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The “Triple-Halving” Ethereum Merge. Is It Priced In?

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The “Triple-Halving” Ethereum Merge. Is It Priced In?

On March 11,2022 our editors covered a Reddit thread, describing reasons why the Ethereum merge is very likely to happen in June 2022. We don’t normally take Reddit threads as gospel, but this comes from an active member of the Ethereum community Superphiz.eth who has been following the upgrade much more closely than most people have. 

Feel free to read the full five reasons laid out by Superphiz on Reddit here. For the TLDR readers out there I will provide a summary for you below.

Summary of Reddit Thread

Reason 1: February 19, Eth researcher and implementation organizer Danny Ryan gave a talk to Ethdenver. So Wen? He asks and proceeds to answer the question. He continues to say, “it is really actually very close,” “the difficulty bomb is set to go on sometime in June.” 

Reason 2: On a Consensus Layer call, March 10, 2022, Danny Ryan hints that they are closely monitoring any delays and are mindful of delays.

Reason 3: The Merge Mainnet Readiness Checklist is nearing completion. The most difficult items are already complete.

Reason 4: On March 10, 2022, Marius Van Der Wijden announced the launch of the Kiln public merge testnet. Widely expected to be the final one-off testnet.  This launch was proven to be successful today on 16 March 2022.

Reason 5: The difficulty bomb is specified in EIP-4345 and suggests that the time between blocks will begin increasing around June 2022

It looks like the pawns are all set up, and it is extremely likely that the merge will likely occur in June. June is only three months away; bear that in mind. 

We are about to witness one of the most significant blockchain upgrades in history, the move of a Proof of Work network to a Proof of Stake network. Unless you follow Ethereum updates closely, you are likely to miss out on this. This may mean that the effects of this merge could not be priced in YET.

What will happen Post-Merge?

Currently, there is pressure for retail Proof of Work Miners to sell a significant portion of Ethereum to cover their electricity costs. These POW miners are earning 12,000 ETH. Ethereum is due to undergo a 90% cut of daily emissions. 

Proof of Stake Validators Post will earn 1,280 ETH per day, meaning that they will have no reason to sell their ETH to cover electricity costs. This will reduce sell pressure on Ethereum MASSIVELY.  

Once the merge is complete the yield from PoW to PoS will increase from 4.8% to approx 10-15%. These will incentivize users, to hold and stake ETH. 

Yeary inflation will go down from 4.3% to 0.43 % – this is equivalent of three halvenings at once.

PoS validators will go up from 4.5% to 10-15% Post merge.

Ethereum will undergo a 90% cut of daily emissions from 12,000 $ETH a day to 1280 $ETH

Yearly inflation will go down from 4.3% to 0.43% the equivalent of three halvenings *at once*

Meanwhile rewards for PoS validators will go up from 4.5% to 10-15% in the months after The Merge

— lito (@litocoen) March 14, 2022

What we are witnessing is what they call the triple-halving. Have other cryptocurrencies undergone something similar?

Bitcoin underwent halving when BTC rewards decreased from 12.5 BTC to 6.5 BTC. On that day the price of Bitcoin was $8,800, over the next 6 months after that, it tripled in price. This was the effect of just one halving. Imagine the effects the Ethereum triple halving will have.

Is it Priced in?

There is currently extreme bearishness in the crypto markets as well as in the stock market.  The fear of war, inflation, nuclear war, and the sharp decline of most markets have put most investors off risky assets. The effects of this merge may not fully be priced in, initially because the average retail investor does not fully understand the concepts of the reduction in sell pressure this merge will provide, but also because fundamentals of the merge are ignored in risk-on periods such as this.

We do not know the full effects of the merge, but we respect the huge significance it will have in the crypto markets.

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Ethereum

CZ Declines Suggestion to Take Over from Do Kwon as Head of Terra (LUNA) and Bail out UST in Recent Reddit AMA

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CZ Declines Suggestion to Take Over from Do Kwon as Head of Terra (LUNA) and Bail out UST in Recent Reddit AMA

Summary:

  • In a recent AMA, Binance CEO was asked whether he would consider taking over from Do Kwon at LUNA and bailing out UST.
  • CZ responded by stating he was humbled by the request, but such a scenario was unlikely given that he is ‘pretty busy already.’
  • CZ also clarified that the exact details of a possible LUNA airdrop after the Terra hardfork would be worked out after an official consensus.

Yesterday, May 21st, CZ held an AMA (Ask Me Anything) session on the r/Cryptocurrency subreddit page.

Reddit AMA starting soon. Ask your questions there.https://t.co/gIcMstB6qf pic.twitter.com/wFzAvK01Pp

— CZ 🔶 Binance (@cz_binance) May 21, 2022

For one hour, the CEO of Binance answered various questions spanning different topics in the crypto-verse, such as crypto adoption, the future of the Binance Smart Chain, and the recent events surrounding Terra (LUNA) and TerraUSD (UST).

CZ Declines Offer to Take Over from Do Kwon and Bailout UST

With respect to LUNA and UST, one community member known as u/emptystats asked CZ whether he would consider bailing out UST and taking over from Do Kwon as the head of Terra (LUNA).

According to u/emptystats, all CZ had to do was invest $3 to 6 billion to partially collateralize the remaining 10 billion UST. In return, Binance would get a significant allocation of the new LUNA tokens after the planned hardfork. Furthermore, there would be an additional mechanism whereby to redeem UST, users would have to buy and unlock BNB for three to seven years.

u/emptystats concluded that such an act from CZ would make him the most beloved man in the crypto space, and he ‘would likely make money too with BNB forced to be bought and locked.’

In his response, CZ stated that he was humbled by the request, but such a scenario was unlikely given how busy he is already. He said:

I am humbled by such a request. Thanks for the trust in me. But short answer is: unlikely.

I am pretty busy already, and algo stable coins is not my speciality. We should each do what we do best. I hope the community eventually settle on a good solution, and we will be here to support it.

Exact Details of the Pending LUNA Airdrop Will Be Worked Out

Concerning the possible hardfork of Terra into Terra Classic (LUNC) and a new Terra (LUNA) chain, CZ was asked whether Binance will distribute the new tokens according to individual user balances of the old tokens during the snapshot.

In his answer, CZ clarified that Binance ‘works hard to ensure users that hold coins/tokens on our exchange can receive airdrops intended for holders.’ He also added that ‘the exact details will be worked out after there is an official consensus on what the Terra team plans to do.’

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LUNA, UST Investors Can’t Catch a Break as Scammers Are Now Posting Fake Terra Community Proposals

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LUNA, UST Investors Can’t Catch a Break as Scammers Are Now Posting Fake Terra Community Proposals

Summary:

  • Malicious actors have been purchasing LUNA and posting fake proposals on Terra Station with phishing sites.
  • Terra has also witnessed an increment in spam proposals as the ‘cheapness’ of LUNA makes it economically easier.
  • The team at Terra has now added an allowlist for new proposals in the ecosystem.
  • The Terra community continues to vote on proposal 1623 to fork the chain with 66.3% for the idea.

LUNA and UST investors cannot seem to catch a break as malicious actors have been capitalizing on the recent events surrounding both digital assets to post fake proposals on Terra Station, with additional links to phishing sites.

Furthermore, the fake proposals claim to lead users to a preview of Terra 2.0 and Dapps launched by the team at Terra, while in reality, they are out to steal from the community.

2/ In addition, we have also seen a rapid increase in spam proposals as the discount on $LUNA made it economically cheap to post anything one desired. pic.twitter.com/dd524u8ndk

— Terra 🌍 Powered by LUNA 🌕 (@terra_money) May 20, 2022

The Cheap Value of LUNA Makes it Easier to Purchase Enough Coins to Submit Fake Proposals.

According to the team at Terra, the significant low price of Terra (LUNA) has made it possible for scammers to purchase vast amounts of the digital asset to carry out their phishing attacks.

New Terra Proposals To be Added to an Allowlist

Consequently, the team at Terra will now add proposals to an allowlist as they try to find a more sustainable solution to the situation. The Terra team also clarified that their end goal is not to censor viable proposals but to protect users from scams. They said:

Our goal is not to censor viable proposals, but rather to protect users from scams & ensure an excellent user experience. For those who would like to view all proposals, including potential scams/spam, simply click the “Show all” button on the “Governance” page on Station.

IMPORTANT. Clicking on the “Show all” button may reveal potential scam proposals. Please beware of these types of posts to keep your funds safe.

Votes for Terra Proposal 1623 Decreases to 66.31%

To note is that the Terra Community is currently voting on proposal 1623, which is geared towards forking the chain into Terra Classic (LUNC) and a new chain of Terra (LUNA).

Mid-last week, 90% of the Terra community were for the proposal, with Do Kwon adding three quick amendments by Friday, May 20th. However, a glance at the ongoing voting on Terra Station reveals that only 66.31% of the votes cast are now for the modified proposal.

LUNA, UST Investors Can't Catch a Break as Scammers Are Now Posting Fake Terra Community Proposals 16
Progress of Terra Proposal 1623 with three days left to vote. Source, station.terra.money/proposal/1623

At the time of writing, a total of 252.745 million votes have been cast, with 167.606 million for proposal 1623. The vote has already passed the minimum 50% threshold needed to sail through. Therefore, it can be concluded that the Terra Community will go along with the proposal to fork the chain despite there being three more days of voting left.

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Crypto is Worth Nothing and Based on Nothing, Says ECB President Lagarde

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Crypto is Worth Nothing and Based on Nothing, Says ECB President Lagarde

Quick take:

  • European Central Bank President, Christine Lagarde, has said cryptocurrencies are worth nothing and based on nothing.
  • She added that cryptocurrencies do not have an underlying asset to act as an anchor of safety.
  • ECB President Lagarde said that a digital Euro would be a better store of value than cryptocurrencies.
  • The EU Commission on a digital euro (CBDC) is still accepting consultations from experts on the topic.

Christine Lagarde, the European Central Bank President, has said that cryptocurrencies are based on nothing and should be regulated to protect people from the possibility of speculating over them with their life savings.

Ms. Lagarde made the comments during a Dutch television discussion where she also added that digital assets are not backed by anything as an anchor. Her exact statements on cryptocurrencies were as follows:

[I’m concerned about people] who have no understanding of the risks, who will lose it all and who will be terribly disappointed, which is why I believe that that should be regulated.

My very humble assessment is that it is worth nothing, it is based on nothing, there is no underlying asset to act as an anchor of safety.

A Digital Euro Would be a Safer Bet

Ms. Lagarde also admitted that she does not hold any cryptocurrencies because she wants to practice what she preaches. She, however, was optimistic about the prospects of a Digital Euro being a safer alternative. She said:

The day when we have the central bank digital currency out, any digital euro, I will guarantee — so the central bank will behind it and I think it’s vastly different than many of those things.

EU Commission on a Digital Euro Is Still Accepting Comments from Experts on the Topic

Concerning the feasibility of a Digital Euro, the EU Commission on a Central Bank Digital Currency within the region is still accepting comments from industry experts on the topic.

Patrick Hansen highlighted this fact through the following Tweet. Mr. Hansen is a crypto venture advisor at Presight Capital and has on numerous occasions provided valuable insights on the status of digital asset regulation in Europe.

If you don’t share Christine Lagarde’s opinion that the digital euro is the way forward, you still have three weeks to raise your concerns in the EU commission CBDC consultation – deadline June 14. https://t.co/p5eMF5ySo5

— Patrick Hansen (@paddi_hansen) May 22, 2022

The deadline to submit statements on the topic of a Digital Euro is June 14th, and the following individuals and entities are encouraged to submit their opinion on the matter.

Payment industry specialists, payment service providers (including credit institutions, payment and e-money institutions), payment infrastructure providers, developers of payment solutions, merchants, merchant associations, consumer associations, retail payments regulators, and supervisors, anti-money laundering (AML) supervisors, Financial Intelligence Units, and other relevant authorities and experts.

Concerning the object of the consultation for a digital euro, the EU Commission tasked with the process explains that it is meant to ‘ to collect further information on expected impacts on key industries (financial intermediation, payment services, merchants), users (consumer associations, retailers’ associations), chambers of commerce and other stakeholders in international trade.’

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