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Price analysis 10/15: BTC, ETH, BNB, ADA, XRP, SOL, DOT, DOGE, LUNA, UNI

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Price analysis 10/15: BTC, ETH, BNB, ADA, XRP, SOL, DOT, DOGE, LUNA, UNI

Bitcoin (BTC) rose within a few steps of $63,000 today for the first time since April 18. The recent surge in the price may have been caused after various documents pointed to the eventual approval of a futures-based BTC ETF by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. According to these documents, the regulator may be close to green lighting the application to list Valkyrie’s Bitcoin Strategy exchange-traded fund ETF for listing on Nasdaq. 

Analysts pointed out that gold’s price had risen sharply leading up to the launch of the first U.S.-based gold ETF in 2004. Thereafter, the rally continued and gold’s price rose more than 300% since the ETF was approved, before forming a major top. The similarity between gold and Bitcoin being stores of value appear to have generated huge excitement for the launch of a Bitcoin ETF.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

Traders seem to have aggressively accumulated Bitcoin before the announcement of a Bitcoin ETF. The Bitcoin futures open interest in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange hit a new all-time high on Oct. 14, surpassing the previous high of $3.02 billion made on April 14.

Could Bitcoin break above the all-time high and continue its northward journey and will altcoins also join the party? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin formed a Doji candlestick pattern on Oct. 14, indicating indecision among the bulls and the bears above the $58,000 level. This uncertainty resolved to the upside today and the rally has resumed.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The 20-day exponential moving average ($52,868) is sloping up and the relative strength index (RSI) is in the overbought zone, suggesting that bulls are in control. However, the all-time high at $64,854 may prove to be a difficult hurdle to cross.

If the BTC/USDT pair turns down from this resistance, the first support to watch on the downside is the 20-day EMA. A strong rebound off this support will suggest that sentiment remains positive and traders are buying the dips.

That will increase the possibility of the resumption of the uptrend with the target at $75,000. The first sign of weakness will be a break and close below the 20-day EMA, which could result in a decline to the 50-day simple moving average ($48,514).

ETH/USDT

Ether (ETH) bounced off the 20-day EMA ($3,479) on Oct. 13 and broke above the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders (H&S) pattern on Oct. 14. This completed the bullish setup which has a target objective at $4,657.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Both moving averages are sloping up and the RSI has broken above the downtrend line, suggesting that bulls are back in control. The ETH/USDT pair could now rally to $4,027.88 and then retest the all-time high at $4,372.72.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the current level or the overhead resistance and breaks below the neckline, it will suggest that bears continue to sell on rallies. The pair could then drop to the moving averages. A break and close below $3,257 will indicate that bulls may be losing their grip.

BNB/USDT

Binance Coin (BNB) broke and closed above the neckline on Oct. 13, completing an inverse H&S pattern. This bullish setup has a pattern target at $554.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears attempted to pull the price back below the breakout level but the long tail on the day’s candlestick indicates buying at lower levels. The moving averages have completed a bullish crossover and the RSI is in the positive zone, indicating that bulls have the upper hand.

If the price rises from the current level and breaks above $518.90, it will signal the resumption of the uptrend. The bears will have to pull and sustain the BNB/USDT pair below the moving averages to weaken the bullish momentum.

ADA/USDT

The bulls are attempting to push Cardano (ADA) back into the symmetrical triangle pattern but the bears are not relenting. They are defending the support line and the 20-day EMA ($2.21) with vigor.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the price turns down from the current level and breaks below $2.07, the ADA/USDT pair could drop to $2 and next to $1.87. A breach below this important level may pull the pair down to the pattern target of $1.63

Alternatively, if bulls push and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA, the pair could rise to the resistance line of the triangle. A breakout and close above the triangle could clear the path for a rally to $2.47, followed by a move to $2.80.

XRP/USDT

XRP has been holding above the 20-day EMA ($1.08) for the past few days but the bulls have not been able to push the price to the overhead resistance at $1.24. This suggests a shortage of demand at higher levels.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, the XRP/USDT pair could drop to $1. This level could again attract buyers but if they fail to push the price above $1.24, the bearish momentum could pick up and the slide could deepen to $0.85.

Conversely, if the price rises from the current level and breaks above $1.24, it will signal that the selling pressure may be easing. The pair could then rise to $1.41 and if bulls clear this barrier, the next stop could be $1.66.

SOL/USDT

The failure of the bears to sink Solana (SOL) below the 50-day SMA ($147) in the past few days indicates accumulation by the bulls. The buyers are currently attempting to sustain the price above the downtrend line.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If they succeed, the SOL/USDT pair could rise to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $177.80. This level may act as stiff resistance but if bulls overcome this hurdle, the pair may rally to $200 and then retest the all-time high at $216.

The first sign of weakness will be a break and close below the 50-day SMA. That could pull the price down to $116. This is an important level to keep an eye on because a break below it could intensify the selling.

DOT/USDT

Polkadot (DOT) skyrocketed and closed above the $38.77 overhead resistance on Oct. 13, suggesting that the consolidation has resolved in favor of the bulls.

DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears tried to pull the price back below $38.77 on Oct. 14 and today but failed. This shows that buyers are aggressively defending the breakout level. If bulls drive the price above $43.22, the DOT/USDT pair could retest the all-time high at $49.78.

If the price turns down from the current level and breaks below $38.77, the pair could drop to the 20-day EMA ($34.84). A strong bounce off this support will suggest that sentiment remains positive and traders are buying on dips.

Alternatively, if bears sink the price below the moving averages, the pair could drop to $25.50. Such a move will suggest that the breakout above $38.77 may have been a bull trap.

Related: CFTC slaps Tether and Bitfinex with a combined $42.5 million fine

DOGE/USDT

The bulls are struggling to sustain Dogecoin (DOGE) above the 20-day EMA ($0.23), which suggests that buying dries up at higher levels. A minor positive is that bulls have not allowed the price to sustain below $0.22.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The 20-day EMA has flattened out and the RSI is just above the midpoint, suggesting a balance between supply and demand. This equilibrium will tilt in favor of the bears if the $0.21 support cracks. That may result in a decline to $0.19.

If the price turns up from the current level, the bulls will try to push the price to the downtrend line. A breakout and close above this level will suggest that the decline could be over. The DOGE/USDT pair may next rise to $0.32 and then to $0.35.

LUNA/USDT

Terra protocol’s LUNA token is finding support at the 50-day SMA ($36.24) for the past three days but the bulls have not been able to drive the price above the 20-day EMA ($38.86). This suggests that demand dries up at higher levels.

LUNA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The 20-day EMA is sloping down marginally and the RSI is just below the midpoint, indicating a minor advantage to bears. A break and close below the 50-day SMA could pull the price down to $32.50 and if this support cracks, the correction could deepen to $25.

Conversely, if bulls drive the price above the 20-day EMA, the LUNA/USDT pair could pick up momentum and advance to $45.01 where bears may again try to mount a stiff resistance. A retest of the all-time high at $49.54 is likely if bulls overcome this obstacle.

UNI/USDT

Uniswap (UNI) rose above the moving averages on Oct. 13 and reached the neckline of the inverse H&S pattern on Oct. 14. The bears are currently attempting to stall the recovery at the neckline.

UNI/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The moving averages are on the verge of a bullish crossover and the RSI has climbed into the positive territory, indicating that bulls have the upper hand. If the price rebounds off the moving averages, the bulls will make one more attempt to propel the UNI/USDT pair above the neckline.

If they succeed, it will complete the inverse H&S setup, starting a possible rally to $31.41 and later to the pattern target at $36.98. This bullish view will invalidate if the price continues lower and breaks below $22. The pair could then drop to the strong support at $18.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.

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PlanB Admits $98,000 November Bitcoin Price Target ‘First Miss’

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PlanB Admits $98,000 November Bitcoin Price Target ‘First Miss’

Some investors reacted angrily after PlanB admitted that his model failed to accurately predict the price of bitcoin (BTC) for November.

The popular crypto analyst aimed for a $98,000 BTC price for the end of this month. Just last week, he insisted the price target was still possible, even as markets declined.

PlanB correctly predicted BTC reaching $47,000 in August and $43,000 in September. He slightly missed the $63,000 target for October, but said the three percent “rounding error was close enough for me.”

Now the pseudonymous Dutch investor says that his $98,000 prediction for this month “will probably be a first miss,” according to a tweet posted on Nov 25. He did not give an exact reason for the failure.

“I see this miss as an outlier, a black swan, that has not occured in the data last 10 years,” he explained.

He spoke as the price of bitcoin tanked to $55,300 on Nov 23, down 20% from its record high of $69,000 reached on Nov 10. Some analysts are blaming the decline on fears of the impending Mt. Gox BTC repayments.

Bitcoin ‘stock-to-flow model still on track to $100,000’

PlanB, who claims 25 years of financial markets experience, is famed for creating the stock-to-flow (S2F) price prediction model. The model is based on the ratio of the current supply (stock) of an asset or commodity to its annual production (flow).

It can be applied to any asset with limited supply really, and the Dutch analyst did so with bitcoin in 2019. The idea is that since the bitcoin supply diminishes with every “halving” event every four years, it will create boom and bust cycles. He then uses these cycles to forecast prices.

PlanB explained that the missed November target relates only to the “floor model,” one of his three price prediction tools. Unlike the S2F, the so-called floor model relies on price and on-chain data, he says.

He insisted the stock-to-flow model had not been “affected and indeed [was] on track towards $100,000.”

Justin Stagner put the miss into perspective. “[It is] not like you just barely missed it either. I mean, its looking like you really blew this one,” he stated.

Mounting criticism

Some investors reacted angrily to PlanB’s admission of failure, blaming the crypto analyst for their financial losses.

“I used my student loans along with a short term loan using my house as collateral to go all in at $68k because you told me it would reach $98k. Now I’ll be homeless and without a degree…” complained Twitter user Brett Lethbridge.

Another lamented: “Now your stock-to-flow model is not reliable anymore. Most people incurred great losses because of your prediction.”

However, several other people replying defended PlanB, and even thanked him for his predictions. Often, they defaulted to a familiar refrain, a disclaimer of sorts, that his forecasts are “not financial advice. Do your own research.”

PlanB himself averred:

It is indeed absurd that when you publish information for free, somehow people make you responsible for their investment decisions and actions. Everybody is responsible for their own (investment) decisions and actions. Blaming others is a sign of immaturity: NGMI (not going to make it).

The Dutch analyst has faced criticism before. He’s often accused of adjusting his price predictions lower once it becomes clear that the S2F would miss its target, and be invalidated.

Disclaimer

All the information contained on our website is published in good faith and for general information purposes only. Any action the reader takes upon the information found on our website is strictly at their own risk.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Falls Below $56,000 After Failure to Sustain Rebound Rally

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Bitcoin (BTC) Falls Below $56,000 After Failure to Sustain Rebound Rally

After initiating a bounce on Nov 25, Bitcoin (BTC) decreased considerably the next day and is back at its weekly lows.

Since Nov 19, BTC had been hovering above the $56,500 support. This is both a horizontal support area and the 0.382 Fib retracement support level.

Yesterday, technical indicators started to show some bullish signs.

After 15 successive lower momentum bars, the MACD finally created one higher (green icon). This was a sign that the short-term trend is gradually picking steam. 

Furthermore, the RSI generated a bullish divergence (green line). This is a bullish occurrence in which a price decrease is not accompanied by the same increase in selling momentum.

However, BTC reversed its trend on Nov 26 and is in the process of creating a bearish engulfing candlestick (red icon). This is a type of bearish candlestick in which the entire previous day’s increase is negated the next day. There are still more than 15 hours until the daily close, but the start of the day looks extremely bearish.

If a breakdown were to occur, the next support area would be found at $53,250.

Short-term BTC movement

The six-hour chart shows that BTC has been decreasing under a descending resistance line since Nov 19. This is a sign that BTC is correcting.

Furthermore, BTC created a lower high relative to the price on Nov 20. This is considered a bearish sign since it didn’t have enough strength to reach its previous highs.

The even shorter-term two-hour chart shows that BTC is trading inside a symmetrical triangle and is very close to its support line, which coincides with the $56,500 horizontal support area. 

Therefore, a breakdown from it would likely accelerate the drop.

Wave count

The wave count suggests that BTC is in the C wave (red) of an A-B-C corrective structure. This means that after the correction is complete, the upward movement is expected to resume. 

The sub-wave count is shown in pink. It shows that BTC is in wave five of the correction, which is the final phase. 

There is a considerable Fib confluence between $53,250-$53,800, created by: 

  • Length of sub-wave one (pink)
  • External retracement of sub-wave four (white)
  • Length of wave A (red)

These levels also coincide with the long-term Fib support outlined in the first section. Therefore, BTC is expected to reach a low in this area before reversing.

For BeInCrypto’s previous Bitcoin (BTC) analysis, click here.

Disclaimer

All the information contained on our website is published in good faith and for general information purposes only. Any action the reader takes upon the information found on our website is strictly at their own risk.

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South Korea Crypto P2P Trading Hits New Highs as Regulators Debate Taxation

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South Korea Crypto P2P Trading Hits New Highs as Regulators Debate Taxation

P2P crypto trading has hit a new all-time high in South Korea, data from LocalBitcoins shows. The jump in P2P trading comes at a time when there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding regulation in the country.

Peer-to-peer trading of cryptocurrencies in South Korea is hitting all-time highs as regulators offer some ambivalent comments on regulation. Data from LocalBitcoins shows that over 353 million in Korean Won was traded in the first week of November. This is a significant jump from previous weekly volumes.

South Korean P2P trading volume: Coin Dance

Pondering crypto tax

The increased interest in P2P trading comes as regulators are working on implementing a regulatory framework. South Korea, already one of the leading governments when it comes to cryptocurrency market regulation, is doubling down on its bid to prevent any illicit activity.

The high P2P volume may be a result of investors seeking to make the most of their capital as regulators bear down. Recent reports have indicated that there is some confusion among investors because of the lack of clarity surrounding regulation.

One of the primary issues is the implementation of crypto taxation. South Korea officials announced that it would tax the asset class, to the tune of 20%.

But lately, reports have suggested that there could be a change or complete repeal to this taxation scheme. The taxation law will come into effect in 2022, though it remains unclear about what specific form it will take.

NFT regulation is also throwing more confusion into the mix, as the Financial Services Commission (FSC) said in early November that it would not subject the special asset to taxation. However, later, the Vice Chairman of the organization said that tax provisions would be made for NFTs.

Uncertainty still looms

At the moment, it’s uncertain exactly what the regulatory landscape in South Korea will look like, given the lack of conclusion so far. The South Korean opposition party challenged the taxation scheme and pushed for a delay to 2023, demanding a more generous tax plan.

Exchanges are one of the major elements of the industry under the microscope, with 2021 seeing the first regulatory compliance certifications being sent to them. Several exchanges have had to shut down following regulatory scrutiny.

As it stands, it’s unclear what the specifics of crypto regulation will be. However, it’s almost certain that there will be a framework implemented, and whether or not it is stricter than investors like remains to be seen.

Disclaimer

All the information contained on our website is published in good faith and for general information purposes only. Any action the reader takes upon the information found on our website is strictly at their own risk.

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