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PlanB Admits $98,000 November Bitcoin Price Target ‘First Miss’

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PlanB Admits $98,000 November Bitcoin Price Target ‘First Miss’

Some investors reacted angrily after PlanB admitted that his model failed to accurately predict the price of bitcoin (BTC) for November.

The popular crypto analyst aimed for a $98,000 BTC price for the end of this month. Just last week, he insisted the price target was still possible, even as markets declined.

PlanB correctly predicted BTC reaching $47,000 in August and $43,000 in September. He slightly missed the $63,000 target for October, but said the three percent “rounding error was close enough for me.”

Now the pseudonymous Dutch investor says that his $98,000 prediction for this month “will probably be a first miss,” according to a tweet posted on Nov 25. He did not give an exact reason for the failure.

“I see this miss as an outlier, a black swan, that has not occured in the data last 10 years,” he explained.

He spoke as the price of bitcoin tanked to $55,300 on Nov 23, down 20% from its record high of $69,000 reached on Nov 10. Some analysts are blaming the decline on fears of the impending Mt. Gox BTC repayments.

Bitcoin ‘stock-to-flow model still on track to $100,000’

PlanB, who claims 25 years of financial markets experience, is famed for creating the stock-to-flow (S2F) price prediction model. The model is based on the ratio of the current supply (stock) of an asset or commodity to its annual production (flow).

It can be applied to any asset with limited supply really, and the Dutch analyst did so with bitcoin in 2019. The idea is that since the bitcoin supply diminishes with every “halving” event every four years, it will create boom and bust cycles. He then uses these cycles to forecast prices.

PlanB explained that the missed November target relates only to the “floor model,” one of his three price prediction tools. Unlike the S2F, the so-called floor model relies on price and on-chain data, he says.

He insisted the stock-to-flow model had not been “affected and indeed [was] on track towards $100,000.”

Justin Stagner put the miss into perspective. “[It is] not like you just barely missed it either. I mean, its looking like you really blew this one,” he stated.

Mounting criticism

Some investors reacted angrily to PlanB’s admission of failure, blaming the crypto analyst for their financial losses.

“I used my student loans along with a short term loan using my house as collateral to go all in at $68k because you told me it would reach $98k. Now I’ll be homeless and without a degree…” complained Twitter user Brett Lethbridge.

Another lamented: “Now your stock-to-flow model is not reliable anymore. Most people incurred great losses because of your prediction.”

However, several other people replying defended PlanB, and even thanked him for his predictions. Often, they defaulted to a familiar refrain, a disclaimer of sorts, that his forecasts are “not financial advice. Do your own research.”

PlanB himself averred:

It is indeed absurd that when you publish information for free, somehow people make you responsible for their investment decisions and actions. Everybody is responsible for their own (investment) decisions and actions. Blaming others is a sign of immaturity: NGMI (not going to make it).

The Dutch analyst has faced criticism before. He’s often accused of adjusting his price predictions lower once it becomes clear that the S2F would miss its target, and be invalidated.

Disclaimer

All the information contained on our website is published in good faith and for general information purposes only. Any action the reader takes upon the information found on our website is strictly at their own risk.

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Bitcoin (BTC) RSI and MACD Generate Bullish Divergences Near $40,000 Support

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Bitcoin (BTC) RSI and MACD Generate Bullish Divergences Near $40,000 Support

Bitcoin (BTC) indicators are showing several short-term bullish signals above a strong support level, making a breakout above resistance a likely scenario.

Since Jan 8, BTC has been trading slightly above the $41,500 mark. Despite slipping to a local low of $39,650 on Jan 10, it bounced immediately and created a very long lower wick. This shows a great deal of buying pressure at this level.

More importantly, both the RSI and MACD have generated significant bullish divergences (green lines). These divergences normally present before significant upward movements. 

If an upward move transpires, it’s likely to be met by resistance around $50,930. This target is both the 0.382 Fib retracement resistance level and part of a horizontal resistance area.

Short-term BTC movement

The six-hour chart shows that BTC has broken out from a descending resistance line and validated it as support after (green icon). 

After a brief rebound, BTC created a slightly lower low on Jan 19. This served to validate the $41,200 area as minor support. 

BTC is also following another descending resistance line (dashed) in the shorter term. A breakout above it would likely take the price to $45,850. This target is the minor 0.5 Fib retracement resistance level and a horizontal resistance area.

Finally, the two-hour chart shows that BTC is potentially trading inside a descending wedge, which is considered a bullish pattern. Currently, it’s approaching the end of this pattern which has been in place since Jan 13. 

Similar to the daily time frame, the RSI has generated a considerable bullish divergence, supporting the possibility of a breakout.

So, when taking into account the ample support just below the price and numerous bullish divergences, an eventual breakout seems like the most likely scenario. 

This is also in line with the short-term wave count.

For BeInCrypto’s previous Bitcoin (BTC) analysis, click here.

Disclaimer

All the information contained on our website is published in good faith and for general information purposes only. Any action the reader takes upon the information found on our website is strictly at their own risk.

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Singapore crypto ATMs shut down after central bank crackdown

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Singapore crypto ATMs shut down after central bank crackdown

The move is part of a broader effort by the Singaporean watchdog to regulate advertising cryptocurrency to the public.

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Singapore crypto ATMs shut down after central bank crackdown

The Monetary Authority of Singapore has reportedly decided to shut down cryptocurrency automatic teller machines in the city-state.

According to Bloomberg, to comply with new regulations issued by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), Singapore’s central bank, cryptocurrency ATM operators in the country were forced to shut down their operations on Tuesday.

The new clampdown on cryptocurrency ATMs sparked several reactions from the city’s cryptocurrency operators, with Daenerys & Co saying it was “surprised” and canceling its ATM service on Tuesday evening. Its main competitor, Deodi, switched off its ATM network and sent staff to remove its crypto ATMs.

The move is part of a broader effort by the Singaporean watchdog to regulate advertising cryptocurrency to the public. On Monday, the central bank released new guidance that bans crypto firms from advertising their services in public places, websites and social networks.

Singapore’s souring on crypto, however, is more of a surprise. Coincub, a fintech startup based in the city-state, named Singapore the most crypto-friendly country in the world in December, owing to the city’s “good legislative environment” and “high rate of cryptocurrency adoption.” However, the legislative climate in the city-state appears to be cloudier right now.

Related: UK advertiser ASA continues crypto ad banning spree

Cointelegraph reached out to the MAS for more information but did not receive a response as of publishing time. This article will be updated if new details emerge.

The clampdown in Singapore came soon after similar advertising limitations were enacted in Spain and the United Kingdom. On Monday, the Spanish government required crypto businesses to submit ad campaigns for regulatory approval 10 days in advance, while the U.K. launched a review of cryptocurrency advertising norms, vowing to crack down on products with deceptive claims.

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Turkish ruling party holds meeting in metaverse, talks crypto regulation

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Turkish ruling party holds meeting in metaverse, talks crypto regulation

Turkey’s governing political party has discussed the upcoming crypto regulation in its first metaverse meeting.

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Turkish ruling party holds meeting in metaverse, talks crypto regulation

Ak Party, Turkey’s governing party, held its first metaverse meeting on Monday wherein it discussed upcoming crypto regulation. 

The Grand National Assembly of Turkey (TBMM) hosted its first meeting in the metaverse, Cointelegraph Turkey reported. Attending the virtual meeting were TBMM group deputy chairmen Mahir Ünal and Mustafa Elitaş along with Ömer İleri, the vice president of Ak Party responsible for information and communication technologies.

Physically, Elitaş attended the meeting from the parliament building, while Ünal and İleri were at the Ak Party (AKP) headquarters. Crypto regulation was the highlight of the meeting, Ünal told state-run news agency AA, adding that crypto assets require both financial and legal regulations.

Elitaş, who recently hosted a meeting with representatives from the Turkish crypto ecosystem at TBMM, stressed that it’s impossible to stay out of the virtual world. “I believe that metaverse-based meetings would be improved expeditiously and become an essential part of our lives,” he added.

Elitaş is also expected to meet with Binance Turkey on Thursday. As reported before, Binance Turkey was fined 8 million Turkish lira (about $600,000) after failing an audit for monitoring Anti-Money Laundering compliance.

As blockchain technology made digital ownership possible, Turkey has sped up its metaverse efforts, Öİleri said. Seeing the metaverse as a nascent yet quickly developing field, he predicted that it could impact many industries in the future.

Ak Parti olarak #Metaverse üzerinden ilk toplantımızı gerçekleştirdik. pic.twitter.com/19Xfd6sIWR

— AK Parti Bilgi İletişim Teknolojileri (@AKbilgitek) January 17, 2022

The metaverse is open for development in virtual reality, product management and innovative business models, İleri noted, adding that AKP wants to pave the way for a metaverse ecosystem.

Related: Turkey’s crypto law is ready for parliament, President Erdoğan confirms

İleri argued that digital and technological advancements have legal, economic and social aspects. The AKP is striving to develop policies regarding crypto assets and social media to protect the citizens while empowering Turkey’s innovation capabilities, he concluded.

While the Turkish government is keen on blockchain technology and a central bank digital currency, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is known for his stern stance against cryptocurrencies. Last year in a public Q&A session, he “declared war” on crypto, saying, “We have absolutely no intention of embracing cryptocurrencies.”

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