The year is 2027. It’s a time of great innovation and technological advancement, but also a time of chaos. What will the crypto market look like in 2027? (For those unfamiliar, that’s a line from the 2011 video game, Deus Ex.)
Long-term predictions are notoriously difficult to make, but they are good thought experiments. One year is too short a period for fundamental changes, but five years is just enough for everything to change.
Here are the most unexpected and outrageous events that could happen over the next five years.
1. The metaverse will not rise
The metaverse is a hot topic, but most people do not have even the slightest idea of what it actually comprises. The metaverse is a holistic virtual world that exists on an ongoing basis (without pauses or resets), works in real-time, accommodates any number of users, has its own economy, is created by the participants themselves, and is characterized by unprecedented interoperability. A variety of applications could (in theory) be integrated into the metaverse, including games, video-conferencing applications, services for issuing driver’s licenses — anything.
This definition makes it clear the metaverse is not such a novel phenomenon. Games and social networks that include most of the features stated above have been around for quite some time. Granted, interoperability is a problem that needs to be addressed seriously. It would have been a very useful feature to be able to easily transfer digital assets between games — or a digital identity — without being tethered to a specific platform.
But the metaverse will never be able to cater to every need. There is no reason to include some services in the metaverse at all. Some services will remain isolated due to the unwillingness of their operators to surrender control over them.
The “metaverse” is going to happen but I don’t think any of the existing corporate attempts to intentionally create the metaverse are going anywhere. https://t.co/tVUfq4CWmP
— vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) July 30, 2022
And there is also the technical aspect to take into account. The cyberpunk culture of the 1980s and 90s postulated that the metaverse meant total immersion. Such immersion is now conceived as possible only with the use of virtual reality glasses. VR hardware is getting better every year, but it’s not what we expected. VR remains a niche phenomenon even among hardcore gamers. The vast majority of ordinary people will never put on such glasses for the sake of calling their grandmother or selling some crypto on an exchange.
True immersion requires a technological breakthrough like smart contact lenses or Neuralink. It is highly unlikely those technologies will be widely used five years from now.
2. Wallets will become “super apps”
An active decentralized finance (DeFi) user is forced to deal with dozens of protocols these days. Wallets, interfaces, exchanges, bridges, loan protocols — there are hundreds of them, and they are growing daily. Having to live with such an array of technologies is inconvenient even for advanced users. As for the prospects of mass adoption, such a state of affairs is all the more unacceptable.
For the ordinary user, it is ideal when a maximum number of services can be accessed through a limited number of universal applications. The optimal choice is when they are integrated right into their wallet. Storing, exchanging, transferring to other networks, staking — why bother visiting dozens of different sites for accessing such services if all the necessary operations can be carried out using a single interface?
Users don’t care which exchange or bridge they use. They are only concerned about security, speed and low fees. A significant number of DeFi protocols will eventually turn into back-ends that cater to popular wallets and interfaces.
3. Bitcoin will become a unit of account on par with the U.S. dollar or Euro
Money has three main roles — acting as a means of payment, as a store of value and as a unit of account. Many cryptocurrencies, primarily stablecoins, are used as a means of payment. Bitcoin (BTC) and — to a much lesser extent — Ether (ETH) are used as stores of value among cryptocurrencies. But the United States dollar remains the main unit of account in the world. Everything is valued in dollars, including Bitcoin.
The real victory for sound money will be heralded when cryptocurrencies take over the role of a unit of account. Bitcoin is currently the main candidate for this role. Such a victory will signify a major mental shift.
Wheat up 43% in the first 5 months this year
Nat Gas 155% since Jan, +10% today
Let’s see how long the “consumer remains strong” as this whittles away at what little savings they have left and as debt racks up
Fight inflation w/ inflation, just print more lol pic.twitter.com/b19becqa2x
— Pentoshi (leading cattle to butcher) (@Pentosh1) June 6, 2022
What needs to happen in the next five years to make this a possibility?
A sharp drop in the confidence vested in the U.S. dollar and euro is a prerequisite for cryptocurrencies to take on the role of a basic unit of account. Western authorities have already done a lot to undermine said confidence by printing trillions of dollars in fiat money, allowing abnormally high inflation to spiral, freezing hundreds of billions of a sovereign country’s reserves, and so on. This may be just the beginning.
What if actual inflation becomes much worse than projected? What if the economic crisis is protracted? What if a new epidemic breaks out? What if the conflict in Ukraine spills into neighboring countries? All of these are feasible scenarios. Some are extreme, of course — but they are possible.
4. At least half of the top 50 cryptocurrencies will see their standing decline
There is a high probability that the list of top cryptocurrencies will radically change. Outright zombies such as Ethereum Classic (ETC) will be ousted from the list, and projects that now seem to hold unshakable positions will not only be de-throned but may also vanish altogether.
Some stablecoins will surely sink. New ones will take their place. Cardano (ADA) will slide down the list to officially become a living corpse. The project is moving agonizingly slowly. Developers not only fail to see this as problematic but even seem to view it as a benefit.
5. The crypto market will fragment along geographic lines
Cryptocurrencies are global by default, but they are not invulnerable to the influence of individual states. The state always has an edge and an extra trick up its sleeve. A number of territories (the U.S., the European Union, China, India, Russia, etc.) have already introduced or are threatening to introduce strict regulation of cryptocurrencies.
The factor of international competition is superimposed onto internal state motivations. When Russia was heavily sanctioned, some crypto projects started restricting Russian users from accessing their services or even blocking their funds. This scenario may play out again in the future with respect to China.
It is not difficult to imagine a future in which parts of the crypto market will work in favor of some countries while closing to others. We are living in such a future already, at least to some degree.
The opinions expressed are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice.
Shiba Inu eyes 50% rally as SHIB price enters ‘cup-and-handle’ breakout mode
Shiba Inu could soar 50%
A cup-and-handle appears when the price falls and rises in a U-shaped trajectory in the first stage, followed by a swift move sideways or downward in the second. Notably, the price trend develops under a common resistance level.
Typically, cup-and-handle patterns resolve after the price breaks above the resistance level; SHIB did the same on Aug. 14 after rising 27% to $0.000016, as shown below.
Per the rule of technical analysis, a cup-and-handle breakout target is determined by measuring the distance between the pattern’s lowest point and resistance line and adding it to the breakout point. As a result, SHIB could head toward $0.00002253.
In other words, a 50% price rally by September.
A nonsense rally, nonetheless?
Fundamentally, Shiba Inu’s 27% intraday price rally on Aug. 14 had no visible catalysts except a metric showing that SHIB’s burn rate surged by 825% in a day. But the amount of burned SHIB is worth only over $4,500.
On the whole, however, the Shiba Inu network has burned over $6.36 million worth of SHIB tokens in its lifetime.
In addition, the Shiba Inu rally came almost ten days after Binance’s announcement to add SHIB support on its payment cards issued in Europe. In doing so, the crypto exchange raised SHIB’s potential to find new users in the emerging European cryptocurrency space.
We are pleased to announce that @binance has added SHIB to the list of supported tokens for the Binance Card issued in Europe.
— Shib (@Shibtoken) August 5, 2022
Weak fundamentals could offset SHIB’s technically bullish bias, however, given tha cup-and-handle setups have only a 61% success rate in meeting their profit targets, according to veteran analyst Tom Bulkowski.
Therefore, a failed cup-and-handle breakout—also on a pullback from the 200-day exponential moving average (200-day EMA; the blue wave in the chart below) near $0.00001755—could have SHIB eye an initial correction toward $0.00001306, down 20% from today’s price.
Shiba Inu’s cup-and-handle setup could fizzle because of the token’s overbought daily relative strength index (RSI). Notably, the RSI has crossed above 70, which typically results in a period of sideways consolidation or correction.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Top 5 cryptocurrencies to watch this week: BTC, ADA, UNI, LINK, CHZ
The S&P 500 rose for the fourth successive week as investors cheered on signs that inflation may have peaked. Bitcoin (BTC) and select altcoins also extended their recovery, suggesting that investors are increasing their exposure to risk assets.
However, trading firm QCP Capital is cautious about the momentum in the altcoin market. They highlighted that the open interest on Ether options had surged to $8 billion, exceeding Bitcoin option OI which was at $5 billion. Glassnode suggested that traders have been booking profits on the spread between their spot long Ether versus the quarterly short Ether futures positions.
Could Bitcoin and the altcoins extend their recovery in the next few days? Let’s study the charts of the top-5 cryptocurrencies that may outperform in the near term.
Bitcoin rose above the overhead resistance of $24,668 on Aug. 13 and Aug. 14 but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels. This indicates that bears are selling on rallies but repeated breach of an overhead resistance tends to weaken it.
The gradually upsloping 20-day exponential moving average of $23,414 and the relative strength index (RSI) in the positive territory indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside. If bulls sustain the price above $25,000, the momentum could pick up further and the BTC/Tether (USDT) pair could rally to $28,000.
This level may act as a stiff resistance but if bulls clear this hurdle, the rally could extend to $32,000. The critical level to watch on the downside is the 20-day EMA. A bounce off it will indicate that the sentiment remains positive and traders are buying on dips.
On the contrary, if the price turns down from the current level and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that bears remain active at higher levels. The pair could then drop to the 50-day simple moving average of $21,976.
The $24,668 level is witnessing a tough battle between the bulls and the bears. The upsloping moving averages indicate advantage to buyers but the negative divergence on the RSI suggests the momentum may be weakening.
If the price breaks below the 20-EMA, it will signal a minor advantage to the bears. The pair could then decline to the 50-SMA and later to $23,600. Alternatively, if the price turns up from the 20-EMA and rises above $25,050, the up-move may resume.
Cardano (ADA) broke and closed above the overhead resistance at $0.55 on Aug. 13. This indicates that the uncertainty has resolved in favor of the bulls.
The rising 20-day EMA of $0.52 and the RSI in the positive territory indicate that bulls have the upper hand. The ADA/USDT pair could rally to $0.63 and then to the strong overhead resistance at $0.70. This level is likely to attract strong selling by the bears.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the current level and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the break above $0.55 may have been a bull trap. The pair could then decline to the 50-day SMA of $0.49 and later to $0.45.
The pair completed an ascending triangle pattern on a break and close above the overhead resistance at $0.55. This pushed the RSI on the 4-hour chart to overbought levels, which may have tempted short-term traders to book profits.
The price may drop to the breakout level of $0.55. If bulls flip this level into support, the pair may continue its up-move to the pattern target at $0.65. This positive view could invalidate in the near term if the price plummets below the uptrend line.
Uniswap (UNI) has been consolidating between $8.11 and $9.83 for the past few days. This suggests that the bulls are buying the dips but the bears are defending the overhead resistance.
The longer the price remains in the range, the stronger the breakout will be from it. The 20-day EMA of $8.54 is sloping up and the RSI is in the positive territory, indicating an advantage to buyers. If bulls thrust the price above $9.83, the UNI/USDT pair could pick up momentum and rally toward $10.55 and later to $12.
Alternatively, if the price turns down from the current level and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the pair may continue its range-bound action for some more time. The bears will have to sink and sustain the price below $8.11 to gain the upper hand.
The 4-hour chart shows that the bears are defending the zone between $9.50 and $9.83. If the price breaks below $8.74, the sellers will attempt to sink the pair to the strong support at $8.11. The buyers are expected to buy the dip to this level.
The flattening moving averages and the RSI near the midpoint suggest that the range-bound action may continue for some more time. The next trending move could start on a break above $9.83 or on a close below $8.11.
Chainlink (LINK) has been trading in a large range between $5.50 and $9.50 for the past several weeks. The bulls attempted to push the price above the range on Aug. 12 but the bears held their ground.
The 20-day EMA of $8.00 is sloping up and the RSI is in the positive territory, indicating that bulls have the upper hand. If the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA, the bulls will make one more attempt to clear the overhead hurdle at $9.50. If they succeed, the LINK/USDT pair could rally to $12.30 and then to $13.50.
Instead, if the price breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that traders are booking profits near the resistance. That could sink the pair to the 50-day SMA of $7.00 and increase the stay inside the range for a few more days.
The price turned down from the overhead resistance at $9.50 and broke below the 20-EMA on the 4-hour chart. This suggests that traders may be booking profits. The pair could drop to the 50-SMA, which may act as a strong support.
If the price rebounds off the 50-SMA, the bulls will again try to push the pair above $9.50. If they succeed, the pair could start the next leg of the up-move. On the other hand, if the price slips below the 50-SMA, the pair could decline to $8.29.
Chiliz (CHZ) has been in a strong recovery for the past few days but the long wick on the Aug. 14 candlestick suggests that bears are defending the overhead resistance at $0.19.
Although the rising 20-day EMA of $0.14 indicates an advantage to buyers, the RSI in the overbought territory suggests a minor correction or consolidation in the short term. If the price turns down from the current level, the first critical level to watch on the downside is the 20-day EMA.
A strong rebound off this level will suggest that the bulls are viewing the dips as a buying opportunity. That will improve the prospects of a break above the overhead resistance. If that happens, the CHZ/USDT pair could rally to $0.22 and then to $0.24.
Alternatively, if the price slips below the 20-day EMA, the pair could slide to the 50-day SMA of $0.12. Such a move will suggest that the pair may form a range in the near term.
The sharp rally in the pair pushed the RSI deep into the overbought territory on the 4-hour chart, indicating that a correction or consolidation was possible. The same may have started and the pair could decline to the 20-EMA, which is an important level to keep an eye on.
If the price rebounds off the 20-EMA, it will suggest that the positive sentiment remains intact. The buyers will then again try to resume the up-move. This bullish view will be negated in the near term if the price breaks and sustains below the 50-SMA.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
AML and KYC: A catalyst for mainstream crypto adoption
For Satoshi Nakamoto, the creator of Bitcoin (BTC), the motivation to create a new payment ecosystem from scratch in 2009 stemmed from the economic chaos caused by the banking sector’s over-exuberant and risky lending practices mixed accompanied by the bursting of the housing bubbles in many countries at the time.
“And who do you think picked up the pieces after the fallout? The taxpayer, of course,” said Durgham Mushtaha, business development manager of blockchain analytics firm Coinfirm, in an exclusive interview with Cointelegraph.
Satoshi recognized the need for a new monetary system based on equity and fairness — a system that gives back power into the hands of the people. A trustless system with anonymous participants, transacting peer-to-peer and without the need of a central entity.
However, a subsequent market downturn — fueled by the initial coin offering bubble bursting — made the crypto industry realize the need to build credibility, authority and trust by proactively working with regulators and legislators. Enter Anti-Money Laundering (AML) and Know Your Customers (KYC) procedures.
Mushtaha started the discussion by highlighting how, unlike fiat currency, transactions in coins and tokens built on blockchain technology are far easier to trace using on-chain analytics and AML tools. Furthermore, introducing KYC procedures to identify and legitimize users across major crypto exchanges resulted in a far more robust financial system that became more impervious to money laundering and other illicit activity.
As a result, it effectively bolstered the sector’s image and enticed more people to trust their hard-earned money in the market. “I see the next bull market becoming a watershed moment, where the masses dive into crypto as fears dissipate and the sector grows exponentially,” he said.
Impact of KYC and AML on the evolution of finance
The early discussions and implementation of global AML and KYC legislation date back five decades, marked by the establishment of the Bank Secrecy Act (BSA) in 1970 and the global Financial Action Task Force (FATF) in 1989. “The risk scenario indicators developed in traditional finance over the past 50 years have been adopted into crypto and niche sectors of the industry, including decentralized finance,” added Mushtaha:
“Where we differ from traditional finance is our on-chain analytical processes. There are no blockchains in traditional finance, so they are missing a huge part of the jigsaw as the blockchain sector is not siloed.”
Sharing insights into what today’s KYC and AML implementation looks like from a provider perspective, Mushtaha revealed that Coinfirm has over 350 risk scenario indicators that cover money laundering, financing of terrorism, sanctions, drug trade, ransomware, scams, investment fraud and more.
With AML getting more sophisticated in the decentralized finance (DeFi) space, “We can now tell you whether your wallet was directly implicated in illicit activities or has inherited risk from another address by receiving assets from ill-gotten gains.” In addition, technology has evolved alongside the crypto ecosystem to provide risk profiles on wallet addresses and transactions based on on-chain analytics.
Declining use of cryptocurrencies in money laundering
Year after year, numerous reports have confirmed a consistent decline in the use of money laundering — with transactions involving illicit addresses representing just 0.15% of cryptocurrency transaction volume in 2021. Mushtaha believes that this finding stands to reason.
“Those involved in illicit activity would be wise to steer clear of blockchain-related assets and stick to the tried and tested dollar. The United States dollar is still the most utilized and preferred currency for money laundering,” he said while adding that, in crypto, once a wallet address has been identified as holding assets that were earned through illegal activity, there’s little the criminal can do.
99.85% of activity on blockchains is NOT crime. Keep this in mind when reviewing the next harsh regulation proposal.
Crypto Crime Trends for 2022: Illicit Transaction Activity Reaches All-Time Low in Share of All Cryptocurrency Activity https://t.co/94VB7FiyZb
— Sten Tamkivi (@seikatsu) January 16, 2022
With present-day regulatory scrutiny ensuring crypto exchanges are KYC compliant, bad actors find it difficult to off-ramp crypto assets into fiat or spend them in open markets. Speaking about the various methods most commonly used to transfer illicit funds, Mushtaha stated:
“Sure, they can try to make use of anonymizing techniques, like mixers, tumblers and privacy coins, but then their assets will be flagged and tainted for using them.”
As cryptocurrencies become more accepted and prevalent globally, criminals will turn to a black market in order to sell ill-gotten assets. Given the availability of marketplaces where money can be spent without KYC, it will be incumbent on future law enforcement agencies to crack down on such sites.
KYC and AML tools can now correlate IP addresses with wallet addresses, and clustering algorithms do an amazing job at identifying associated addresses. Such measures would be difficult, even for state-level actors, to launder through exchanges outside their borders. Mushtaha added, “The Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has lists of identified addresses belonging to sanctioned persons and entities. The assets in those addresses are too hot for anyone to handle.”
Role of CBDCs in countering money laundering
Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) could offer central banks a level of control never seen in fiat currency. Imagine all of the issues with fiat, like government manipulation and inflation, but now with the power of on-chain analytics. CBDCs will allow more granular scrutiny of users’ spending habits and central banks to freeze holdings, limit them, set expiry dates, automatically tax every transaction or even decide what can and can’t be bought with them. “Every merchant, financial institution and retail customer would also need to comply with KYC, thereby disincentivizing money laundering,” said Mushtaha.
Libra, a permissioned blockchain-based stablecoin launched by Facebook’s parent company Meta, failed to gain traction when it was launched in 2019. Consequently, mainstream conversations around Meta’s crypto initiatives catalyzed numerous governments to try out CBDCs, with China being one the first to launch its CBDC.
The possibilities for currency control are not the sole motivations for this wave of government-sponsored innovation. While pointing out that governments no longer follow the gold standard, Mushtaha highlighted present-day inflation as a direct result of federal and central agencies printing money at will.
“The United States printed more dollars than ever existed before. And the result of that is rampant inflation that’s off the charts.”
Moreover, Mushtaha argued that increasing the interest rates too much, too quickly, would cause a catastrophic cascade of overextended debt-ridden financial institutions to collapse. As a result, CBDCs stand out as a solution for central banks, adding that “For the first time, central banks could destroy money as well as create it.”
Evolution of AML, KYC and technological advancements
Based on his extensive experience in the AML/KYC sector, Mushtaha stated that technology adapts to the evolution of regulations and not the other way round. Startup trading platforms that decide to integrate AML tools have the option to apply for a virtual asset service provider (VASP) and securities licenses. “Becoming compliant means a huge pool of opportunities becomes open to you. Funding in this space is only available to those focusing on compliance.” As a result, AML solution providers find themselves bridging the gap between the crypto world and the compliant financial system.
Mushtaha shared an instance working with a startup that is currently developing a nonfungible token (NFT)-based KYC solution using zero-knowledge Proofs. “The cleverness comes from their recognition that NFTs used for KYC don’t need to solve the double spend problem, so can be disengaged from the blockchain entirely. This then allows for private biometric data to be stored on the NFT and a zk-Proof to be sent to each platform where the individual wants to open an account.”
Although the solution is designed to perform as a centralized entity for storing the NFT information “most likely on a permissioned (publicly inaccessible) chain,” Mushtaha affirms it’s a step in the right direction as NFTs serve KYC use cases over the next decade as digitalization continues to permeate across industry verticals.
In terms of AML, new tools and advancements are coming out every month owing to the accelerated rate of innovation. According to Mushtaha, an in-house tool allows Coinfirm to analyze every wallet address that contributes assets to a smart contract-controlled liquidity pool, adding that “We can provide risk profiles for tens of thousands of addresses at a time.”
AI innovations focusing on algorithmically generated transaction-based user behavior pattern recognition will be a key trend. “The blockchain holds a wealth of behavior-related data, that can be used to analyse money laundering patterns, and then extrapolate risk profiles for wallet addresses that behave in these ways,” explained Mushtaha.
Machine learning tools, which have collected large pools of data sets over the years across the crypto landscape, will also be utilized to predict potential trade outcomes.
Governments monitoring cross-border crypto transactions
The FATF issued its revised guidance in October last year, where they labeled every crypto asset that preserves privacy or that doesn’t involve an intermediary of some kind as high risk. This is not surprising as the FATF’s explicit mandate is to eliminate “any threats to the integrity of the international financial system,” of which it considers cryptocurrencies to be one. Hence, the introduction of the Travel Rule in 2019 requires all VASPs to pass on certain information to the next financial institution in a transaction.
When the rule gets applied to un-hosted wallet addresses held by private individuals, however, “The FATF seems to be laying the groundwork to apply the Travel Rule to these wallets if peer-to-peer transactions increase in the next few years, potentially imposing on privacy rights,” said Mushtaha.
A more prudent approach, according to Mushtaha, would be to harmonize the mostly fragmented implementation approaches of the existing Travel Rule across jurisdictions, making cross-border transactions more straightforward while also focusing on VASP compliance.
Crypto entrepreneurs’ role in countering money laundering
Given the availability of off-the-shelf AML solutions designed to tailor-fit each VASP’s particular requirements, Mushtaha believes “there really is no excuse anymore” for neglecting compliance. It is also incumbent on VASPs to establish comprehensive educational materials for their users as the world prepares for frictionless mass adoption.
#Binance works closely with regulators worldwide, with the purpose of driving Web3 into the mainstream.
Hear from Binance VP, Global Marketing, James Rothwell who covers the importance of regulation in establishing a Web3 world. pic.twitter.com/ZaJfLQPX35
— Binance (@binance) August 2, 2022
Mushtaha believes that crypto entrepreneurs are in a unique position to help write the next chapter of the global financial system, and they should understand that AML compliance isn’t an impediment to their success — but a catalyst. “Most retail investors want to navigate this space safely, managing their risks while transacting,” he recommended. “And giving these investors peace of mind should be a VASP’s priority.”
Working toward a regulatory future
KYC and AML are necessary elements of today’s macro economy and are important components of the crypto space. Mushtaha disagrees with the belief that regulations erode anonymity.
“Regulations will drive mass adoption, but it’s incumbent on the players in this space to proactively put forward the framework for regulation that encourages innovation while disincentivizing illicit activity. There is a need to strike a balance where one can monitor money laundering while maintaining a user’s privacy. These are not mutually exclusive goals; you can have both.”
And, to investors, Mushtaha advised the age-old adage, “do your own research.”
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