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Price analysis 12/31: BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, ADA, XRP, LUNA, AVAX, DOT, DOGE

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Price analysis 12/31: BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, ADA, XRP, LUNA, AVAX, DOT, DOGE

Bitcoin (BTC) and most major altcoins are attempting a rebound off their respective support levels, indicating that buyers continue to accumulate on dips.

Data from Coinglass shows that 9,925 Bitcoin left Coinbase Pro, the professional trading arm of Coinbase, on Dec. 30, a possible sign of institutional buying. This is in sharp contrast to the strong inflows seen in Binance and OKEx. Several analysts believe that institutional buying could pick up in January.

Economist and trader Alex Krüger expects a Bitcoin rally in early January based on fund flows. He also highlighted that January has produced positive results for Bitcoin between 2018 and 2021, with gains ranging from 7% to 36%.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

While investors debate about the next possible direction of the crypto markets, MicroStrategy has continued to accumulate Bitcoin on dips. The business intelligence firm purchased 1,914 Bitcoin between Dec. 9 and Dec. 29, according to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The recent purchase has boosted the company’s holdings to 124,391 Bitcoin.

Could Bitcoin lead a strong recovery in the crypto markets in the new year? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin bounced off the $45,456 support and has risen above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) ($47,826). However, the bulls are likely to face a strong challenge at the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($49,096).

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the price turns down from the current level or the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that bears are selling on every minor rally. That will increase the possibility of a break below $45,456. If that happens, the BTC/USDT pair could drop to the strong support zone at $42,000 to $40,000.

The relative strength index (RSI) is forming a possible positive divergence, which suggests that the selling pressure could be reducing.

If bulls drive the price above the 20-day EMA, the pair could rally to $51,936.33. A break and close above this resistance could start an up-move to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $55,000 and then to the 61.8% retracement level at $58,686.

ETH/USDT

Ether (ETH) has bounced off the strong support zone at $3,643.73 to $3,503.68. The bulls will now try to push the price to the 20-day EMA ($3,952), which is an important level to watch out for.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies. The bears will then make another attempt to sink the price below the support zone.

A break and close below the 200-day SMA ($3,365) may indicate the start of a deeper correction to $2,800. This negative view will be negated if the price breaks and sustains above $4,200. The ETH/USDT pair could then rise to $4,488 and later to $4,868.

BNB/USDT

Binance Coin (BNB) is attempting a bounce off the strong support at $500. The recovery is likely to face selling at the 20-day EMA ($540). If the price turns down from this level, it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The downsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI in the negative territory indicate that bears are in command. A break and close below $500 could intensify selling and the BNB/USDT pair could drop to the 200-day SMA ($445).

Contrary to this assumption, if the price rises above the 20-day EMA, the bulls will try to push the pair above $575. If they succeed, the pair could rally to $617 and later to the overhead resistance zone at $669.30 to $691.80.

SOL/USDT

Solana (SOL) is attempting to bounce off $167.88. The relief rally is likely to face strong selling at the 20-day EMA ($182). The RSI is in the negative zone and the 20-day EMA is sloping down gradually, indicating that bears are at an advantage.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the price turns down and dips below the $167.88 support, the SOL/USDT pair could drop to $148.04. The bulls may try to defend this level but if the support gives way, the pair could start its downward journey toward the 200-day SMA ($128).

This negative view will invalidate if bulls push the price above the 20-day EMA and the overhead resistance at $204.75. The pair could then rise to the resistance line of the falling wedge pattern. A break and close above this level could clear the path for a retest of the all-time high at $259.90.

ADA/USDT

Cardano (ADA) broke and closed below the 20-day EMA ($1.38) on Dec. 29 but the buyers have not yet given up. They are attempting to push the price back above the 20-day EMA.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If they succeed, the ADA/USDT pair could rise to the resistance line of the descending channel. The bears are likely to defend this level aggressively. If the price turns down from the resistance line, the pair could extend its stay inside the channel for a few more days.

A break and close above the channel will be the first indication of a possible change in trend. Conversely, if the price turns down from the current level, the pair could drop to $1.18. This is an important level to watch out for because if it cracks, the pair could drop to $1.

XRP/USDT

Ripple (XRP) is range-bound between $1 and $0.75. The price bounced off $0.80 on Dec. 30 and the bulls will now attempt to push the price back above the 20-day EMA ($0.88).

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If they do that, the XRP/USDT pair could rise to the 200-day SMA ($0.94) and then to the overhead resistance at $1. The bulls will have to push and sustain the price above this resistance to signal the start of a sustained recovery.

The 20-day EMA is turning down and the RSI is below 45, indicating that bears have the upper hand. If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, the bears will try to sink the pair below $0.75. A close below this level could clear the path for a decline to $0.60.

LUNA/USDT

Terra’s LUNA token bounced off the 20-day EMA ($81) on Dec. 30, indicating that the sentiment remains positive and traders are buying on dips.

LUNA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls will now attempt to push the price to the all-time high at $103.60. A break and close above this resistance will signal the start of the next leg of the uptrend that could reach $135.26 and then $150.

On the other hand, if the price turns down from $93.81 and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that traders are closing their positions on rallies. The LUNA/USDT pair could then drop to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $71.61.

Related: Frax Share, Swipe and Gnosis lead the altcoin market as Bitcoin recovers to $47.5k

AVAX/USDT

Avalanche (AVAX) bounced off the minor support at $98 on Dec. 30 and the bulls are now attempting to push the price above the 20-day EMA ($107).

AVAX/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If they succeed, the AVAX/USDT pair could rise to the downtrend line where the bears may mount stiff resistance. A break and close above this level will be the first sign that the correction may be over.

The pair could then rise to $128. If bulls thrust the price above this resistance, it will complete a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern. The pair could first retest the all-time high at $147 and then attempt a rally to the pattern target at $177.50.

On the contrary, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA and breaks below $98, the pair could drop to $75.50.

DOT/USDT

Polkadot (DOT) broke below the 20-day EMA ($28) on Dec. 28 and the bears have successfully warded off attempts by the bulls to push the price back above the moving averages.

DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the price turns down from the current level, the bears will try to sink the DOT/USDT pair below the $25 to $22.66 support zone. If that happens, the selling could pick up momentum and the decline could extend to $16.81.

Alternatively, if the price rises above the moving averages, the buyers will try to propel the pair above $31.49. If they manage to do that, it could open the doors for a possible rally to $39.50 and later to $43.56.

DOGE/USDT

Dogecoin (DOGE) broke below the 20-day EMA ($0.17) on Dec. 28 but the bears could not challenge the major support at $0.15. This suggests that selling dries up at lower levels.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls are attempting to push the price back above the 20-day EMA. If they manage to do that, the DOGE/USDT pair could rally to the overhead resistance at $0.19. A break and close above this level will signal the possible start of a new up-move that could reach the 200-day SMA ($0.23).

Conversely, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, the bears will attempt to sink the pair below $0.15. This is an important level for the bulls to defend because if it cracks, the pair could plunge to $0.13 and eventually to the psychological support at $0.10.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.

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Wait, what? Former Bitcoin bull Raoul Pal only owns one Bitcoin?

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Wait, what? Former Bitcoin bull Raoul Pal only owns one Bitcoin?

Former Goldman Sachs hedge fund manager and cryptocurrency bull Raoul Pal claimed in a tweet that he now only owns a single Bitcoin.

As the claim was made in the heat of a Twitter fight with self-proclaimed “Bitcoin Strategist” Greg Foss it’s not entirely clear whether it’s an exaggeration or an accurate statement about his holdings. Pal is the founder and CEO of Real Vision and Global Macro while Foss is an executive director at Validus Power Corp.

The revelation of his apparently small holding certainly caused uproar and angst among Bitcoin true believers, who’ve looked at Pal askance ever since he started calling Ethereum “the greatest trade” and predicted that ETH and altcoins will eventually outperform BTC.

Fascinating to see that since inception ETH has outperformed BTC by 250%. It only fell below its initial price in BTC for the first 5 months of its existence in 2015.

Let that put rest to the idea that all other tokens trend towards zero in BTC terms. pic.twitter.com/ulCpsjG8up

— Raoul Pal (@RaoulGMI) April 7, 2021

Pal first purchased BTC in Nov 2013. He sold for a 10X profit in the so-called “fork-wars” of 2017 (missing out on an even bigger gain later that year) before adding to his collection in 2019 through 2020. In May 2021, he confirmed that he owned more ETH than BTC. At time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) is worth $40,925.

The barney was instigated by Foss, who tweeted “Raoul is soft” followed by another intellectual tweet, “Raoul sucks and blows” shortly after. After some back and forth between Pal and the Bitcoin maxi, Pal posted that people like Foss and the Bitcoin community’s exclusionary ideology are why he only holds one Bitcoin.

And that is your issue. I don’t share your philosophy, so you attack me? Really? This is why I hold only one bitcoin, the community has lost sight of inclusion and you sir, are helping reduce the network effects by excluding people who dont share your view from the network.

— Raoul Pal (@RaoulGMI) January 20, 2022

This upset the Bitcoiner community, many who claimed he had let emotion cloud logic. “His feelings are hurting his future,” commented one user Emanuel in a reply to Bitcoin Meme Hub tweet. “I knew when he started to sip Vitalik’s coolaid he was a goner,” added another user, Jalan Foster.

The founder of Synaptic Ventures Marc van der Chijs complained that the fact Pal only owns one BTC based on the makeup of the community and not on the potential return “goes totally against the gospel he preaches on RealVision.”

However, some defended Pal, pointing to his impressive track record and reminding followers that he is in fact a trader, not a holder. Crypto analyst and founder of Crypto My Way “Coach T” wrote that he appreciates Pal’s “diverse views and intelligent thinking.”

Foss vs. Pal: a Twitter feud

It appears that the argument was in response to a disagreement on Pal’s stance on inflation and bonds as a trading vehicle. Foss explained that he didn’t support Pal promoting his trading strategy to others who don’t entirely understand how it works.

Pal disagreed, explaining that his views on bonds are “a trade, not a philosophy.” Despite this, in a following comment on the thread, Pal claimed that he doesn’t own any bonds.

Ok, lets do math. If Im right and bonds can rally 20% in 12 months (just use TLT) that is faster than the balance sheet expansion, thus its a net win to your purchasing power. If you hold bonds to maturity you lose. Issue?

— Raoul Pal (@RaoulGMI) January 20, 2022

Three hours after posting the original tweet attacking Pal, the argument eventually culminated in Foss tweeting an apology saying that he “regrets his actions,” adding that he “made a rookie error” and that he has “bigger battles to fight.”

Related: Raoul Pal says ‘reasonable chance’ crypto market cap could 100x by 2030

Just weeks ago, Pal said that he believes there is a “reasonable chance” that the crypto market capitalization will increase 100 times by the end of this decade. Hoping he’s right about that is perhaps something on which we can all agree.

Cointelegraph reached out to Raoul Pal via Real Vision and will update the story with any response.

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Multichain hacker returns 322 ETH, keeps hefty finders fee

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Multichain hacker returns 322 ETH, keeps hefty finders fee

Owing to a security vulnerability in six tokens, Multichain users lost more than $3M over the week. A white hat hacker returned 322 ETH, but in excess of 527 ETH is still exploited.

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Multichain hacker returns 322 ETH, keeps hefty finders fee

In a dramatic twist, one of this week’s Multichain hackers has returned 322 ETH ($974,000 at the time of writing) to the cross-chain router protocol and one of the affected users.

However the hacker kept 62 ETH ($187,000) as a “bug bounty”, and a total of 528 ETH (worth $1.6M) remains outstanding after the exploits.

Earlier this week, news emerged of a security vulnerability with Multichain relating to the tokens WETH, PERI, OMT, WBNB, MATIC, and AVAX, and $1.43 million was stolen. Multichain announced on Jan. 17 the critical vulnerability had been “reported and fixed.”

However, publicity about the vulnerability reportedly encouraged a number of different attackers to swoop in, and more than $3 million in funds were stolen. The critical vulnerability in the six tokens still exists, but Multichain has drained around $44.5m of funds from multiple chain bridges to protect them.

Yeah, bridge contract need pause function. https://t.co/lPjLsE5EtR

— Zhaojun (@zhaojun_sh) January 20, 2022

One of the hackers, calling himself a “white hat” has been in communication with both Multichain and a user who lost $960,000 in the past day or so, to negotiate returning 80% of the money in return for a hefty finders fee.

According to a Jan. 20 tweet from ZenGo wallet co-founder Tal Be’ery, the hacker claimed they hadbeen “saving the rest” of the Multichain users who were being targeted by bots, in an act of defensive hacking.

The funds were returned across four transactions. On Jan. 20 the hacker returned 269 ETH ($813,000) in two transactions directly to the user he stole it from and kept a bug bounty of 50 ETH ($150,000).

The relieved user responded to the hacker:

“Well received, thank you for your honesty.”

Overnight, the hacker also returned 50 ETH ($150,000) across two transactions to the official Multichain address, and kept a bug bounty of 12 ETH ($36,000).

Related: Multichain asks users to revoke approvals amid ‘critical vulnerability’

Multichain (formerly Anyswap) aims to be the “ultimate router for Web3.” The platform supports 30 chains at the moment, including Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Avalanche (AVAX), Litecoin (LTC), Terra (LUNA), and Fantom (FTM).

In a tweet on Jan. 20, the Co-Founder and CEO of Multichain Zhaojun conceded that Multichain bridge contracts need a pause function to deal with similar incidents in future..

Cointelegraph has contacted the project for comment.

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Australia’s plan to create a crypto competitive edge in 12 steps

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Australia’s plan to create a crypto competitive edge in 12 steps

In October 2021, the Senate Committee for Australia as a Technology and Financial Centre released its much-awaited recommendations for how cryptocurrency should be regulated. The 168-page final report boils down to 12 recommendations aimed at striking the right balance between creating legitimacy without stifling innovation. 

This is a landmark report that demonstrates Australia’s clear efforts to put itself at the forefront of crypto investment globally. The chair of the committee, Senator Andrew Bragg, believes that “Australia can be a leader in digital assets” and is confident that it can particularly “be competitive with Singapore, the UK and the US.”

Four key recommendations

First, the introduction of a range of new crypto-specific licenses and regulations. For too long, regulators around the world have been trying to put square pegs (cryptocurrency) into round holes (traditional financial regulation). This approach underestimates the fundamental differences that exist as well as the potential that digital assets have to transform the world. This report acknowledges crypto’s potential and calls for a range of bespoke cryptocurrency licenses in Australia. It recommends a specific market licensing regime for digital exchanges as well as a bespoke custody regime for digital assets. Details will still need to be fleshed out but if we get these frameworks right, then this will create the legitimacy that the sector needs to take off into the mainstream.

Second, the introduction of a decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) entity type into Australian corporate law. This recommendation is a very big deal, as it shows that the Australian government is open to decentralized finance (DeFi) as well as crypto innovation. Wyoming is the only region I have heard of that has something like this in place, so this could put Australia on the front foot. If approved, DAOs could provide a unique utility that may bring the Australian economy a decade ahead into a decentralized future. However, this will also be the hardest thing for the Committee to get approved, as changes to the Corporations Act are infamously rare in Australia. If anyone can do it, it’s Senator Bragg though.

Third, improved tax rules for crypto-to-crypto transactions. Recent Finder research shows that over 17% of Australians own cryptocurrency — the third-highest rate of adoption in the world. However, this growing group has had to grapple with tax rules that are confusing at best. Historically, crypto-to-crypto transfers have been considered a capital gain by the Australian Tax Office. The new recommendation calls for tax only when there has been “a clearly definable capital gain or loss.” Again, the devil will be in the detail on this one but active Australian crypto users could be the real winners.

Fourth, new tax incentives to encourage green crypto mining. The Committee recommends a 10% company tax discount for crypto mining businesses that use renewable energy. This looks like a smart move to support two high-growth Australian industries: renewable energy and cryptocurrency. This will be especially important as the Committee tries to get these recommendations signed off against a backdrop of COP26 and rising concerns about climate change.

Related: Crypto staking rewards and their unfair taxation in the US

Three tough issues

  • Timelines for turning recommendations into law. Right now, these are all just recommendations, and are worth as much as the political will that exists to enact them. As with other countries, politics in Australia moves slowly and this will be no different. Senator Andrew Bragg is bullish that he can get all the recommendations passed in 12 months and I back him to get it done. His cause could also be supported by a growing view that crypto innovation could be a vote-winner with young Australians in a looming federal election, as nearly a third of Generation Z already own cryptocurrency.
  • Implications for crypto businesses during the pre-reform period. If it takes a year to introduce new laws then there are still questions about what crypto businesses can do in the meantime. Many submissions called for a “safe harbor” against regulation until rules had been finalized but this was not explicitly recommended by the Committee. However, the direction of travel has been set and there is clear support for crypto innovation and an acknowledgment that new rules and licenses are needed. I would be surprised if we saw much in the way of regulatory action until then.
  • Specifics for the licensing and tax proposals. Many of these recommendations were light on detail and it looks like the Australian Treasury will now lead on these matters. The industry will be very interested to know what the requirements for being a custodian or digital exchange will be, particularly when it comes to capital requirements. If there’s too much regulatory burden, then businesses will move offshore. Likewise, consumers will need more clarity on what a “clearly definable capital gain or loss” is for tax purposes. In many ways, the work starts now.

Related: Crypto makes history in 2021: Five instances of governments embracing digital assets

Learnings for governments around the world

The crypto industry is ready to talk policy. It’s fair to say that this Select Committee was inundated with engagement from crypto businesses, academics, peak bodies and regulators. More than 100 written submissions contributed and there were three full days of public hearings. It’s not often that an industry is asking for more regulation but that is what is happening here. The crypto industry around the world wants clarity and is ready to have a conversation about policy.

Broad reviews are more effective than siloed approaches. One key reason that this consultation had so much engagement was that it looked at the digital asset industry holistically rather than from one angle only. A problem we’re seeing around the world is regulators interested in looking at crypto assets from their specific regulatory view, but broad innovation shouldn’t be assessed through such a narrow lens. This consultation managed to look at the industry holistically while still getting into the specific issues. I welcome more reviews like it around the world.

Bespoke digital asset policy approaches will be needed. Digital assets have hit critical velocity and the revolution can no longer be ignored. Piecemeal changes to legacy financial services policy will not work. We need policymakers around the world to work together to create bespoke policies that are fit-for-purpose. Coinbase captures this well in pillar one of its Digital Asset Policy Proposal (DAPP). The DAPP calls for “a new framework for how we regulate digital assets” that “will ensure that innovation can occur in ways that are not hampered by the difficulty of transitioning from our legacy market structure.” These recommendations in Australia are an attempt at doing exactly that which many can learn from.

What is clear is that the world is changing. This Senate Committee in Australia should be applauded for taking a holistic approach and recommending bespoke policy instruments. It’s time for policymakers around the world to follow suit and take a broad look at their approach to digital assets.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Fred Schebesta is an Australian-born entrepreneur and early-stage investor, founder of global fintech Finder, now worth over half a billion dollars. Fred recently launched blockchain investment fund Hive Empire Capital and co-founded Balthazar, a DAO platform for NFT gaming. With 22 years of experience in building businesses, Fred just released a Number One Amazon Best Selling book, Go Live! 10 Principles to Launch a Global Empire.

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