a full-screen animated reaction.
To make it easier to access all this, the sticker, GIF and emoji panel has been redesigned, with tabs for each of those reaction categories. This makes the iOS keyboard match up with the Android app as well as the web version of Telegram. There are also new privacy settings that let you control who can send you video and voice messages: everyone, contacts or no one. Telegram notes that, like its other privacy settings, you can set “exceptions” so that specific groups or people can “always” or “never” send you voice or video messages. The new update — sans Telemoji — is available now.
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