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Here’s why Bitcoin might be safe from a global stock market crisis

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Here’s why Bitcoin might be safe from a global stock market crisis

One of the reasons behind Bitcoin’s (BTC) volatility, the substantial price oscillations that occur regularly, is the discrepancy of its use cases. Some pundits deem it “digital gold,” a truly scarce and perfect store of value (SoV). Others consider Bitcoin a technology project or a type of software with a corresponding network.

El Salvador’s adoption as legal tender will likely evidence the means of exchange (MoE) functionality that the Lightning Network provides. The Layer-2 scaling solution allows instant and insanely cheap transfers, although it requires regular on-chain transactions to enter or exit this parallel network.

As these narratives about Bitcoin shift over time, so does BTC’s correlation to traditional assets. For example, there have been sustained periods of a strong correlation with gold.

Bitcoin vs. gold (precious metal) in 2020. Source: TradingView

The March 2020 crash was devastating for almost every asset class, but the recovery pattern that followed those six or seven months was virtually identical for gold and Bitcoin. Curiously, the opposite movement occurred in 2021, displaying an inverse correlation between the two assets.

Is Bitcoin a tech stock proxy?

On the other hand, Bitcoin started to mimic the Hong Kong stock market, as measured by the Hang Seng Index (HSI). Among its top constituents are Tencent, Alibaba, and Meituan, which are billion-dollar Asian technology companies.

Bitcoin vs. Hang Seng Index (stocks). Source: TradingView

This shift in investors’ perspective — from tracking gold price to tech stocks — begs one the question of whether Bitcoin will succumb to the Hang Seng downward movement seen in the past 90 days. Does it make sense to decouple right now? If so, will Bitcoin continue to act as a safe haven amid a general correction?

On Sept. 14, China’s second-largest property developer, Evergrande Group, announced that a significant decline in sales forced the company to postpone payments over its debt. This single company has over $300 billion in liabilities, which and according to analysts this could severely impact the broader market.

In August, China’s retail sales disappointed at 2.5% versus the previous year, where investors expected a 7% growth rate. Obviously, growth and the economy were heavily impacted in 2020 by governments’ reaction to the Covid-19 outbreak.

However, one must consider that the most influential Central Banks have been practicing near zero or even negative interest rates since the Q1 of 2020. Thus, if the economy fails to gain momentum amid multiple trillion-dollar stimulus packages, there’s not much that can be done to prevent a generalized stock market correction and potential losses on debt markets.

The problem is: Bitcoin might be 12 years old, but it has never faced a significant economic crisis, at least nothing that puts the $250 trillion-plus global debt markets at risk. Therefore, any analysis or estimate will unlikely yield a credible assessment.

Bitcoin might be less impacted by a market meltdown

However, the cryptocurrency has an edge over traditional markets like commercial real estate, stocks, and bonds. Lenders will foreclose on these assets if clients default on their payments, and this adds further pressure because the bank or institution has no interest in keeping them.

On the other hand, generally speaking, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies cannot be used as collateral.

Regarding the billion-dollar Bitcoin futures liquidations on derivatives markets, those are just synthetic instruments. Undoubtedly these events will impact the price, but at the end of the day, the effective BTC stays at the derivatives’ exchange. It solely moves from the long (buyer) balance to the short (seller) account.

Until Bitcoin becomes fully entrenched in financial markets and accepted as collateral and deposits, the mid-term systemic risk for the cryptocurrency is lower than the traditional market.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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PlanB Admits $98,000 November Bitcoin Price Target ‘First Miss’

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PlanB Admits $98,000 November Bitcoin Price Target ‘First Miss’

Some investors reacted angrily after PlanB admitted that his model failed to accurately predict the price of bitcoin (BTC) for November.

The popular crypto analyst aimed for a $98,000 BTC price for the end of this month. Just last week, he insisted the price target was still possible, even as markets declined.

PlanB correctly predicted BTC reaching $47,000 in August and $43,000 in September. He slightly missed the $63,000 target for October, but said the three percent “rounding error was close enough for me.”

Now the pseudonymous Dutch investor says that his $98,000 prediction for this month “will probably be a first miss,” according to a tweet posted on Nov 25. He did not give an exact reason for the failure.

“I see this miss as an outlier, a black swan, that has not occured in the data last 10 years,” he explained.

He spoke as the price of bitcoin tanked to $55,300 on Nov 23, down 20% from its record high of $69,000 reached on Nov 10. Some analysts are blaming the decline on fears of the impending Mt. Gox BTC repayments.

Bitcoin ‘stock-to-flow model still on track to $100,000’

PlanB, who claims 25 years of financial markets experience, is famed for creating the stock-to-flow (S2F) price prediction model. The model is based on the ratio of the current supply (stock) of an asset or commodity to its annual production (flow).

It can be applied to any asset with limited supply really, and the Dutch analyst did so with bitcoin in 2019. The idea is that since the bitcoin supply diminishes with every “halving” event every four years, it will create boom and bust cycles. He then uses these cycles to forecast prices.

PlanB explained that the missed November target relates only to the “floor model,” one of his three price prediction tools. Unlike the S2F, the so-called floor model relies on price and on-chain data, he says.

He insisted the stock-to-flow model had not been “affected and indeed [was] on track towards $100,000.”

Justin Stagner put the miss into perspective. “[It is] not like you just barely missed it either. I mean, its looking like you really blew this one,” he stated.

Mounting criticism

Some investors reacted angrily to PlanB’s admission of failure, blaming the crypto analyst for their financial losses.

“I used my student loans along with a short term loan using my house as collateral to go all in at $68k because you told me it would reach $98k. Now I’ll be homeless and without a degree…” complained Twitter user Brett Lethbridge.

Another lamented: “Now your stock-to-flow model is not reliable anymore. Most people incurred great losses because of your prediction.”

However, several other people replying defended PlanB, and even thanked him for his predictions. Often, they defaulted to a familiar refrain, a disclaimer of sorts, that his forecasts are “not financial advice. Do your own research.”

PlanB himself averred:

It is indeed absurd that when you publish information for free, somehow people make you responsible for their investment decisions and actions. Everybody is responsible for their own (investment) decisions and actions. Blaming others is a sign of immaturity: NGMI (not going to make it).

The Dutch analyst has faced criticism before. He’s often accused of adjusting his price predictions lower once it becomes clear that the S2F would miss its target, and be invalidated.

Disclaimer

All the information contained on our website is published in good faith and for general information purposes only. Any action the reader takes upon the information found on our website is strictly at their own risk.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Falls Below $56,000 After Failure to Sustain Rebound Rally

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Bitcoin (BTC) Falls Below $56,000 After Failure to Sustain Rebound Rally

After initiating a bounce on Nov 25, Bitcoin (BTC) decreased considerably the next day and is back at its weekly lows.

Since Nov 19, BTC had been hovering above the $56,500 support. This is both a horizontal support area and the 0.382 Fib retracement support level.

Yesterday, technical indicators started to show some bullish signs.

After 15 successive lower momentum bars, the MACD finally created one higher (green icon). This was a sign that the short-term trend is gradually picking steam. 

Furthermore, the RSI generated a bullish divergence (green line). This is a bullish occurrence in which a price decrease is not accompanied by the same increase in selling momentum.

However, BTC reversed its trend on Nov 26 and is in the process of creating a bearish engulfing candlestick (red icon). This is a type of bearish candlestick in which the entire previous day’s increase is negated the next day. There are still more than 15 hours until the daily close, but the start of the day looks extremely bearish.

If a breakdown were to occur, the next support area would be found at $53,250.

Short-term BTC movement

The six-hour chart shows that BTC has been decreasing under a descending resistance line since Nov 19. This is a sign that BTC is correcting.

Furthermore, BTC created a lower high relative to the price on Nov 20. This is considered a bearish sign since it didn’t have enough strength to reach its previous highs.

The even shorter-term two-hour chart shows that BTC is trading inside a symmetrical triangle and is very close to its support line, which coincides with the $56,500 horizontal support area. 

Therefore, a breakdown from it would likely accelerate the drop.

Wave count

The wave count suggests that BTC is in the C wave (red) of an A-B-C corrective structure. This means that after the correction is complete, the upward movement is expected to resume. 

The sub-wave count is shown in pink. It shows that BTC is in wave five of the correction, which is the final phase. 

There is a considerable Fib confluence between $53,250-$53,800, created by: 

  • Length of sub-wave one (pink)
  • External retracement of sub-wave four (white)
  • Length of wave A (red)

These levels also coincide with the long-term Fib support outlined in the first section. Therefore, BTC is expected to reach a low in this area before reversing.

For BeInCrypto’s previous Bitcoin (BTC) analysis, click here.

Disclaimer

All the information contained on our website is published in good faith and for general information purposes only. Any action the reader takes upon the information found on our website is strictly at their own risk.

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South Korea Crypto P2P Trading Hits New Highs as Regulators Debate Taxation

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South Korea Crypto P2P Trading Hits New Highs as Regulators Debate Taxation

P2P crypto trading has hit a new all-time high in South Korea, data from LocalBitcoins shows. The jump in P2P trading comes at a time when there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding regulation in the country.

Peer-to-peer trading of cryptocurrencies in South Korea is hitting all-time highs as regulators offer some ambivalent comments on regulation. Data from LocalBitcoins shows that over 353 million in Korean Won was traded in the first week of November. This is a significant jump from previous weekly volumes.

South Korean P2P trading volume: Coin Dance

Pondering crypto tax

The increased interest in P2P trading comes as regulators are working on implementing a regulatory framework. South Korea, already one of the leading governments when it comes to cryptocurrency market regulation, is doubling down on its bid to prevent any illicit activity.

The high P2P volume may be a result of investors seeking to make the most of their capital as regulators bear down. Recent reports have indicated that there is some confusion among investors because of the lack of clarity surrounding regulation.

One of the primary issues is the implementation of crypto taxation. South Korea officials announced that it would tax the asset class, to the tune of 20%.

But lately, reports have suggested that there could be a change or complete repeal to this taxation scheme. The taxation law will come into effect in 2022, though it remains unclear about what specific form it will take.

NFT regulation is also throwing more confusion into the mix, as the Financial Services Commission (FSC) said in early November that it would not subject the special asset to taxation. However, later, the Vice Chairman of the organization said that tax provisions would be made for NFTs.

Uncertainty still looms

At the moment, it’s uncertain exactly what the regulatory landscape in South Korea will look like, given the lack of conclusion so far. The South Korean opposition party challenged the taxation scheme and pushed for a delay to 2023, demanding a more generous tax plan.

Exchanges are one of the major elements of the industry under the microscope, with 2021 seeing the first regulatory compliance certifications being sent to them. Several exchanges have had to shut down following regulatory scrutiny.

As it stands, it’s unclear what the specifics of crypto regulation will be. However, it’s almost certain that there will be a framework implemented, and whether or not it is stricter than investors like remains to be seen.

Disclaimer

All the information contained on our website is published in good faith and for general information purposes only. Any action the reader takes upon the information found on our website is strictly at their own risk.

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