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When Will Bitcoin Bottom Out? Pi Cycle Bottom Says It Will Happen on July 9

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When Will Bitcoin Bottom Out? Pi Cycle Bottom Says It Will Happen on July 9

Many cryptocurrency enthusiasts have heard of the Pi Cycle Top indicator, which has “magically” predicted the peaks of several previous bull markets. However, few know that there is also its opposite, Pi Cycle Bottom, which also has some track record in trying to estimate the bottom of a bear market.

But before we take a closer look at Pi Cycle Bottom, let’s remind ourselves why its bullish nemesis has earned so much popularity.

The historic effectiveness of the Pi Cycle Top

We first wrote about the Pi Cycle Top on BeInCrypto over a year ago, when Bitcoin was close to reaching its previous all-time high (ATH). The indicator is based on the relationship between the double of the 350-day DMA and the 111-day DMA. The signal fired on April 12, 2021, and just two days later, Bitcoin reached a historic ATH of $64,900.

This high accuracy of the Pi Cycle Top was not an exception, as the indicator has been very effective in previous cycles as well. All 3 historical ATHs of previous bull markets coincided with the signal flashing up no more than 5 days before or after the peak.

Chart by Tradingview

The only ATH during which the Pi Cycle Top was far from crossed is the most recent one. On November 10, 2021, when BTC reached $69,000, the indicator failed to generate a signal. At the time, this was interpreted as a sign that the second wave of the bull market was not yet over. Today we know that the indicator failed in this case.

Pi Cycle Bottom and the end of a bear market

Pi Cycle Bottom is the opposite of Pi Cycle Top. The bearish version is the relationship between the 471 SMA and the 150 EMA. Moreover, the former is multiplied by a factor of 0.745. Not a very elegant construction, but historically quite effective.

As it turns out Pi Cycle Bottom indicator could be successfully used to estimate the area of the absolute bottom of two previous bear markets (blue lines).

The first time the 150 EMA fell below the 471 SMA was on January 16, 2015. This happened just two days after the absolute bottom of the BTC price at $152.

The second time the Pi Cycle Bottom generated the same signal was on December 16, 2018. This happened just one day after the absolute bottom of the previous bear market at $3122.

Chart by Tradingview

We are currently approaching the third signal in history and another bearish crossing of the two moving averages (blue circle).

When will Bitcoin bottom out?

If the relationship between the intersection of the two moving averages and the bottom of the BTC price repeats itself in this cycle, Bitcoin could soon reach the bottom of this bear market. Currently, the 150 EMA has begun the sharp decline characteristic of the recent capitulation phase. A crossover is likely in the coming days.

Cryptocurrency market analyst @TheRealPlanC tweeted his own prediction of the date of the intersection and reaching a hypothetical bottom for Bitcoin. Based on the movement trajectory of the two curves, he estimated that the intersection will occur on July 9, 2022.

Source: Twitter

If this were to happen, then in exactly 15 days the Pi Cycle Bottom would generate a signal that very accurately indicated the bottom of the BTC price in the previous two iterations.

One step further went another analyst @el_crypto_prof, who combined the potential signal from the Pi Cycle Bottom with a fractal analysis of previous cycles. In his opinion, if a potential Bitcoin bottom were to happen in the near future, it would fit well with analogies between previous cycles.

Source: Twitter

In the chart above, we can see that for the entire period from April 2021, the analyst includes the post-ATH correction phase highlighted in red. It also includes the latest ATH at $69,000 reached on November 10. Although technically a higher BTC price was reached then, many technical and on-chain indicators suggest that it was already a bear market.

Perhaps this was also the reason why the Pi Cycle Top did not generate a proper signal. If this is true and the correction in the BTC market has been going on for more than a year, then indeed we can soon expect an end to the long-term decline. The Pi Cycle Bottom indicator is just an additional layer of confluence that may make this scenario more likely.

For BeInCrypto’s latest Bitcoin (BTC) analysis, click here.

Disclaimer

All the information contained on our website is published in good faith and for general information purposes only. Any action the reader takes upon the information found on our website is strictly at their own risk.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Nearly Taps $25,000 Level For the First Time Since June

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Bitcoin (BTC) Nearly Taps $25,000 Level For the First Time Since June

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing several bullish signs in the daily time frame but has yet to break out from a short-term corrective pattern.

Bitcoin has been moving upwards since reaching a long-term low of $17,622 on June 18. On July 19, it broke out from a long-term descending resistance line, which had been in place since the end of March. 

On Aug. 11, BTC reached a local high of $24,918, which was the highest since June 12. However, it failed to sustain this increase and created a long upper wick in its daily candlestick (red icon).

If the upward movement continues, the closest resistance area would be found at $29,370. This target is the 0.382 Fib retracement resistance level.

An interesting reading comes from the daily RSI, which moved above 50 at the same time which the price broke out from the descending resistance line. 

Since then, the RSI has created an ascending triangle (dashed), which is often considered a bullish pattern. The indicator is currently at 61, right at the resistance line of this pattern. 

Therefore, a breakout above it would likely also cause the price to accelerate upwards.

Short-term BTC pattern

Despite the relative bullishness from the daily time frame, the six-hour chart shows that BTC has been trading inside an ascending parallel channel since the June 18 bottom. Such channels usually contain corrective patterns, meaning that an eventual breakdown from it would be expected. 

Moreover, the price has created what resembles an even shorter-term double top (red icons), which is considered a bearish pattern made at the resistance line of the channel.

On Aug. 9 (green circle), the price rebounded from the midline of this channel and at a short-term ascending support line. 

So, whether BTC breaks out from the channel or breaks down from the support line will likely determine the direction of the future trend.

Wave count analysis

The main wave count indicates that BTC is likely in wave three of a five-wave upward move (black). The sub-wave count is shown in yellow, and also suggests that the price is in wave three. So, this seems to be a 1-2/1-2 wave formation. If correct, it would mean that the upward move will accelerate in the near future. 

In order for the count to remain correct, Bitcoin has to hold on above the slope of the original 1-2 (black).

The most likely long-term wave count is also bullish, aligning with the proposed short-term count.

For Be[in]Crypto’s previous Bitcoin (BTC) analysis, click here

Disclaimer

All the information contained on our website is published in good faith and for general information purposes only. Any action the reader takes upon the information found on our website is strictly at their own risk.

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Binance recovers the majority of funds stolen from Curve Finance

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Binance recovers the majority of funds stolen from Curve Finance

Binance recovered and froze around $450,000 worth of the stolen assets, which is around 80 percent of the stolen funds.

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Binance recovers the majority of funds stolen from Curve Finance

Crypto exchange Binance has recovered a big part of the funds from the recent hack that targeted the decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol Curve Finance. 

In a tweet, Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao announced that the exchange has frozen and recovered $450,000 of the stolen assets, which is more than 80 percent of the stolen funds. According to Zhao, the hacker tried to send the funds to the exchange in various ways but was detected by Binance. The exchange is currently working to return the funds to their rightful owners.

The Curve Finance team detected the hack on Tuesday and alerted their users to refrain from using their website. An hour after the warning, the team announced that it was able to find and resolve the issue. However, the attackers were still able to hijack around $537,000 worth of USD Coin (USDC) before the issue was resolved.

According to experts from the blockchain analytics firm Elliptic, a hacker compromised the domain name system (DNS) of Curve Finance, which ended with malicious transactions getting signed. The experts told Cointelegraph that the funds were then sent to various exchanges and crypto mixers in an attempt to hide the trail. In the end, the funds were sent to Binance and were caught by its team.

Related: Cross-chains in the crosshairs: Hacks call for better defense mechanisms

This is not the first time this week that the good actors in the crypto community have worked to return stolen funds. On Monday, whitehat hackers and researchers returned an estimated $32.6 million worth of USDC, Tether (USDT) and other altcoins to Nomad, following the recent $190 million exploit.

The Curve Finance exploit is only one of the many attacks that happened in 2022. According to analytics firm Chainalysis, $2 billion worth of funds were drained because of cross-chain bridge hacks. This is 69% of the overall stolen amount in the year.

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Institutional staking won’t take off unless asset lock-up solved: Coinbase CFO

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Institutional staking won’t take off unless asset lock-up solved: Coinbase CFO

Coinbase’s new institutional-focused staking product won’t be a “near-term phenomenon” while liquid staking is still being worked out.

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Institutional staking won’t take off unless asset lock-up solved: Coinbase CFO

Institutional staking of crypto assets, including the post-Merge Ethereum, could become a “phenomenon” in the future, but not while their assets still need to be “locked up.”

Speaking during a Q2 earnings call on Tuesday, chief financial officer Alesia Haas noted that she didn’t expect their new exclusive institutional staking service, rolled out in Q2, to be a “near-term phenomenon” until a “truly liquid staking option” is available:

“This is the first time we had the products available. Previously, the way that institutions could have access to staking is via Coinbase Cloud […] But offering it as the delegated staking service similar to what we have for retail customers.”

However, Haas said it was still “early days” for their new staking service, adding they’ll likely only see a “real material impact” when they have created a liquid staking option for post-Merge Ethereum, also known as Eth2.

Liquid staking is the process of locking up funds to earn staking rewards, while still having access to the funds. 

Haas explained that many financial institutions “don’t want their assets held indefinitely:”

“So when you stake ETH2 you are locking in your assets into Ethereum until the Merge and then some period after. For some institutions, that liquidity lock-up is not palatable to them. And so, while they may be interested in staking, they want to have staking on a liquid asset.”

Haas reaffirmed this issue is “something we are looking to solve,” and added that once this liquid staking is available for financial institutions that can pool in funds at higher proportions, “we’ll see the real material impact of institutional revenue.”

Related: Coinbase partners with BlackRock to create new access points for institutional crypto investing

Investors and institutions have been able to access Coinbase’s delegated staking service through Coinbase Prime, which was first launched in Sep. 2021. The platform also offers other integrated services, such as access to a custody wallet with enhanced security, real-time crypto market data and analytics, and other crypto-native features like decentralized governance.

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